Transcripts For BBCNEWS World 20240701

federal reserve believe interest rates are at or near their peak, even going as so far to signal of three possible because next year as us inflation continues to receive from its ao—year high. during his frescoes, jerome powell suggested as much. we his frescoes, jerome powell suggested as much.- suggested as much. we are seeinu suggested as much. we are seeing strong _ suggested as much. we are seeing strong growth - suggested as much. we are seeing strong growth that l seeing strong growth that appears to be moderated, a labour— appears to be moderated, a labour market that is coming back— labour market that is coming back in— labour market that is coming back in the balance by so many measures— back in the balance by so many measures and we are seeing inflationary progress. this is what — inflationary progress. this is what we _ inflationary progress. this is what we have been wanting to see _ what we have been wanting to see. y . ., what we have been wanting to see. .., ., what we have been wanting to see. ., , see. the official forecast size with the decision _ see. the official forecast size with the decision to - see. the official forecast size with the decision to leave - with the decision to leave rates on hold, potentially marking the end of a rate cycle that has included 11 increases to ease rising prices. government data showed it had dropped from the peak of 9.1% in mid—2022 tojust dropped from the peak of 9.1% in mid—2022 to just 3.1% in november. that is above the target of 2%. jerome powell cautions the committee had not ruled out raising ways again in the future. for wall street, all three major markets finish higher. the dowjones industrial average on more than 500 points to a record close. this is the third time in a row after all the central bank decided against another rate hike. for investors, satisfied they are done, the only question on their minds is when will they start cutting them? let's turn our attention to the uk now. because after raising the cost of borrowing to its highest in 15 years, the bank of england has been sticking to the message that it will stay there for the foreseeable future. the rate of price rises or inflation is still more than double the bank's 2% target. but financial markets are increasingly betting the bank will have to start cutting the cost of borrowing early next year as the economy weakens. that view was boosted on wednesday after growth figures came in worse than expected. here's our economics correspondent andy verity. it was one of the wettest october is on record, as a storm battered the coast flies involved towns in yorkshire, one of the biggest reasons why the economy shrank faster than most thought it would. as a shoppers cow would indoors, and across the economy, a little less was spent. in october, the value of goods and services produced, gross domestic product, shrank by 0.3%, a smaller drop in some in the pandemic. the monthly figures came with a health warning, they wobble around. over three months, there was no growth at all. that matches the series of companies like this used car dealer. business boom to the pandemic of a shortage of microchips that to a shortage of new cars and that means fewer new cars now, keeping prices high. most buy on credit which cost £100 a month authors interest started rising. in 2005, we have £5 million and last year we had a £41 million turnover that we have green of the business considerably. that growth has slowed down over the last couple of years and that is purely because of the uncertainty of the market at the moment.— the moment. some of the slowdown _ the moment. some of the slowdown is _ the moment. some of the slowdown is to _ the moment. some of the slowdown is to deliver - the moment. some of the slowdown is to deliver a i the moment. some of the - slowdown is to deliver a policy to fight inflation. the slowdown is to deliver a policy to fight inflation.— to fight inflation. the top -riori to fight inflation. the top priority this _ to fight inflation. the top priority this year - to fight inflation. the top priority this year has - to fight inflation. the top | priority this year has been to fight inflation. the top . priority this year has been to halve inflation and as a result of that we had to make difficult decisions on the bank of england has had to drive down inflation by tight monetary policy, high interest rates, and that inevitably has an impact on growth.- an impact on growth. many households _ an impact on growth. many households are _ an impact on growth. many households are not - an impact on growth. many households are notjust - an impact on growth. many - households are notjust wasting high interest rates, they are paying more tax on their wages, leaving them less to spend on everything else. fix, leaving them less to spend on everything else.— everything else. a set of growing. _ everything else. a set of growing. the _ everything else. a set of growing, the homily - everything else. a set of growing, the homily is i growing, the homily is shrinking and that has a real world impact because it means less money in the pockets of ordinary families, less investment opportunities for business. ., ., ., . business. for now, the economic headwinds _ business. for now, the economic headwinds remain _ business. for now, the economic headwinds remain fierce, - business. for now, the economic headwinds remain fierce, with i headwinds remain fierce, with households buffeted by higher bills, taxes and 14 rises of interest rates in the the city now expect the bank of england to play screws before christmas with another one. wei li is global chief investment strategist at the world's largest asset manager blackrock. lovely to have you with us. let's start with the us, the federal reserve did we expected, they kept rates in the world's biggest economy on hold but it was interesting to hear whatjerome powell had to say. hear what jerome powell had to sa . ., ., hear what jerome powell had to sa. ., ., , say. your thoughts? absolutely. a fascinating _ say. your thoughts? absolutely. a fascinating time _ say. your thoughts? absolutely. a fascinating time in _ say. your thoughts? absolutely. a fascinating time in the - a fascinating time in the markets, the federal reserve used to give forward gardens and guide the markets and for now they are taking guidance from the market. the surprise yesterday was not so much about the hold or most likely already at the rays, we knew that already, but it was markets going into the meeting were already pricing in aggressive cuts. 120 basis points for 2024. the fed essentially gave them permission to do that yesterday. essentially started talking about rate cuts and this contrast was this beach thatjerome powell made when he said he was sure to conclude with confidence and that the policy is efficiently restricted or to speculate when policy would ease. the flip—flop narrative is really feeding to strong market volatility. it is in characterising the whole of 2023. 4' characterising the whole of 2023. ~ , characterising the whole of 2023. 4' , ., 2023. the thinking is that the race will be _ 2023. the thinking is that the race will be coming _ 2023. the thinking is that the race will be coming down - 2023. the thinking is that the race will be coming down in i 2023. the thinking is that the | race will be coming down in the us. when you think they will start cutting rates and will the uk and europe be following suit? ,':,': the uk and europe be following suit? iii: ., the uk and europe be following suit? ,':,': ., ., ~ suit? 433 to give the market ricin: suit? 433 to give the market pricing that _ suit? 433 to give the market pricing that already - suit? 433 to give the market pricing that already is - suit? 433 to give the market pricing that already is very i pricing that already is very aggressive, this is big, especially given the uncertainty, especially given inflationary pressure in parts of the economy. in the us, course service housing is still a 5% on a annual basis. this is a 5% on a annual basis. this is a big bets but certainly open the door yesterday to cutting rates and we think the rates cut will start. still the second half of next year be potentially may be potentially maybe even earlier than that after yesterday's comment. looking ahead, from now until the end, it is hard to see catalysts on the market momentum and the barfor the central bank not to take the lead from the fed is high. especially given both economy, european and uk, are stagnating and inflation has been falling as well. we certainly expect them to take the lead. the bottom line in terms of investing, it is important to stay with investors and right now we're seeing a rally into the year and, let's set up the new year on a bit more selective footing when it comes to evaluation, which is why we continue to advocate on a selective basis over 6—12 months. selective basis over 6-12 months-— selective basis over 6-12 months. ~ ., , , ., months. we need to stay smart, that is what _ months. we need to stay smart, that is what you _ months. we need to stay smart, that is what you are _ months. we need to stay smart, that is what you are saying. - that is what you are saying. thank you. the markets had a real rider wall street. you can see the other represent. japan was up significantly yesterday. if we look at wall street, people call this time of year the centre rally time and we are certainly seeing three days in a row, the market is hitting year highs. craig erlam is senior market analyst at the foreign exchange trading company oanda. good to see you. what is your take on all of this? just hearing about the market reaction. your thoughts? the market reaction _ reaction. your thoughts? the market reaction was reaction. your thoughts? t'ta: market reaction was strong which is not surprising. markets were priced aggressively going into the fed meeting, no—one expected the fed to meet market expectations and to be honest, going into it, my personal view was they may offer a couple of rate cuts next year my potentially even maintain just one rates cut next year. just australia considering the pivots while not actually moving at this point in time, to suggest the markets with a massive concession, as something that investors understandably got very excited about and then pushed the boat out further to five rate cuts now been priced into the market. this is a massive change from a fed only three months ago said the next level be a rate hike, probably this year, so clearly a lot has changed in this time and it has. the data softens, wage growth has slowed, inflation overall has slowed, much more sustainable levels. still a work to do, particular the service aside but i think you can see progress in the last three months has been substantial and substantial enough for the fed to make quite a drastic move in terms of the expectations. this quite a drastic move in terms of the expectations.- of the expectations. this is jerome powell _ of the expectations. this is jerome powell trying - of the expectations. this is jerome powell trying to - of the expectations. this is - jerome powell trying to manage a soft landing in 2024. if we look ahead to the bank of england and european central bank, do you think andrew bailey are envious of the position in the us, where it is a little bit clearer, simpler, maybe? t a little bit clearer, simpler, ma be? ., , ., maybe? i would say they are envious to — maybe? i would say they are envious to an _ maybe? i would say they are envious to an extent - maybe? i would say they are envious to an extent in - maybe? i would say they are envious to an extent in thatl envious to an extent in that christine lingard, they have their own issues and probably already in recession, so they are probably also going to have to cut rates a few times next year. notjust because year. not just because inflation year. notjust because inflation is falling but also to support the economy. markets are pricing in five or six because next year from the european central bank and interesting to see how much the ecb gives later on, whether they will go full fed and .2 3— four ray because next year and a itself with the markets than has been for a next time. the bank of england is in a different situation, still seeing higher levels of inflation here in the uk, markets positioning for a summer start to rate cuts and only a few next year, so slightly behind the curve. the difference today for the bank of england unlike the federal reserve yesterday, we will get any forecast today, comes in november and february, so we will get any forecast wasn't a press conference and was not expecting any big announcements from the bank of england today. we will have to wait a couple of months. i will not be surprised with the ecb if we see a repeat of the fed yesterday. see a repeat of the fed yesterday-— see a repeat of the fed yesterday. see a repeat of the fed esterda . ., ., yesterday. have a good day. good to see _ yesterday. have a good day. good to see you. _ to the war in ukraine now, because european union leaders begin a two day summit today to discuss a 50 billion euro aid package for kyiv over the next four years as well as the start of talks on the country's eu membership. all 27 leaders are in favour except hungary's viktor orban, who has been threatening to veto it. but on wednesday, the eu unblocked up to 11 billion euros of funding for hungary, which had been frozen over concerns about the rule of law there, leading critics to say it had �*given in to blackmail�*. european commission president ursula von der leyen said this week it's vital for europe to keep backing ukraine. as the war drags on, we must approve what it means to support ukraine for as long as it takes. ukraine is not only fighting against the invader but for its. joining a family will be ukraine's ultimate victory. forthis, will be ukraine's ultimate victory. for this, we have a decisive role to play. john e herbst is former us ambassador to ukraine and now senior director of the atlantic council's eurasia center. good to have you with us. has a summer treat? good to have you with us. has a summertreat? do good to have you with us. has a summer treat? do you think a vote in favourfrom hungary summer treat? do you think a vote in favour from hungary is now in the bag? tt vote in favour from hungary is now in the bag?— now in the bag? it is in the ban but now in the bag? it is in the bag but i — now in the bag? it is in the bag but i expected - now in the bag? it is in the bag but i expected to - now in the bag? it is in the i bag but i expected to happen. by bag but i expected to happen. by and large, hungary, and in helpful activate the eu and nato, grails and growls but when the organisation, be it nato or the eu, moved decisively in the right direction, hungary decides it is better to get out of the way. it is obviously here. from victor or— way. it is obviously here. from victor or mana's _ way. it is obviously here. from victor or mana's point - way. it is obviously here. from victor or mana's point of- way. it is obviously here. from victor or mana's point of view, | victor or mana's point of view, from what they gain of being in the eu, that is very important fundamentally? they get for their economy? they don't want to risk it. , ., ., , to risk it. there is no doubt hungary — to risk it. there is no doubt hungary is _ to risk it. there is no doubt hungary is benefiting - to risk it. there is no doubt. hungary is benefiting greatly from being in the year. without it he would splutter substantially and he understands that but his abridgement and he might say that maybe he has been successful in threatening action on ukraine to get the two overlook that it is not politically democratic tendencies at home. —— a brickman. tendencies at home. -- a brickman— tendencies at home. -- a brickman. �*, ., ~ ., , brickman. let's talk about this meetin: brickman. let's talk about this meeting and — brickman. let's talk about this meeting and how _ brickman. let's talk about this meeting and how important i brickman. let's talk about this meeting and how important it| meeting and how important it is. the eu has to show unity and its backing of ukraine after a very tough year with the offensive starting injune seemingly not delivering and also vladimir zelensky in washington did not get the funding he wanted from the us either this week?— either this week? look, this aid is essential, _ either this week? look, this aid is essential, especially l either this week? look, this | aid is essential, especially in light of the political games under way in washington. we are at the most dangerous moment in moscow's war on ukraine. as long as they are provided the ad, ukraine will ultimately win. the fact that the aid is in doubt in washington is very dangerous. the eu stepping up is also a reminder to washington it has to play the same role. washington it has to play the same role-— washington it has to play the same role. ~ ., _, ., same role. will the outcome of these two-day _ same role. will the outcome of these two-day meetings i same role. will the outcome of these two-day meetings have l same role. will the outcome of. these two-day meetings have an these two—day meetings have an impact? tt these two-day meetings have an im act? . , . , impact? it has indirectly. there has _ impact? it has indirectly. there has been - impact? it has indirectly. there has been a - impact? it has indirectly. there has been a false i impact? it has indirectly. i there has been a false urban agent that eu and europe is not done its part in supporting ukraine and we note from data that in fact europe has sent more aid to ukraine than the united states so this decision will once again bring home to the american public that the eu is more than pulling its shape so that is a positive. {lin is more than pulling its shape so that is a positive.— so that is a positive. on cue for your— so that is a positive. on cue for your time. _ so that is a positive. on cue for your time. interesting i so that is a positive. on cue| for your time. interesting to get your perspective on this. my get your perspective on this. my pleasure. thank you. let's get some of the day's other news now. energy suppliers in the uk will have to help customers struggling with bills after new rules come into effect today. the regulator ofgem now requires companies to contact vulnerable customers if they miss two monthly or one quarterly payment and check to see if they are having financial problems. they must help by offering affordable payment plans or repayment holidays if appropriate. etsy, the online marketplace for home—made goods, is cutting about 225jobs, or 11% of its workforce. chief executivejosh silverman has told staff the cuts are needed as sales have been essentially flat for two years. etsy�*s shares are trading at well under a third of their peak during the covid pandemic. former bp boss bernard looney will forfeit up to £32.4 million pounds after the oil giant found he committed "serious misconduct" in failing to disclose relationships with colleagues. ——£32.4 million after the oil giant found he committed bp says mr looney is to be dismissed without notice and will not receive further salary or benefits. he resigned in september after admitting not being fully transparent about his past personal relationships. tesla is recalling more than two million cars after the us regulatorfound problems with its driver assistance system, autopilot. it follows a two—year investigation into crashes which occurred when the tech was in use. the company says it will send a software update over the air to fix the issue coming up, which of the world's top firms are most ready for the future? we'll have the details injust a moment. around the world and across the uk, this is bbc news. bbc news, bringing you different stories from across the uk. on the 10th of december 1993, hundreds of miners took part in this march to mark the end of littleton colliery. 30 years on, some still feel the closure was a mistake. i still firmly believe it was purely a political motive by the then government because the industry, they didn't like it. it was a huge employer in the staffordshire village of huntington. nearly 2000 miners worked there at its height. you can see where all the gold had been extracted... for some it was more than just a job, it was a second home. when you go down the pit, you feel comfortable. quite a lot of people would think, it is hard to believe it, i actually enjoyed it. lifelong friendships were made down the pit. ron and may still go for a drink every friday with other ex— miners. for more stories from across the uk, head to the bbc news website. you're live with bbc news. let's carry on with the business coverage. we all know the pandemic sparked a revolution in working from home. many people are now returning to the office full time or for at least part of the week. but for those still working remotely, avoiding the daily commute, but have found home working isolating or less productive. there is a new alternative. it's called working near home as dougal shaw explains. does a place like this represent the future of office work? this is a trendy co—working space — the kind made popular by wework — but it's small scale and not in the city centre, it's in the suburbs where commuters live, in this case twickenham in southwest london. members pay to have a hot desk, fixed desk or a small office here. so work near home is a new category where we you don't have to commute in every day, you can actually go down to your local high street and have a really productive workday. we have a whole ground floor that is totally open and public. we have bakery sales, ceramics classes... a lot of the people i met here were office workers who were allowed to work from home but were either finding that lonely or too distracting. we live in quite a small apartment and i'm sharing the working space with my husband because he is also working hybrid so sometimes that could be a little bit fraught. it lets me focus without being interrupted by the washing machine going or doing various tasks in the house and also my husband. the number of these local community co—working hubs is on the rise, many are backed by local government funding. they're seen as a way to regenerate high streets. this one in east dulwich southeast london has a restaurant and yoga and wellness classes open to the public. the entrepreneur behind it has another one in sutton just outside london and is planning further expansion. the fact that this co—working space isn't in the city centre, how does that affect you? we were to interested in delivering a local co—working space to allow people to not have to commute into city centres and spend time amongst their neighbours and reinvest their money within their local economies. some employers are subsidising their workers to come to places like these because they think they will be more productive than at home. but many employers also now simply want their workers back in the main office, so the commuter lifestyle might not be overjust yet. finally, which global companies are best prepared for the future? it's a question asked every year by the imd business school in switzerland, which publishes an annual future readiness ranking. so lets reveal their findings for 2024 — microsoft tops the tech sector, pfizer leads its rivals in big pharma and in the world of fashion imd says nike is most ready for the challenges ahead. let's find out why. let's go to lausanne switzerland and speak to professor howard yu, who heads up imd�*s center for future readiness. good to have you on the programme. let's talk about your conclusions. microsoft to start. we were not surprised to hear this given its first mover advantage on al.— hear this given its first mover advantage on al. right, but the bi aer advantage on al. right, but the bigger story _ advantage on al. right, but the bigger story out _ advantage on al. right, but the bigger story out here _ advantage on al. right, but the bigger story out here is - advantage on al. right, but the bigger story out here is how i bigger story out here is how important is to democratise generated ai and microsoft did an incrediblejob. the second is that simplification of all the software solutions. what makes microsoft distinctly unique is the ability to bring in all kind of software solutions under one roof so that client and user do not need to worry about many apps. when you rank them at the top, in terms of readiness, you just outlined some of the key reasons why, but what are you measuring in particular? do you look, for example, at their plan for sustainability, for that kind of thing as well? absolutely. because on sustainability, esg or diversity, there are really important areas to ensure a long—term prospect. if you're thinking about a software company orfashion thinking about a software company or fashion company, you have to dig outside the box so these are long—term investments, alongside with r&d intensity, but most importantly we are also looking at near term financial results as well. it is a balanced assessment. pfizer, big pharma, they have been warning about the year ahead but you're saying it is ready? ahead but you're saying it is read ? ~ , ahead but you're saying it is ready? absolutely. from balanced _ ready? absolutely. from balanced assessment, i ready? absolutely. from i balanced assessment, you ready? absolutely. from - balanced assessment, you have got to have a more holistic approach. near—term financial pressure is not unique to any major company but if you combine with looking at the pipelines, the r&d intensity and new product innovation particularly around disease prevention and diagnostic and personalised treatment, all in all we see pfizer emerge as a very strong candidate going forward, alongside with astrazeneca.— forward, alongside with astrazeneca. �* , , , astrazeneca. and very briefly, nike, why _ astrazeneca. and very briefly, nike, why is — astrazeneca. and very briefly, nike. why is a _ astrazeneca. and very briefly, nike, why is a top _ astrazeneca. and very briefly, nike, why is a top of - astrazeneca. and very briefly, nike, why is a top of the i nike, why is a top of the retail liz?— retail liz? what we find interesting _ retail liz? what we find interesting in _ retail liz? what we find interesting in the i retail liz? what we find l interesting in the fashion industry, but nikkei listings itself is merchandised, socialism and everything together and online growing as well. —— nike. it is the king of oppression. well. -- nike. it is the king of oppression.— of oppression. thank you, professor- _ of oppression. thank you, professor. good _ of oppression. thank you, professor. good to - of oppression. thank you, professor. good to get i of oppression. thank you, i professor. good to get your take. see you soon. hello there. given all the rain that we've had over the past few weeks, it's still pretty wet out there. but the next few days at least will turn drier and also the temperatures will be rising. now, this area of low pressure brought cloud and some rain and drizzle to eastern parts of england. that's moving away. the next weather system is coming in from the atlantic. but in between the two, well, we did have some sunshine earlier on, particularly in northern ireland and here in scotland. but where we have the clearer skies in the first part of the night, there's the risk that temperatures could fall just below freezing in places. but that window of clearer skies will close as the night goes on because all that cloud will come in from the atlantic. it's going to bring some rain and briefly some snow over the scottish mountains, perhaps the northern pennines, but it should turn back to rain later on in the night as temperatures start to rise. so these are the numbers by first thing thursday morning. and by this time, the rain will have cleared away from northern ireland and just about the whole of scotland. but we will see some further patchy, mostly light rain and drizzle affecting england and wales, and that cloudy, damp weather could continue across the southeast well into the afternoon, but otherwise, we'll get some sunshine following on behind, a few showers for northern ireland and scotland, mostly in the north of scotland, where it's still quite blustery. but if anything, temperatures are going to be a degree or two higher than what we had today. as one weather system moves away, we look to see another one coming in from the atlantic as we move into friday. this is going to be focused more to the northwest of the uk. we'll see more cloud coming in to northern ireland and also in scotland, showers in the north of the country being replaced by some rain and drizzle. elsewhere, it should be dry and a lot more sunshine more widely across england and wales, where the winds will be lighter. still, temperatures 7 or 8 degrees across eastern parts of england, but further west, it is much, much milder. and this milder atlantic air on some brisk winds will come rushing in across the whole of the country in time for the start of the weekend. we've got colder air to the north of that weather front, which may move southwards on sunday to bring some patchy rain. but on saturday, it's staying to the north of us, just bringing the chance of some rain in the north of scotland. again, it looks like it's going to be windy here and across northern ireland. the winds are lighter as you head further south, but there won't be as much sunshine for england and wales on saturday. but it is mild air and those temperatures will be widely 12 or 13 celsius. good morning. welcome to breakfast with charlie stayt and naga munchetty. our headlines today... ambulance bosses say patients are being put at risk by dangerous delays, as winter pressures are already beginning to affect the nhs. cctv footage is released of the last known movements of gaynor lord, the mother of three who's been missing since friday. a big day for borrowers and savers. the bank of england announces its latest decision on interest rates later today. after two years of rises, is change on the way? newcastle's european dream ends in heartbreak, as they're beaten at home by ac milan, finishing bottom of their group, which ends their hopes of european football in the new year. good morning. a cloudy start across england and wales with patchy light rain and drizzle, pushing south and east. it will brighten up from the west later. a brighter day in scotland and northern ireland. windy in the north and west. all the detail throughout the programme this morning. big ben chimes. 100 years since the "bongs" of big ben were first broadcast live to the nation. we'll take you inside the bell tower were preparations for new year's eve are well underway it's thursday the 14th of december. ambulance service staff and leaders say winter pressures are already beginning to affect the nhs, and patients are being put at risk by dangerous delays. crews are enduring long waits outside accident and emergency

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