Vinay Jaising says: Capex investments have grown 5.6x in the last decade and now account for 3.3% of the GDP (not including PSU spend or state spend). In absolute terms, we expect over 30% growth YoY in capex expenditure by the government. Rural investments, which were a bit lower in the last two years, should get a fillip as well in both the budgets of at least 10% YoY.
A lot also depends on what the market is expecting, however a HIGH for long interest rates can certainly put pressure on global economic growth as well as market multiples.
India s dependence on global markets for liquidity has reduced, with retail India providing strong inflows. rising US yields will not have a severe impact on India, as the country is more resilient and has seen higher interest rates in the past. Indian markets may be sideways in the medium term, but quarterly results and earnings growth will drive market performance. JM Financial Services is researching and keeping an eye on opportunities in the finsumption, capex, and Make in India sectors.
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“We are seeing the earnings growth trajectory of India led by banks, the capital goods sector doing very well and FII inflows. In the last week or two, FYTD is up a solid $18 billion. But yet, over three years, we are a negative number. If India s GDP is growing at four times that of the rest of the world, the risk-off trade should be a big vantage point for India.”