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Capital Perspectives: Fundamental vs. technical analysis

Capital Perspectives: Fundamental vs. technical analysis
By: Chas Craig
Guest Columnist
May 18, 2021
Chas Craig
A friend recently asked why I don’t incorporate much technical analysis (i.e. chart reading) into my investment process. For one, in theory, a weaker form of market efficiency is required for technical analysis to add value than fundamental analysis, assuming both are carried out with a similar level of competence. However, where possible, we try to be more practical than theoretical in this column. The paragraphs that follow summarize the comments I shared with my friend.
I think the concept of “Mr. Market” from Benjamin Graham is the best mental framework with which to approach the market. The idea is that Mr. Market is a highly intelligent person, whose opinion should be respected, but he tragically suffers from bipolar disorder. Mr. Market shows up at your office every day offering to buy or sell securities with you. You, h ....

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Capital Perspectives: Countering ambiguity bias

Capital Perspectives: Countering ambiguity bias
By: Chas Craig
Guest Columnist
April 20, 2021
Chas Craig
– Ralph Waldo Emerson
We regularly interweave behavioral finance into this capital markets-focused column because overcoming or succumbing to our psychological tendencies can have as much to do with investment success, or the lack thereof, as does competent fundamental analysis. Specifically, excessive self-regard, over-optimism and availability misweighing were highlighted through the lens of Charlie Munger’s
The Psychology of Human Misjudgment. Munger is vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and longtime business partner of Warren Buffett. Later work discussed how anchoring, overconfidence, endowment effects and loss aversion can be harmful to investors’ financial health. ....

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Capital Perspectives: Inflation risk revisited

Capital Perspectives: Inflation risk revisited
By: Chas Craig
Guest Columnist
April 6, 2021
Chas Craig
Last June I wrote a column entitled “Inflation Risk” for
The Journal Record. I stated that “common sense dictates that government deficits and the resulting debt can’t be monetized via Fed purchases of Treasury obligations in increasing amounts without causing an inflationary impulse at some point.” The point was not so much that I had a high level of conviction that inflation would spike, but that the market seemed very certain that it wouldn’t. The difference between 30-year nominal and inflation protected Treasury bonds (the breakeven rate), a rough estimate of the market’s expectation for average inflation over the period, registered at roughly 1.5% at the time, a level well below the Fed’s goal of averaging 2%. ....

Bloomberg Barclays , Chas Craig , Inflation Linked Bond Index , Bond Index , Treasury Inflation Protected Securities , Meliora Capital , ப்ளூம்பெர்க் பார்க்லேஸ் , சேஸ் கிரேக் , வீக்கம் இணைக்கப்பட்டுள்ளது பத்திரம் குறியீட்டு , பத்திரம் குறியீட்டு , கருவூலம் வீக்கம் ப்ரொடெக்டெட் பத்திரங்கள் ,

Capital Perspectives: Loss aversion revisited

Capital Perspectives: Loss aversion revisited
By: Chas Craig
Guest Columnist
February 23, 2021
Chas Craig
“More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could ‘at least come out even’ than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous.”
– Philip A. Fisher, “Common Stock and Uncommon Profits” (1958)
Longtime readers know that we regularly interweave behavioral finance observations into this capital markets-focused column because overcoming or succumbing to our psychological tendencies can have as much to do with investment success, or the lack thereof, as does competent fundamental analysis. We have also written explicitly on several psychological t ....

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Capital Perspectives: Gauging investor enthusiasm

Capital Perspectives: Gauging investor enthusiasm
By: Chas Craig
Guest Columnist
December 15, 2020
Chas Craig
“While enthusiasm may be necessary for great accomplishments elsewhere, on Wall Street it almost invariably leads to disaster.”
– Benjamin Graham
Warren Buffett counseled in his 2005 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that “Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” The dichotomy between the ease of understanding this concept and the difficulty of practicing it is unmatched. The reason, investors are all too human. As we have outlined several times in the past when discussing behavioral finance, the same instincts that protect us from physical harm and make us more tolerable to our fellow man seem to run counter to our financia ....

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