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Four decades after Mitterrand's victory, France's left is in trouble


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FORTY YEARS ago on May 10th, François Mitterrand made history, becoming France’s first Socialist president since before the second world war. At next year’s presidential election, the party the wily leader carried triumphantly to power in 1981 could make history again, but for rather a different reason. The Socialist Party runs the risk of failing to make it to the final run-off vote twice in a row.
A year ahead of any election, polls need to be treated with caution. French history is littered with early favourites Alain Juppé, Dominique Strauss-Kahn who never made it to the Elysée. A year before the presidential vote in 2017, the name Emmanuel Macron had not been tested in a single poll. An average of polls this year, which assume that Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, will be the Socialists’ candidate, suggests that the party would get just 8% in the first round. This would not be enough to get her through to the run ....

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Fears of a coup in France are exaggerated, but a far-right president is a real possibility


Fears of a coup in France are exaggerated, but a far-right president is a real possibility
Jean-Yves Camus
© Provided by The Guardian
Photograph: Rex/Shutterstock
A recent open letter to French president, Emmanuel Macron, signed by almost 50 retired army generals so far and more than 24,000 (predominantly former) servicemen, was occasion for many on the French left to raise the alarm, believing a coup d’état was either in the making or a future possibility. The top-brass signatories, led by generals Antoine Martinez and Christian Piquemal, say the country is on the verge of collapse because of immigration and crime, as well as Islamism and the support it gets from some on the left. They are angry at “cancel culture” and at any intellectual attempt to criticise the country’s colonial past. These generals warn that if the situation worsens, their fellow soldiers on active duty may choose to intervene and take control. ....

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Fears of a coup in France are exaggerated, but a far-right president is a real possibility


There’s nothing new in a sizeable segment of the military holding far-right beliefs and voting accordingly. In 2017, Le Pen took as much as 65% of the vote in areas close to barracks, compared to 33.9% nationwide. The older retired officers – like Martinez, 72, and Piquemal, 80 – are haunted by memories of the 1940 French surrender to the Nazis, the army’s defeats in Indochina and Algeria, and the 1968 leftist riots, which they see as the swan song of a more traditional France. The paratroopers, the foreign legion and the marine infantry units, from which many who signed the open letter hail, are especially known for their staunchly conservative ....

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