An evening. Welcome to an evening how many of you are at one of our events for the first time. Welcome. Glad to hear. We have your email address. In touch once or twice a week. Hopefully youll stay with us. Thank you to our partners who hosted partners in the state. Going to run through some Upcoming Events in the will get into the program. On sunday we have a voices series is a terrific firsttime novelist talking with us. That takes place at the Santa Monica Public Library and it is free. Theres no excuse not to give you a chance to come listen to their work. Monday night, Chris Matthews come store stage. He has a new book out, he will be interviewed by Frank Buckley who is one of the morning host on ktla. On tuesday night tim oreilly is with us. His book titled what is the future wide set of tests. Then, nancy weiner next thursday and a conductor, dan lather, and others. Tina brown is next friday, and jennifer lewis, and we Just Announced her first event for 2018. Tonight were hosting scott adams. A cartoonist from the comic strip at gilbert. Hes the author of several bestsellers. Hes cofounder of. Com and work for 16 years as a technology for major bank and then when he started the column interviewing him tonight is terrance who has been in her stage several times. He helps organizations tell Better Stories in a long time host favorite show of my called freeform. Now he will host a podcast at harvard. Scott adams new book is win big leaf. Persuasion in the world amir to today. Election outcome was predicted by a lot of people differently but not scott adams. He has a lot to share about that. And the world of persuasion. Please welcome terrence and scott. [applause] i want to start by saying that on november 11, 3 days after the election, i wrote of trump and his he spoke to people who wanted to be seen and heard. His facts were wrong, his story was right. Now, i have a Major Political candidate talking to me any such a standard a politician. He is a macho, successful billionaire and tv star. He understands and respects me. And you want to base your whole campaign on running him down telling him hes not good enough to be president. Were of i heard that before . Several minutes into the first debate with hillary i turned to my wife and say were in trouble. From that night forward i knew trump selection was a serious possibility. Scott adams looking at his campaign from a highly informed perspective so much more. He calls trump the most persuasive human being and predicted his win with 90 certain a week after other said he had a 2 chance. His latest book, when bigley, he looks at the strategies trump uses and strategies that you can use anywhere. I want to the bio, but i like listeners to get a feel for the people not just the book and ideas. Tell us about how you see your path. You mean the path to khartoum . While youre working in corporations and then go into cartooning and in some ways theres hypnotism. All give you the password version. At the age of six i saw my first peanuts cartoon book. I couldnt read yet but i said finally a reason to learn to read. I decided to become a famous cartoonist because i saw other jobs, farmer, millman, and i said those didnt look nearly as good. Around the age of 11 you become rational. Is a well theres a one charles scholz, i dont like my odds. So put that on hold and work for a big bank and a number of jobs in a number of things. When my career stalled at those places in enough time went back into the real reason at the bank, my boss come in one day there is an opening for a promotion that i was the obvious person for it. An open, and she said, the Companies Getting a lot of heat because we have node diversity and management. And until further notice we cannot promote you because your white male. They settle how long a second last . Well how long did it take us to get to this point. Its like when to be fast. So i started looking for another job. I went to the phone company and work there and got on the fast track and was recognized as an upper, my boss called me up and said the local newspaper just discovered we have node diversity and senior management. We cannot promote you i dont know when that will change. Know youre thinking, youre thinking that was a bad day for me but youre wrong. Because the day find out that your effort and reward are not related to real case up your schedule so suddenly i had time for working onsite projects and i thought well i wonder if i could have a comic published somewhere he said its a tough business but here some tips so they were immediately rejected and i gave up. A year later jack said he was cleaning his office he was just writing to make sure that i have given up. Thats an important moment and i have given up. So i decided to raise my sites have become a famous cartoonist and created gilbert. Was he originally multipanel . Host what i sent it to magazines i would single panel that a lot of cartoonist you four panels is also famed economist and im thinking thats one third harder than password working for the phone company and that it was 2015 and im in front of my tv like everyone else seen this orange ball theory who has everybody and i started to notice because i have a background as a hypnotist but i was when was that, high school, junior high. Early 20s. I was influenced by my mother who is hypnotized to give birth to my younger sister and my mother reported that she was awake and aware new snow painkillers and had a painless delivery. And i thought well what is the superpower. It turns out maybe one in five people could have that effect. I thought i had to learn what it is and add it to my the resources. Sabina trained hypnotist, people might not make a connection of how that might lead to your interpretation the way that you saw donald trump sumac on top of hypnosis like that communicating everything from listening and writing and also my work my comic is designed with persuasion mechanics, i could talk about that later. When i saw trump come i didnt know that much about him. I noticed he was using like weapons grade persuasion. Essentially bringing a flamethrower to stick fight. His hands are like this but nothing in them. As if you dont study it, you dont notice it. Looks random and crazy and you say he could never get elected and unsaved all my god, thats perfect. It was so consistent. My analysis was on the narrative story thats what i look for and i just thought everything is a story. Let me talk a little bit mo more, im sure theres some people here because of that, how do you write gilbert . I used to do it every day with paper and pencil and then it works until the post office figured out who i was which was a common problem in those days. Now i do it can on a computer screen and stylus. Probably reduce my workload by 70 . The drawings are simple, the words and exchanges are the juice, do you write them out, the writing in the drawing. So i could write a sentence and then draw and write and draw and that almost ended up being a trademark approach because it violated a standard, it turned out to be the beginning of what i recall the age of realism and humor. That is changed over the year and then in the 70s it was snl and then can we say on funny because its funny. But if you look at what qualifies as humor today its reality, we watch reality tv shows to laugh. How many of you have left watching the news. Its almost designed as humor so currently a more likely to write first and draw second. In case youre wondering you wrote a few. Yes there are no blank spaces in your newspaper. He talked about how technology has changed, how has the culture change as the economy goes up and down what are some things about that world . It changes with the society. In the 90s the bosses had all the power youre scrambling to keep your job now, if youre an engineer like gilbert is, they have more power so theyre more likely to insult their boss to the face is there hard to so now youre sitting there in 2015 he comes on the escalator and you watch a couple of debates probably are some rallies how soon did you know this is something you had to write about and then how soon did you know it could be a book . I cant remember exactly. But there is too big points, one was the first debate where he got the question from megan kelly about his comments about women any normal politician thats a kill shot, sober. What a cd. You people remember, that wasnt the big grabbing like him that was just you called them pigs, some just setting and what does he do, instead of engaging like a normal human being, he cuts offenses only rocio don. So remember he had a strong feeling about Rosie Odonnell but heres the first confirmation point, its visual. He took all of the energy from the question to the answer the genius was, it wasnt an answer. He almost in care, it was so entertaining. Now if youre wondering, was that a lucky play, remind you, there was an interview with chris cuomo on cnn. In he asked another question and a possible trap imagine how units this. He said the pope has said some bad things about capitalism. What he say to the pope . What is he do . Say bad things about capitalism while running for president . Say bad things about the pope . No. Theres no way out. So he says i tell the pope to worry about isis taking over the vatican what was the question . I dont know they never got back to it it didnt matter. Its visual, provocative but before that the second row confirmation was the lowenergy job, i felt i was a little out of line because i started writing about powers of his persuasion on the first clues. I couldve been wrong, maybe luck but by the time he got to lowenergy job compared to regular insults, that was geek technique which would be visible to the audience theyre not random at all salami contrast that to the bad attempts people use about him. One that someone came up with was dangerous donald. Problem, and his supporters wanted a dangerous candidate. Someone who would drain the swamp or beat isis. Danger was too easy to flip to a positive. They also tried, chito jesus, remember that one. Its hilarious to mock him. Heres the prom, people like chitos available their jesus. You put those together and i want to take very so look at his, lowenergy job. Cant turn that into a positive. The moment you heard it he said thats an unusual thing to say contacts a politics and watch how often he uses hes consistently operating in this thin band. Its just always a little not what a president should say. So the little bit wrong secant look away. That is this highenergy campaign. Before you heard the probably thought, this jeb bush guy looks like a calm collected executive. I could see him as president. The moment you heard lowenergy and in comparison to highenergy trump you can see him the same again. Same with other nicknames like cooking hillary. You could guarantee something would come up with the foundation. Doesnt matter if any of its true you be drawn to that nickname and reinforced. When you say it doesnt matter, you be drawn how broadly do mean that . Do you have to be somewhat inclined toward him for it to really work or will it sorta work with everybody. In the context of the president ial race get Something Like 5050 no matter what. Facts dont matter towards his decisions but matter towards the outcomes. But we probably had more like an 8020, 20 are paying attention but the others got it so your part trying to persuade 2 of the public who can be persuaded over 18 months. When you have the best persuader the world may have never seen. I know not everybodys buying into this concept yet or is he says is true, its true you have 18 months to work on the public and nonstop coverage, youll get it done. By the way, you didnt just say you predicted he would win, you predicted a 90 chance he would win. And when did you do that . 2015. It was at the same time they said the 2 . Im also trained in persuasion. Why did i think it was 90 . Is it because i did the math . No. Its because they said 2 . You can get that connection out of your head. I intentionally tied my reputation to the most respected predictor in the field so is easy to imagine at the same time in other words, this is new business so you bask in the sentences that say 98 when he says to. I often say one of the signals for someone trained in persuasion is that they can change fields without practice. He became a reality tv star without any practice. Steve jobs to go to college and a few other businesses that also succeeded. As i said, from as i watched him i was mesmerized, horrified, depressed, all that with what he was able to including upending peoples worldviews. Yesterday you thought the world was, and so even if you lost her persuasion would be worth the book, but i also believe that a marginally smarter campaign in the rust belt may have beaten him. What happens to your prediction of 90 the . Im not stupid so if i have been wrong i wouldve embarrassed for a year and but i have an unnatural ability to deal with shane to practice skill. I could disrobe, not going to actually learn skill,. So to hear there is you looking at him as the master but in choosing the book in the 90 and going out on the limb youre following many of the same technique. I consider myself a commercial grade persuader. If you hear anybody say that i have something wrong in your cognitive scientist, dont leave me and then above the the master persuaders theres something about their personality and risk taking, something bigger than the persuasion skills. You say that notion that he has a distortion, that use the description of a master persuasion. Once youre focused on this thinking and blogging about it, did you try to figure out how did this happen . How did he become a master persuader . A lot of people do not know his pastor was Norman Vincent he had a close connection to the most motivational boast selling author who wrote the power of positive thinking. He was the person who thought you could think your way to a better situation. You see that intron. He was an interview and said we had 3 gdp but without the hurricane it would been 4 . No normal president would say we get 3 , thats great. But hes every talked the economy into 4 . And whos watching . The people who invest. Thats what make it sit for percent. The economy moves on psychology. Theres no resource shortage. He had a father a Good Business negotiation probably saw firsthand. Obviously he knows branding, you know sales. He knows marketing and has a sense of humor. His he great communicator quick on his feet. Hes even tall and has something going on appear. Watch emily persuaders of something were going on there. He has the full package of skills on top of his personality and size. Reading your book made me stop and think. I often thought he was some sort of savant. I watch him play a crowd and where did you get the near getting that to become his work and at this. If you write a book about how to negotiate its important to you. His quirkiness. Let me ask about bernie sanders. Bernie drew crowds at least his biggest trump elicited similar passion and loyalty into things he does is he does dealer narratives, narrative of class in history. He comes across as authentic hes not polished, but he doesnt seem to be the persuader that trump is. Will they might have a better answer what happened bernie, but wouldnt you agree that bernie outperformed compared to what you expected . And did you notice, maybe you didnt that Hillary Clintons persuasion gave was prophetic pathetic until things drop down. She went from limitary about my boring politics and then she went to, these dark and hes going to destroy the world. She used fear and as soon as i saw it and all the pundits i got the memo, its a dark speech i said, i think i know who is advising her. And i think he was advising bernie before. Remember bernie had the most awardwinning campaign in, the one where simon and garfunkel. I got chills when i wash it. It was so good. Then suddenly, she went from nothing to something. I speculated one of the greatest persuaders of all time and have joined her team after leaving the sinking bernie ship. Ive been called godzilla in my blog skits i didnt want to name him. But i thought i saw the fingerprint on the work. Ive seen a book called presuasion before most people had from robert and presuasion talked about things like using that word dark that would just prime you to see things in a different way. I thought, i see his fingerprint. Ive finally set a publicly set true a reporter and he tracked it down the center you consulting for clinton and his comment was, no comment. Now, if youre not consulting for president do you say no . I dont think so. Then some of his associates confirmed that it was. Keep in mind i picked that up from one word because it was so wellchosen. And i requisite from his writing. But think people who have the same training ahead could have recognized it. It wasnt magic, its a result of training. Some of the things that i saw bernie with or without the raw, authentic, passionate how does that fall into persuasion . Working against them, he didnt have a good visual. His hair was the crazy hair maybe it needs to be crazier or more orange his biggest secret was he was promising people free money for nothing. You dont have to be the best persuader in the world, free healthcare, free college you get some energy. He had a good advisor have lots of questions. If i wash trump now his most successful move our executive orders in choosing the Supreme Court justice, neither of which call for much persuasion. Who is he persuading these days . Keep in mind he didnt get to do those until he persuaded enough people for him to be president. Now its a whole new bag. He has to persuade his face, even the republican senators who hate him and cant stop talking about what a bad person his. So the entire republican side pretty much dancing as long as his basis passionate. If we go on a point by point level is he persuading isis . Compare obamas approach which is where going to leave and at days which persuades isis to stay around, we just wait them out. Trump says that persuasion. Were you say were here forever when i can adjust tracy were to destroy you. Them worse in the first surrenders. Isis has largely been wiped out. Part of this is how they treated the military. He told mattis to figure it out and the morale is probably the best its ever been. Certainly the economy he has talked up, yes, obama is responsible for 75 of the good times. Obama was great. In 2009 when things were going to hell you dont want the orchard it on the the lawyer who says is going to be okay ive looked into it so he gets credit for the strong base. Clearly there is a trump bump to the economy. I have isis and the economy and i think pretty well true now, hes in china. China loves him. Hes a rock star. Shes clearly persuading. But they have this lovely dance at the time where this alliance is crucial to north korea. Are they persuaded . I have a feeling that little rocket man for the first time doesnt know if he will be a live in a month. That has never been the case before i would guess. That does make a difference. On like his brother. So, i would say maybe for the first time a chance something could happen in north korea if you counts chinas persuasion. What other topics,. Healthcare tax cuts. Healthcare, you notice he stood back and let Congress Take the lead. He did not persuade, not really. Didnt even care what was he said bringing something to my desk. Youve had years to work on this wheres my bill. He said im the guy who signs it. I can do my part bring me something i can sign, they didnt. The only way youll get a Health Care Bill is way he played it. Let the republicans go first, feel hard, try again, feel hard, realize they have no hope. Meanwhile, scare the pants off the left because theyre saying what they have in mind. The what is he do he says maybe i should talk to the democrats. If youre saying to yourself his and got healthcare done in the time you had hoped, true enough. But was there deadline for that . He is letting obama care fail, thats part of the persuasion. The way he is sabotaging it. Yes, hes making things worse until theyre desperate and people are ready for someone to come in and say the only way this works is if you meet in the middle. He cant predict exactly how long this will play out. If it look like that plays out 2018 and is not a republican midterm, in some sense visit theres two ways to in, no way to lose. I always had the feeling that his brand survives no matter what happens to the republicans. I think the surprise would be if the democrats had some big wins in them republicans lost the majority, think he has a better chance of negotiating something in the middle. The worst case is a republican majority shoving something down the throats of the last left in the country. You need somebody on the other side. Lets go back to the foundation. Youd think they are rational they think they understand their reality, they are wrong. It was my sense that its the foundation for everything else. One thing you learn is a hypnotist is the common view of the world is upside down. Humans are rational creatures, we use reason and look at facts. 10 of the time we get crazy but we figured doesnt happen to us. Hypnotist says where irrational 90 of the time and dont know it. Because we rationalize after the fact. Only a few things like balancing checkbook are searching for things online is rational. Until you understand word irrational you cant be a hypnotist. I learned this many decades ago, before scientific backing. The hypnotist to say just acts like its true and watch what happens. They did try to put science on it. But now theres books out there and tons of science so that humans dont use rational thoughts to make decision. If half the countrys gonna go the way they are no matter who runs, how much factors in the. You go to the Grocery Store and people with five different religions shopping next you, some are reincarnated something to look live forever, but look it turns out that evolution never cared if you understood your reality. He said if you read some cognitive scientist the difference from what i say trumps them. Is there anything in particular you recommend. If you google the phrase persuading reading list, youll come up with my list. Let me ask you about things we may or may not have mentioned falling from the were not rational, one key thing is confirmation bias, what is that . Dont have access stow facts. But i think already lest anything this is what we do when were in high school and we think a girl likes us or we dont. Its like, its everything, isnt citizen. Once you realize its not the exception, ive talk about that and times of dissidence as the operating system for the human mind. These are not the flaws in the operating system. This is the operating system. This is our normal. Yeah. Cognitive dissonance. Almost hard to believe if you havent been exposed to it. After the trump experience, most people have heard the term. Refers to the fact if something violates your sense of what is tour, especially about yourself, you will instantly rewrite the movie in your head to reinterpret it, and sometimes ridiculously so. Until it is just something that other people look at it and say issue think you have lost it. Youre now crazy. The person who is in it thinks its perfectly rational. Only looks crazy on the outside. Now, again, if you think, well, thats sounds like a terrible thing to happen to other people, youre missing the point. Were all in our bubble. All the time. But an example. Not in the campaign but widely cognitive dissonance. You say a sick rate smoker, quit miking. Boom dont like to think of themselves as have nothing will power and not being aware of the science its going to tell you. So you get crazy lances like, knew somebody who smoked three packs a day and they had a 15 barbecues and drank ten beers and thrived 110. So what . Whats that got to do with you . Yeah. Got it. You mentioned this thing about visual persuasion. Is that that if you can Say Something which makes something appear in someone elses minds eye, if you will, this is if a picture is worth a thousand word, visual piece of persuasion is worth a thousand words. If youre to rank the different type of persuasion, fear is all the top. Dont take care of your fear you cant do anything else. The nonfear category, visual persuasion is very powerful because were visual creatures. The visual part of your mind just sort of overrules the other parts. So, look at imagine if the candidate trump did not have this visual persuasion, and he describing border security. He might have said, well, wed like tighter border security. Well use a variety of means. Depends on the terrain, some terrain we do this or that. No. He said were building a wall. We all see a wall. And as soon as he says that were all presenting the wall a big, beautiful then gets better. More technique. He said, im going to make mexico pay for it. Again, its that cant by right. But maybe, well, its wrong, but maybe. And so you obsess on it. While youre thinking about the question of now arguing about who is going to build the wall. Once you argue about who is paying for it, has become more accepted. Theres going to be some kind of wall. How the hell are we paying for that thing . You see him use that technique a lot. Its making you think past the in the book, these things are laid out like this. So, you can get it, you can stew about the campaign, you can get either excited or fume or whatever you want but he is delivering how to use the same technique. Try too mike it useful. One thing found curious, if your sons sense of humors is an asset, talent, and yet ive hear a number of people say i dont think ive ever seen him laugh. Whats going on there . I heard somebody say that, and i think i might have said it somewhere upon periscope that people send me pictures of him laughing. Host but where staff recommends. Perhaps in public. Nobody a has that fine of sense of humor and doesnt laugh. That would be very unusual. The sense of humor is in things like the os odonnell line, which came am improver couldnt come up with a quicker. One thing people dont understand about his sense of humor, i grew up in upstate new york. Theres a regional sense of humor. Things that new yorkers would say and do that would be paul appalling to the californiaians. The john mccain joke, i prefer people who dont get caught. With all due respect to the people in the military, heat a wellknown joke form. What makes nat funny to the people who laughed at home. You dont lat a people present at the joke. What make is funis the wrongness of it. The people who are laughing at that, theyre not laughing at mccain or veterans. Theyre laughing at how completely wrong to say and he knew it was wrong when he said it. It was complete lay bad move. That was i dont count that in his whims on the front. He makes mistakes. But it was based on dish think he had a blind spot, in new york its funnier than in california. One thing i found interesting , scott talks bit his own just sort of the very upfront, this is my politics, and another interesting one for me, which i want to get into, these are my filters. Found that very interesting. So if we can get a second after i ask this one. Let me ask you about your filters. You said you dont vote. Why not . Correct. When you in persuasion one thing you learn this is one of the stronger fakes. As soon as you join a team, you vote for the team, and you start confirmation bias will make you think that everything the team does is smart and brilliant. So i tried to keep myself unaligned from an identifiable team to try to preserve what little i can of my objectivity. Im not blind to the fact im a human being and therefore i may have an exaggerated sense of how objective i can be, but i do what i can. There are things to do to try be objective. Im going press on you. Voting doesnt say youre on a team. It says when it came down to it, that day, you made a choice. Doesnt mean i mean you dont want your. You depressant want your choice to do poorly. You have made your decision way ahead of time. Now, likewise, because i youre saying the act of voting is not it. Its that once youre in that mode, as you said, youre sort of rooting and begin to very few people made up their mind at the voting booth. This happened long before that. So, youre reinforcing your bias for months and months before that. So, would we have a problem if everyone began to good, want to be objective in this . If nobody else voted i would vote. The value of your vote would go way up. I found one interesting statistic. Trump won 4929 among those who didnt like either candidate. Thats a huge victory. What does that have to do with persuasion. The first president whose popularity, when they do the poll or approval white house approval may forever stay in the toilet, while peoples assumption about how he is doing in the job could float much liar. A huge disconnect. We already see it. Consumer confidence and wall street confidence, the stock market, there are people who are judging the biggest issues as being quite competent, but when they look at the approval, they say, do you proof of him . The think of something he said that was unkind, it was over the line, they say, i cant approve of that. I like my 401 k , but thats a separate issue. I think his incompetence ill put it in quotes since we dont necessarily agree on that could not be what buffers us from the effects of what we dont approve of . If he didnt get anything done, then the stock market might as well do what it does because hes not at relevant as micromanaging. Keep in mind. This is a fascinating thing. If i have conversation with someone who is very antitrumper, i can say they can say, what has he done . And ill make a list thats this long and a minute and a half later that person, who just saw the list, will say but he hasnt gotten anything done. Think, thats my perfect example of what call the two movies on one screen. We literally are seeing a different movie although were sitting in the same theater. I predicted over a year ago the way the year would play out, start on inauguration okay with, my god, we have elect hitler lawsuit but after a few months of no hitler stuff, you havent rounded up anything in concentration camp but he is totally incompetent. Theres chaos. After the summer and we start to see some accomplishments, isis, economy, maybe some movement with north korea, healthcare still going to be problematic but people thing thats congress. In our mind thats more of congress. In a way he didnt with it. Yeah. But at the end of the year, all the news organizations are going to start putting together their lists of what happened, and its going be a long list. You are not going to like it because its going to be republican stuff, and if youre not one youll say i dont like that stuff. But its going to be a long list and that will we really interesting. Predict that by that team people would say, all right you did get a lot done but we dont like the regulations he has cut but he did cut a lot of them and that is stuff republicans want. Its that the appointments he made of people who wanted to do away with the agencies theyre running, are doing that that will make up a great deal of the long list, is that yeah. Its interesting how many executive orders he signed that i dont see a lot of analysis of all the damage its doing. Now, i assume that theyre not all good. On paper some of them look like really bad ideas. To get rid of this regulation or this protection. On the surface, they dont look like good ideas but you dont hear the counterpoint. Netting nerdy but an executive order only starts the ball rolling. Thats one thing about the wonderful flourish when you hold it up, its as if it is done and all that does is begin to move the levers and the bad effects or good effects going to show up for months or jeers so on. Ted, are we about ready to go to question . Okay. I will let ted take it from here. Time for questions. The rules are questions generally start with a w or an h, sometimes a d. Theyre typically short. There i no such thing as a twopart question, and only Terrence Mcnally tonight gets to ask followup questions. Thank you, scott. A question on godzilla. You say you think he was helping hill hillary but did he stop helping . Did it stop at some point . Because we didnt see the lets say, the wave overcome donald trump. Can you comment. Toward the end you had two of the best persuaders going headtohead, and sometimes king kong beats godzilla and that is what happened. I predicted more of a landslide than a win by trump, and i was actually surprised that it was as close as it was. I wasnt totally surprised because by the summer before the election, when he started the dark persuasion, i recognized that as weapons grade, and i thought, okay, now this is a whole new game. If she kept on the way she started, let me tell you about my policies and im a woman. Elect me because im a woman. That was just that would have been annihilation by election dade, but she upped her game. Next question here on your right. Thank you. If were 90 irrational over here hi. If were 90 irrational, whats your irrational thinking . I dont understand that. Well, if were being irrational. What are you being irrational about . Oh. What things in general aim irrational about . Yes. The beauty is that the only person who cant tell is the person who you ask the question of. If i could recognize my owner rationality i would say, whoa, i better cut this out right now ump lets use some facts. Thats the unanswerable question. Were all potentially in our own little bubble and we cant tell. What do you think trumps chances are in 2020 . Im not convinced he would run in 2020 if he has a really good four years, and i think things are lining up if he gets a little motion on north korea, maybe that looks better and theres something that looks Like Health Care and the economy is strong and isis stays beaten, he is going to be unbeatable, but he also knows how to go out on top. So, given his age, which is a real concern, it will only get worse, especially be hitting that age range where its hard to believe theres not a problem. Your best supporter is going say, you know, i dont know, what that clever or trump enough . His best play to preserve the trump brand and his presidency might be one term. But hes also competitive as hell, so if theres something undone, that he thinks he can do, might be just a pitbull and just say, give me four more years and ill try to get this other thing done. I think maybe 50 chance would even run no matter how the four years go. Hi, scott. What is your technique for floor confirmation bias in the news, given all the fake news . The first thing i do when i see something reported that is new and maybe a head scratcher, i check the other networks, because the networks are pretty good at getting the facts right. Just the basic factsment what theyre terrible at is a nonbiased interpretation because they use the amount of time they spend on one thing versus the other, the number of guests, the type of guests they have on what the guests say. So they bury the facts with opinion, and i just try to sample both sides, and it real if you go between fox news and cnn, youre changing universes. Msnbc even more so. Yes. So, i try to stick to the facts and see both sides of the confirmation bias, and then if i see that theres two completely believable interpretations, but completely different, tend not believe either one. That just tells you its easy to come up with my story that fits the facts, which is often the case. Hi, scott. Thank you for coming out. Do you have any predictions youre willing to divulge outside of the political arena . Yeah. So, this is probably my prediction that is least likely to come true. Im going to put it out there anyway. Think i messengered i dont have shame like regular people. The football kneelers, i think by the end of the year, the full season, that the teams who knelt, had more people kneeling, will underperform, meaning they wont beat the spread. They wont necessarily win because the better team wins but i think thats enough of a distraction and a mental distraction, first of all. You cant really do two important things at the same time. And the kneeling would take you out of the football mode and put you in a whole other mode and people look at you. Then the hatred from your on fans. The home,field advantage is sacrifice it. They say, yeah, i hate that asshole and theres something about the physical act of getting on one knee that might activate hires the speculation might activate the part of your brain that is submissive. Subjugated. The king is not the one who kneels. Understand its an act of defiance, and in this specific context, it is actually a strong an act. Heres the thing. Day one, its strong. By the 12th week, youre just kneeling. And heres the thing. Your body and your brain are pretty connected. Theres research that says if youre if you force yourself to smile, your happiness chemistry in your brain can be activated, the same in reverse, if youre happy, youll smile but if you smile you can cause yourself to be happen. Im jump income here but theres one i wanted to ask that i frogot. The being that you lacking shame. You the same thing about trump, one reason he can be so wrong is it doesnt matter. Is a watch him, he is both thinskinned and thickskinned. Both hypersensitive and a bull. What is that about . Confirmation bias. Heres the thing. Can you imagine that he didnt know how he would be treated when he ran for president . He made this choice to be just host start out with the whole rapist thing. Everything just indicated the knew what he was getting into, and he was okay with it. The think you call thinskinned, anytime somebody attacks him, he immediately respond. Thats how you interpret it some essence it seems out of proportion, thats just a flea . Hires the thing. Notice at least within the context of the campaign now, the people he attacks are the professionals. Hes not going after a citizen who said something on social media. Hes going after professional journalists, writers, politicians, and the case of, say, the khan they were guilty by association. Doing a political public thing for political people. The technique here is that dish had a coworker who became the model for the owl character in the strip because i saul the technique. If somebody did something she wanted, it was like favor or something, she would immediate glow to their boss say you have the best employees. You should promote this person because they were doing what she wanted. But if something didnt do what she wanted, the would good to the boss and say, you got to get rid of this idiot. This is horrible. Get rid of him. She would create this giant difference, gap, contrast, everything about persuasion is contrast, bad and good. Everybody knew that make her happy when she would give you flowers in the office, literally, bring you flowers. She would praise you. Get you promoted for doing what she santa and had amazing control over the office, at the same level as her peers because of that. When trump when somebody does something that trump likes, for example, when i was on cnn he liked what i said, and apparently he was watching from air force one, and the message came through, the one interviewing me got the message, and i got the word that he like it, and also got the word that he like it. Or that he was watching anything, the same thing. And he compliments and helps the people who help him and goes hard every time, every time, deputy matter if your republican but you have to be a professional. If you see him going after somebody who said something on social media, then you have to worry. That wouldnt be technique. That would be thinskinned. But as long as he keeps that line, i think youre okay. Time for two more questions. Hi, scott. My question is, how will trump persuade Robert Mueller . Well, thats a good question. Let me give you a related store so you can fill in the black. When he said that awful thing about judge curio. Cant gate fair trial because he is mexican. People say, my god, what a racist, cant be a fair judge because he is mexican. That wasnt what was going on. If you talk to your neighbor and say, tell me about yourself . Theres a good chance your neighbor will say, were italian, but it means theyre all born in america, just have italian heritage. The way people talk about them is exactly the way trump talked about the judge. I was at dinner not long ago where a young man was describing himself and said he was mexican. Three generations born in this country and he was 20 mexican, but he said, im mexican. The pay people talk about themselves help was using the shorthand, the common language, but it was big mistake. However, by bringing up the potential bias, which is common in the legal context, very uncommon in the political context and belong to every bay but in the legal context, which was more important to him at the moment, bias is very important. So you point it out, and then what happened when judge curial had to rule on when the trial would be held, it could have been before the election, which would have been a disaster, and that is normally when it would have been theres theres no reason to publish i out. Instead the judge gave him a little extra consideration, and he put it after the election, and it might have well been the difference between winning and losing the election. Now, did the judge have to do that . He didnt. Was he treating him like every other person in the legal system . I dont think so i. Think he gave him extra consideration there. Would he have done that if the president had not called out to the entire world this judge might be biased . He took away his option. In the context of the legal case, it was brilliant. In the condition texas of the way he word it and the political situation, just looked like a damn racist. But if you ask somebody like alvin dershowitz who was on the oj trial, among other things, is bias a legitimate thing to bring up in a legal context . He would say, yes, thats my job. That what i do. Bring up bias all the time on every level. Nothing off the table. Certainly if your entire family heritage is in a group that you imagine there might be some people who would not be happy with a judge at the next thanksgiving, if he has ruled in favor of trump, thats legitimate. The legal context. Its legitimate in almost every other context and we would like it that way. Dont want it so the point is, bob mule mueller . Look fog theirs trump says in public to moneyas mueller, to make him give the president a little extra consideration because he doesnt want to play into the trap that the president is setting, which im not sure youre being fair here. Has to try a little harder to look extra fair. One could even say that happened with comey. Yeah. Not the firing but the coming out on october 28th with the, were looking at new emails. You can exactly say this, yes, comey probably was persuaded to flip the opposite direction. To go above and beyond what he had to do. Because he was extra good to clinton at first and then went the other way. Probably true. Our final question for the evening. Your opening question when you came out and asked if this was going to be a loss style audience a hostile audience, was that a persuasive technique . [laughter] no, i was hoping it was going to be. The hostile audience just has lots of energy, and i have no shame, so it would have been actually kind of fun. Was hoping for anything short of violence to happen here today. But you have all been extra nice so far. A funny thing, when youre back stage you can hear things in the audience exheard it as murmuring and you used a word that was much more rumbling. You were already putting them na that role. Yeah. Thanks, terrence, thanks, scott, thank you all for coming. [applause] scott has a lingering issue with his hands so is unable to sign books but happy to sign happy to take a photograph. If you drove, please go gently and perhaps well see you at an upcoming event. [inaudible conversations] heres a look at books being published this week [inaudible conversations] good morning. Yes, you can applaud. Applaud applaud