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Where Is The U.S. COVID-19 Pandemic Headed?


this post authored by Daniel J. Wilson
Consumer spending and business operations across the United States have been highly dependent on local conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Current economic forecasts therefore must incorporate projections for where the pandemic is headed. A new econometric model provides county-level and national forecasts of COVID-19 infections. Estimates from the model indicate that population immunity acquired from prior infections is the primary driver of recent declines in new cases. This factor should continue to exert strong downward pressure on new cases in the weeks ahead.
It has been a little over one year since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold of the U.S. economy, forcing business shutdowns, school closings, and mass transitions to teleworking. Economic activity remains closely linked to the course of the pandemic. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated recently, “the COVID-19 pandemic continues to weigh heavily on economic activity ....

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