and stay with us here on bbc news for continuing coverage and analysis from our team of correspondents in the uk and around the world. good evening from carmarthen. more than half way through this general election campaign, we're in wales tonight, looking at the political landscape of the nation and how it may change after polling day. we've been also been asking you to get in touch and tell us about the issues you want the bbc to cover through your voice, your vote. we'll be hearing about green energy and the possible impact of its infrastructure on this beautiful landscape. we'll have more on that in a few minutes — but first, reform uk launched its manifesto today, or contract, as the party calls it. the launch took place by chance in south wales. as well as policies on immigration, nigel farage outlined pledges on tax and the nhs. with more details, here's our political correspondent alex forsyth. there was something of a stir outside this community club in merthyr tydfil. all eyes on a party that's certainly been attracting attention. will this be your big break? well, we'll try. nigel farage was here to set out reform uk's policy platform. and wales, where labour is in charge, was a deliberate choice for a party trying to pitch itself as the opposition. people actually need some sense of being inspired, some sense of believing that somebody up at the front that believes in what they say, says what they believe and is going to show a way forward for the country. what they call a contract with the voters features plans to cut immigration on page one, proposing limits on who can come to the uk to work or live, and a pledge to stop the small boats. i have said from the start, this should be the immigration election. and there was more. plans to cut taxes, abolish nhs waiting lists, ditch net zero policies and reform benefits to get people into work. you accuse other parties of broken promises but isn't this really a list of unrealistic promises, a wish list rather than a serious plan? it is a promise that this is what we are going to campaign for over the course of the next five years. i said at the very start, we are not going to be in government this time but we are going to provide a voice of opposition. he says he makes no apology for a radical platform but do the sums add up? you are proposing some really significant tax cuts in this contract, billions of pounds�* worth, in part paid for by a £50 billion squeeze on wasteful government spending. what is going to go? the size of departments. what we are arguing for here is a very modest cut, a very modest cut... £50 billion a year. £5 in a hundred and that's the job of the whitehall bosses, is to save £5 in a hundred and anyone who's ever worked in the private sector will tell you, when times are tough, you have to cut things. and times are tough, you know? we are massively in debt, we have to become more efficient. so there would be cuts to public services to be clear? times are tough, there will be cuts to public services. no, we have no desire for any cuts at all from the concept of things being free from the point of delivery. so you can take £50 billion out of government spending with no cuts to public services? you know what? the french have exactly the same amount of money being put in and get better returns on all health indices. we can do better. he'll hope his pitch has popular appeal. the question is how far it might take his party. alex forsyth, bbc news. ben chu from bbc verify has been looking at some of reform's pledges — and can tell us more. yes, jane, let's break down the economic pledges of reform's contract, which is what they're calling their manifesto. there will be large personal tax cuts, including lifting the threshold for paying income tax to £20,000 per year, lowering fuel duty by 20p per litre and scrapping vat on energy bills. then there are some large spending pledges, including increasing defence spending to 3% of gdp within six years, increasing nhs spending by £17 billion a year. so how is all this to be paid for? well, reform says it would slash government waste, including by stopping the bank of england paying commercial banks interest, saving £35 billion per year and scrapping net zero environmental targets, saving £30 billion a year, and halving the foreign aid budget, saving £6 billion a year. now, economists, including those at the independent institute for fiscal studies, are doubtful about many of these claims. for instance, on banking, this is complex but what you need to know is that this would effectively be a tax on the commercial banks and experts estimate it will be likely raise less than £10 billion a year, not £35 billion. and most economists judge that the cost of the uk failing to pursue net zero will ultimately be greater than the cost of achieving it. and what about immigration? well, reform says they would freeze nonessential migration within the first 100 days. economists say this could take some pressure off housing but that it also raises the question of precisely how nonessential would be defined for immigration, and they caution that interpreted strictly, this could have a negative economic impacts, including on staffing public services. finally, let's put the reform manifesto in context. here is the rough size of the tories, lib dem and labour manifestos in tax and spending terms between £7 billions and £27 billion per year. and here is the green party's, £172 billion. and here is reform, £141 billion. as you can see, reform and the greens really tower over the other parties and public finance experts feel that while individual elements of the latter two parties�* programmes might be coherent, they feel that overall, there is a lack of credibility. jane. so let's talk to our deputy political editor, vicki young, at westminster. we have heard nigel farage�*s long term plans. how do you assess what his impact could be on this campaign? it his impact could be on this campaign?— his impact could be on this cam-nain? ., , ., his impact could be on this cam-cain? ., , ., ., . campaign? it was an unusual launch because nigel— campaign? it was an unusual launch because nigel farage _ campaign? it was an unusual launch because nigel farage laid _ campaign? it was an unusual launch because nigel farage laid out - campaign? it was an unusual launch because nigel farage laid out these| because nigel farage laid out these policies but said, i will not implement any of them because i will not win the election, so he would say he was being very honest. partly it is because of the electoral system, it's hard for small parties to win seats, he might only end up with a few but that doesn't mean that reform no will have no impact. they are siphoning off hundreds of thousands of votes from the tories, it makes it harder for the conservatives to fight off labour. how are the tories dealing with this? interesting they laid out policies you think might attract those who are thinking of voting reform, things like national service and lower taxes. it doesn't seem to be working and the tories now warning people thinking of voting reform, you will end up with a large labour majority. nigel farage believes people are frustrated with the political system and he thinks people are turning to him because they don't trust either labour or they don't trust either labour or the conservatives, and he hopes his party will be the beneficiary of that. ., ~ party will be the beneficiary of that. . ~ , ., party will be the beneficiary of that. ., ~' , ., x' party will be the beneficiary of that. . ~ i. a ., party will be the beneficiary of that. . ~ , ., a ., . that. thank you, vicki young and there will be _ that. thank you, vicki young and there will be more _ that. thank you, vicki young and there will be more analysis - that. thank you, vicki young and there will be more analysis of. that. thank you, vicki young and | there will be more analysis of the reform pledges on newsnight with victoria derbyshire. we reform pledges on newsnight with victoria derbyshire.— reform pledges on newsnight with victoria derbyshire. we will examine the promise — victoria derbyshire. we will examine the promise to _ victoria derbyshire. we will examine the promise to wipe _ victoria derbyshire. we will examine the promise to wipe out _ victoria derbyshire. we will examine the promise to wipe out nhs - victoria derbyshire. we will examine the promise to wipe out nhs waitingj the promise to wipe out nhs waiting list of 7.5 million in england within two years and their patriotic curriculum for schools. what does that mean? join us live at half past ten. 0njuly 4th, labour will be hoping to expand their dominance in wales, while the conservatives are defending the ground they won last time. in 2019, welsh labour won 22 seats, making them the largest party despite the performance of the conservatives, who won their greatest number of seats since the thatcher years, with 1a, and plaid cymru won four seats. but this election will be the first since a major boundary review — and that has cut the number of mps in wales from a0 to 32. 0ur wales correspondent hywel griffith has been looking at the political landscape in the run up to voting day. at the whitland livestock market, they know all about making decisions under pressure. but when it comes to choosing who to vote for, there seems to be reticence, resentment even. you know, what government is going to help the farmers at the minute because we feel unsupported a bit. none of them are for farming, are they, really. so do you feel forgotten or marginalised? well, yeah, that's why we don't vote. brexit has changed the landscape for welsh farmers and the subsidies they receive, leaving some here angry with both the uk conservative government and the labour administration in wales. labour has been the dominant force in welsh politics for over a century. for the last 25 years, it's been the party of government in wales, responsible for health, education and agriculture. in this election, its record in power has come under real scrutiny. so has its new leader in wales, vaughan gething, who lost a vote of no confidence in the senedd, but insists he can lead labour to success. i'm confident that i can regain the trust of the senedd. i'm confident that i can do the job i've been elected to do just a few short weeks ago. and people will see the difference that we can make with two labour governments working together. yes, we're here and we're ready to start. if change is coming, the parents here in ammanford want to feel it in their pockets. the cost of living and childcare in particular can feel punishing. people are skint and my classes certainly, i've got parents on maternity leave so they are looking for ways to cut corners. what's important to me is that we can provide l for the family, and at the minute, by the time i go back to work, - it's all going on childcare. the offerforfamilies in wales is different to england, less generous, say the conservatives. we've got a labour government in wales for 25 years. they haven't done much about the cost of living standards. we've handed money over to the welsh government for things like childcare, the 30 hours of free childcare every week. that hasn't been passed on. what we have seen is millions of pounds being spent on things like the extra senedd members. for plaid cymru, this election is all about being seen and cutting through, trying to convince voters they can be a force in westminster. to me it's about maximising wales' voice always. we're in politics because we don't think this is as good as it gets for wales and we are in politics fighting for westminster because we need somebody to be speaking up for wales. plaid cymru will always do that. for voters here in carmarthenshire, it's almost time to pick a winner and decide who they want their voice to be. hywel griffith, bbc news, carmarthen. there's a full list of the candidates standing in the general election available on the bbc news website. throughout the campaign, we've been asking you to contact us through your voice your vote. one of you got in touch about a plan to build a huge wind farm in radnor forest, 60 miles north—east of here, and a corridor of pylons down the towy valley — to connect into the national grid near here in carmarthen. 0ur correspondent colletta smith has been to speak to some of the people affected. if you come up here and look over this gate, where the fir trees are, it'll run all the way through this valley. dina's been so shocked by big plans for turbines and pylons here that she got in touch with us here at the bbc. my father was brought up just over the hill. so it means a lot to us all. but i don't want my grandchildren turning round to my daughter and saying, "what did you and nana do about it?" at least i've said something. this project would take energy produced in giant turbines on a 60 mile pylon pathway spanning almost the width of wales cutting across this landscape. people come here to the upper tywi valley for the rural delights, peace and quiet, the dark skies. you use electricity, we all do, we are using more of it, we are needing more of it, it needs to come from somewhere, doesn't it? it does. carpeting the counties of rural wales with turbines is effectively curing the disease but killing the patient. wherever energy is produced, whether it's on a hill here in powys, or up in perthshire, it's connecting in to the same national energy grid in britain. that means whoever is in charge in westminster is responsible for working out the decisions about that mix of energy supply and how many points there are to connect it into the grid. industry groups say offshore energy won't be enough for wales or the uk to meet net zero targets. 0nshore wind is the cheapest, it's the quickest to build and it's the most readily deployable technology we have for renewable energy and we desperately need to upscale the amount of renewable energy we are producing if we are going to be anywhere near meeting our targets in the next decade. but many of those impacted don't agree. dyffryn and carys are fighting plans for two pylons in theirfields. they want the wires to go underground instead. we're stood under these oak trees that have been here hundreds of years and these plans could just destroy that. so you would be happy to have cables running under your land right through the farm? sure. they've taken a short—sighted view land bearing in mind that the restl i of us will be living with these i pylons for generations to come. this part of the world now feels suspended between britain's green energy priorities and its untouched natural beauty. and colletta's here, along with bbc wales's political editor, gareth lewis. coletta, all the parties have something to say about onshore wind. we know energy prices are a crucial issue in this election and there are millions of households still struggling to afford just to pay energy bills, so it's a really prickly issue for whoever eventually gets those keys for number ten downing street. labour say, gets those keys for number ten downing street. laboursay, in gets those keys for number ten downing street. labour say, in terms of onshore wind, they want to work with private companies to double the amount by 2030. the conservatives say they are considering reducing energy bills. the lib dems say we need to remove the current restrictions, as they call it, on onshore wind. plaid cymru and the snp both say there needs to be a careful balance between onshore wind developments and the natural environment. reform have said net zero is pushing up people's bills and the green party say that onshore needs to be a significant part of that renewable mix. there are no simple answers. that's the difficulty with this issue. whatever decisions are made will impact all of our bills and it's important to remember they will have a physical impact in place like this. gareth, there's an awful lot going on here isn't there. this location is synonymous with welsh political history and drama. it's where the first plaid cymru mp was in 1966, carmarthenshire was the final and decisive county in the 1997 devolution referendum. the question is, will there be a red wave sweeping anything before its part? will plaid cymru rule enough labour voters to win target seats? will the conservative attacks on the welsh labour government record on nhs waiting times see them hang on where they are trying to if labour wins, there is different than it, with a uk labour government at a welsh labour government. you can start to see some tensions already emerging over things like future devolution of power or not, future money, this will or not, so plenty of drama and intrigue and subplots still to come. and that's all from us here in carmarthen tonight. reeta, back to you. well, staying with the election, as you know, we've been testing claim and counter—claim — with particularly close scrutiny of the two main westminster parties. senior labourfigures have been claiming that homeowners will pay £11,800 more on their mortgage if the conservatives win the election. it's an assertion that nick eardley from bbc verify is going to put to the test. earlier in the campaign we looked at rishi sunak�*s dubious claim labour would put tax up £2,000. now, there's a claim from labour that risks misleading people too. this is it — that mortgages would go up £11,800 under the conservatives. mentioned on the airwaves by senior labour figures, posted here by rachel reeves and keir starmer today. to understand why this is potentially misleading, let's look at how labour reached the figure. they've gone through the conservatives' manifesto and done their own sums. the conservatives say they will raise £12 billion from a welfare crackdown — there are big questions about that figure. but labour assume they'll raise nothing. labour also reckon plans for national service would cost a lot more than the tory manifesto says — not £2.5 billion but £5.2 billion. and putting those and other assumptions together, labour have calculated there would be a £71 billion spending gap. labour have then assumed the conservatives would borrow all of that money, and then assumed that extra debt would push interest rates up as a result. so a number of questionable assumptions so far. bear with me, there's more. labour have then taken the average house price, assumed an 85% loan to value — even though that's higher than most mortgages — and then come up with this figure overfive years — £4,800. it's not an annual figure, it's over a whole parliament, but it involves a lot of assumptions, some of them dubious, and for that reason, it risks misleading people. a bbc documentary has uncovered shocking claims that the greek coastguard has caused the deaths of dozens of migrants in the mediterranean over a three—year period, including nine people who were deliberately thrown into the water. more than a0 people are alleged to have died as a result of being forced out of greek territorial waters or taken back out to sea after reaching greek islands. with more, here's paul adams. for more than ten years, migrants looking for a better life have used a number of routes to reach europe. some travel from north africa to italy. 0thers cross from turkey to the nearby greek islands. for many, greece is seen as the best way into europe. last year, just over 41,000 people arrived using that route. human rights groups say thousands of people seeking asylum have been forced back illegally from greece to turkey, denied the right to seek asylum, something enshrined in international and eu law. the documentary looks into the role of the greek coastguard in trying to stem the flow and it raises some serious questions. for years, the greek authorities have been accused of taking a sometimes uncompromising attitude towards asylum seekers attempting to reach the islands. the bbc has documented some of these episodes and heard stories of other practices which appear to breach international law. video recorded last year showed one such episode. 0n the island of lesbos, a group of migrants, including women and children, are taken back to the shore and escorted by masked men to a waiting coastguard ship. the boat heads out to sea, out of greek waters. the migrants are put into a tiny liferaft and set adrift, found later by the turkish authorities. greece says it is investigating. it doesn't seem like it's forceful. the footage is shown to the former head of the coastguard special operations. he says he sees nothing wrong with the video. but during a break, he takes a different line. the documentary contains other shocking allegations. ibrahim says he was shot at after coming ashore on the island of samos, taken back out to sea with two companions and thrown overboard. the two others drowned. the greek coastguard says that it strongly rejects all accusations of illegal activities and works tirelessly and with the utmost professionalism and a strong sense of responsibility and respect for human life and fundamental rights, adding that they were in full compliance with the country's international obligations. for nine years, greece has been on the front line of an issue that resonates right across europe. stopping the boats remains as politically charged as it was when the refugee and migrant crisis erupted almost a decade ago. paul adams, bbc news. and you can watch dead calm: killing in the med? on the bbc iplayer now. israel's prime minister, benjamin netanyahu, has disbanded his war cabinet, just over a week after the former general benny gantz, who was a centrist, quit. decisions about the war with hamas in gaza will now be made with a pre—existing security cabinet and the larger full cabinet. let's go tojerusalem and to our correspondent lucy williamson. why has the prime minister done this, and will it have any impact on the war? well, this was widely expected after benny gantz left the war cabinet and it's true that benjamin netanyahu has lost a bit of political cover with this. i think it's important to remember that, with this. i think it's important to rememberthat, in with this. i think it's important to remember that, in some ways, his biggest political constraint always came from outside that war cabinet. it came from the two far right leaders of the far right parties in his coalition, and they have threatened to withdraw their parties and bring down his government if he makes decisions over gaza they don't like, primarily, picking a deal with hamas to end the war, and we saw yesterday a sensitive some of those decisions can be, when the israeli army said it was going to enact a daily tactical truth along one stretch of road to try and get more aid in. they, the impression we have from the ground in gaza as it hasn't made much difference to the aid being delivered along that short stretch of fruit. but the demographer right leaders were furious, which left benjamin netanyahu in a tricky position, under pressure within his own government over decisions like this but, without real change on the ground in gaza, the international pressure he is under isn't going away. the actor sir ian mckellen has been taken to hospital after falling off a stage in london's west end. the 85—year—old had been taking part in a fight scene in a performance of player kings, a shakespeare adaptation, which was then abandoned. the play sees sir ian take on the lead role of falstaff for the first time in his career. at the euros in germany, an england fans group is asking for an urgent review of travel arrangements in gelsenkirchen after england supporters were left stranded for hours after the match against serbia last night. today, the england team were back at theirtraining camp, afterjude bellingham's goal put them top of their group. meanwhile, scotland have been training ahead of their match against switzerland on wednesday. andy swiss reports. he isjust 20, but he is england's talisman. jude bellingham is already the fans�* favourite here in germany, and you can see why. commentator: saka does get it across, and it's - headed in by bellingham! his dazzling display brought a winning start and his very own tribute song. crowd sings hey jude. "heyjude," they chanted, to his obvious delight. i like the beatles, i listen to the beatles a lot. my style of music is a bit old, so that's right up my street. but, yeah, i really enjoy playing in front of the england fans, you know, obviously they give me a lot of appreciation, a lot of love, and i try and give that back with my performances and my energy on the pitch. this morning, those who didn't play yesterday were training at england's base in blankenhain, while those who did recovered from an often nervy experience. serbia made them sweat. 0h, great save, jordan pickford! and the travelling fans know they will need to improve. well, for england supporters here it was a tricky night off the pitch, too. many of them struggled to leave the stadium after the game because of transport problems. they'll be hoping their next match against denmark on thursday is an altogether more comfortable experience. fans fa ns were fans were left stranded because they were not enough trains and some ended up walking miles through the night. ended up walking miles through the niuht. ., , , ended up walking miles through the niuht. ., ,, ~ ended up walking miles through the niuht. . ,, ~ ., night. fans still kill some kicking three hours _ night. fans still kill some kicking three hours after— night. fans still kill some kicking three hours after the _ night. fans still kill some kicking three hours after the game - night. fans still kill some kicking three hours after the game has l three hours after the game has finished at 2am is ridiculous and unacceptable, and that's purely down to the transport infrastructure that was put in place. to the transport infrastructure that was put in place-— to the transport infrastructure that was put in place. uefa has begun an investigation _ was put in place. uefa has begun an investigation to _ was put in place. uefa has begun an investigation to a _ was put in place. uefa has begun an investigation to a claim _ was put in place. uefa has begun an investigation to a claim england - investigation to a claim england players were subjected to a racist chant during last light a match. scotland, meanwhile, are preparing to face switzerland and they're hoping to forget this. after that 5—1 thumping by germany, can they rediscover their feel—good factor? certainly for scotland supporters, you know, we feel that _ disappointment as well. but, you know, i think they can see it's a real genuine side here, - with lads that want to give their all for their country, i and that's what they will continue to do. i 0ne game gone, then, but for scotland and england, two very different results as their euros hopes now face a pivotal week. andy swiss, bbc news, gelsenkirchen. elsewhere at the euros, slovakia caused a major upset, as they beat group favourites belgium 1—0. the team ranked third in the world had two goals disallowed and were ultimately beaten by a team ranked 48th in the world. meanwhile, romania stunned ukraine 3—0, with only their second ever win at the euros, their first coming 24 years ago. and, in the last hour, france took on austria — was there to be another upset? patrick gearey was watching. the bigger the star, the bigger the close—up. the focus is always on kylian mbappe. as a global icon, the france captain's every move is watched. it's another thing trying to keep up with him. austria escaped but they have the capacity to do more than survive. the austrians have been on good form and here for christoph baumgartner, a great chance. commentator: and maignan did his job superbly. _ a sliding doors moment because in a blink, the match moved on. mbappe moved on, mesmerisingly. commentator: it's an own goal. france have taken the lead. typical, magical. a conjuring trick that made poor max wober the stooge. it is easy to take mbappe for granted, so when he got away here, everyone knew what would happen next. until somehow it didn't. commentator: and misses. goodness me! so for didier deschamps, this was not yet comfortable and for mbappe, less so. his nose felt the force of trying to score a second. eventually he went off. that would be their last problem though. les bleus are on their way. this was not spectacular but for this much fancied france, it is a start. patrick gearey, bbc news. time for a look at the weather.

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