Week Ahead – Can CPI, Retail Sales, and Bank Earnings Derail Fed Rate Hike Odds?

The US labor market is softening, but still remains tight and that should keep the door open for policymakers to raise rates again at the May 3rd policy meeting. The focus now shifts to whether disinflation trends can get back on track.  The March inflation report is expected to show a slower monthly pace of 0.2%, down from 0.4%, while headline inflation reading is expected at 5.2% year on year, down from February’s 6.0%.  The March Retail Sales report is also expected to show another soft month of spending.

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