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Capital Perspectives: Bubble prerequisites

There is a lot of talk of bubbles in markets today. Depending on the purveyor, bubble worries range from cryptocurrencies to the stocks of leading American ....

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Capital Perspectives: Fundamental vs. technical analysis

Capital Perspectives: Fundamental vs. technical analysis
By: Chas Craig
Guest Columnist
May 18, 2021
Chas Craig
A friend recently asked why I don’t incorporate much technical analysis (i.e. chart reading) into my investment process. For one, in theory, a weaker form of market efficiency is required for technical analysis to add value than fundamental analysis, assuming both are carried out with a similar level of competence. However, where possible, we try to be more practical than theoretical in this column. The paragraphs that follow summarize the comments I shared with my friend.
I think the concept of “Mr. Market” from Benjamin Graham is the best mental framework with which to approach the market. The idea is that Mr. Market is a highly intelligent person, whose opinion should be respected, but he tragically suffers from bipolar disorder. Mr. Market shows up at your office every day offering to buy or sell securities with you. You, h ....

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Capital Perspectives: Investors vote with their shares

Capital Perspectives: Investors vote with their shares
By: J.P. Szafranski
Guest Columnist
May 4, 2021
J.P. Szafranski
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”
So said legendary investor Benjamin Graham. We stock market investors have the right to vote each trading day through buying, selling, or “HODLing” freely tradeable shares from companies of every size and industry.
While many rational strategies and motivations exist for taking action, like portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss selling, dollar-cost-averaging, etc., a vote on the prospect of a stock’s potential future price compared to its current price should lie at the root of each investment decision. The mosaic of differing investor opinions driving votes in each direction makes a market. The intangible construct of investor sentiment plays a meaningful role in the voting machine. ....

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Capital Perspectives: Bitcoin as anti-theft technology

Capital Perspectives: Bitcoin as anti-theft technology
By: J.P. Szafranski
Guest Columnist
March 9, 2021
J.P. Szafranski
Inflation is “a thief in the night.” So said William McChesney Martin, the longest-serving chairperson of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. The Fed faces a dual mandate from Congress to pursue price stability and full employment via monetary policy. This duality presents a tenuous situation, as the requisite monetary policy for price stability (i.e. low inflation) is typically detrimental to full employment.
In the wake of governmental response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, specifically the historically aggressive approach taken by the Fed to flood the financial system with newly created dollars, MicroStrategy Inc. founder and CEO Michael Saylor, his management team and the board of directors decided they had what might be described as a high-class problem. ....

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Capital Perspectives: Loss aversion revisited

Capital Perspectives: Loss aversion revisited
By: Chas Craig
Guest Columnist
February 23, 2021
Chas Craig
“More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could ‘at least come out even’ than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous.”
– Philip A. Fisher, “Common Stock and Uncommon Profits” (1958)
Longtime readers know that we regularly interweave behavioral finance observations into this capital markets-focused column because overcoming or succumbing to our psychological tendencies can have as much to do with investment success, or the lack thereof, as does competent fundamental analysis. We have also written explicitly on several psychological t ....

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