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Week Ahead – US Retail Sales and Earnings, Major Chinese Data, and UK Inflation and Employment Readings

This week Wall Street will learn how quickly the US consumer is weakening and if the manufacturing part of the economy is close to entering recovery mode. The US retail sales report for September is expected to show monthly sales increased 0.3%, down from the 0.6% in the previous month. Sales excluding cars and gasoline are expected to rise 0.1%, a tick lower than the August reading.  The Empire Manufacturing survey is expected to show the September surprise 1.9 expansion was not the beginning of a new trend as the headline reading falls to -5.0. ....

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Week Ahead – Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Will be Must-See TV

The main event for next week will be the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium.  Fed Chair Powell’s speech will reiterate that more rate hikes might be needed and that rates should stay higher for longer.  With the recent surge with real yields, Fed Chair Powell can acknowledge that policy is restrictive and that future rate cuts could eventually be warranted as long as inflation has been defeated. ....

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