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Their vote. ron so for democrats there s a lesson here that there may be the ability to mobilize their voters. yes, california is unusually favorable to rain. but pointing out the contrast on how to respond to covid, tying republicans not only to trump but to florida and texas, cl clearly was a big wake-up call for democrats in california and i think some democrats are going to see it as a wake-up call ron, let me ask you this. this is just me. i m not a political analyst. people just weren t dialed in. when there was so much consternation about oh my gosh, gavin newsom, you better look out, things are tighter, how much was people were just not dialed in at the moment, the polling was too early, they weren t ready to hadn t figured it out? just a quick my quick thought. among registered voters as harry knows, among registered voters he was always way ahead. the only time the race was close in the polls was when people did likely voter screens and found fewer democrats t ....
Wisdom and consensus that oh, my gosh, if something goes, it s going to be the house and it could blow big. and i think but i think democrats at large are anxious because there s so much understanding that you can t rely on polls. i think we have a secret hope nobody wants to voice that the blue wave can actually be bigger than expected but people are scared. and that s the thing, there was a concern right after 16, boy, did the trump voter not make it into likely voter screens? we go out of our way in the nbc news/ the wall street journal poll to do that, which may be why we re in a more small conservative window of a seven-point likely voter model for instance. i do sense a lot of anxiety among democrats. i think they re still traumatized from two years ago. he with saw the limitations of trying to model an electorate when there s a black swan event like president trump. his being on the ballot created a different electorate. ....
63,000 for the this election. the previous record, less than half that. right, look, everyone was expecting a big turnout in this election. that number is astounding. again, you figure that the early vote is to some measure cannibalizing, you know, the day of vote. but we don t know how much or clearly not all of that is cannibalization. and so a lot of people are going to vote. and i have a feeling, this is not a scientific feeling. but after the experience of pollsters essentially underestimating the trump vote in 2016, my gut is that there s been something of an overcompensation in all of the sort of likely voter screens and filtering done to polls is being carefully weighted not to make that mistake and maybe to make the opposite mistake. so i would say stay tuned in texas. ....
Underestimating the trump vote in 2016, my gut is that there s been something of an oe overcompensation in all of the sort of likely voter screens and filtering done to polls is being carefully weighted not to make that mistake and maybe to make the opposite mistake. so i would say stay tuned in texas. yeah, polling is an art and not or a science. or it s a mix of art and science, and we will see how it turns out on election day. thanks for joining us in that round. and when we come back, the president of turkey says that he will reveal he personally will reveal the truth about the murder of jamal khashoggi tomorrow. congressman eric swalwell will join us on that. if you re waiting patiently for a liver transplant, it could cost you your life. it s time to get out of line with upmc. at upmc, living-donor transplants put you first. ....
Races basically being run as localized campaigns? or are we seeing the trump effect in the drop for republican senate candidates? well, there was a drop, but i think what it was was a drop of enthusiasm. that as, you know, you got past the third debate. trump s numbers started really dropping. and as a result, republican voters started losing heart, losing enthusiasm, which meant they started dropping out of the, not passing through the likely voter screens, and thus you started seeing democratic numbers starting to balloon out. so it was really a loss of enthusiasm and likelihood of voting for republicans that caused this yawning, this opening up of numbers for democrats in a number of these really close races. so final verdict, charlie, no big change from thursday, the day before the comey letter to ....