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Get you back to flat the question is a recession ahead . Ray dalia was on cnbc this morning with some of his odds. Take a listen. Recessions are always inevitable the only question is when. Do you see one coming yeah, i think that in the next two years, lets say prior to the next election, theres probably a 40 chance of a recession. And i think that youre seeing this around the world. You know, big discussion in the last hour, guys, about what is going into some of these recession models, why some of high yield spreads are not confirming them, whether theyre based around the yield spread or more a lot of companies in tech are starting to catch a cold plant materials which i did cover last night as promised the numbers werent that bad they werent far off of what was expected but their memory business is in this memory slump and people seem to get a bit skittish about that we had cisco talking about how the uncertainty is contributing to their cautious guidance the scary music is startin ....
You do have financials and Energy Taking up the slack to some degree. Inconclusive, indecisive action. Were 4 below the highs the treasury yields remain in fo focus. We did break out on tenyear yields above 4. 25 taking us back to 2008 the 30s are at 4. 40. Its a consistent story were pricing for a better growth economy, high real inflation adjustment yields. We can bet the economy can handle it or not plus a supply demand issue for debt. Look, the latest data is supportive of those higher yields we got jobless claims below 240. Psychologically important. Theres the yellow bankruptcy factoring in so far no evidence of real mass l layoffs in this economy. We have philly fed which was sharply higher and the first positive read since last august and prices paid inside of that, which a lot of people look at, looking for inflation cues was a little higher. You add that to the other data weve gotten this week its not earthshaking data. I ....
Welcome to bloomberg markets. Take a look at the markets. I have green on the screen behind me. The s p 500 up. 5. Same with big tech. Yields higher as well. Take a look at the 10year treasury yield higher by four basis points. Solidly over 4 . Added thanks to this mornings cpi data. Lets get a break down from mike mckeon. It came in hot. I would say it came in warm. The headline was that it was higher than expected coming in at. 4 rather than. 3 . A lot of that is due to energy and the fed will look past that. The core rate came in unchanged, a. 4 percent increase. What went up . Car insurance went up. It continues to do that. It is a sticky Price Inflation thing. Gasoline up 3. 8 . It had been a regular dropping gasoline for months and it has turned the other way as gasoline usage takes up here used cars up. 5 . 6 for apparel. Dani burger was pointing out that most of that was for womenswear. Bad news there. What does it mean f ....
That i will return to this, you responded very easily to tanyas question, as you explained it to yourself there lack of initiative, yes we call it that now, now we know about it before you described its just that shtir should simply come to the music 17th moment of spring and you are very responded easily and began accordingly, to explain with such joy, you know, we sat down on such a psychological defense, which is called rationalization, but one of our favorites, of course , i then need to explain everything to myself, i understood it then, why did i ask the question, why do i need to explain . But i would still ask the question, how did you feel when a man does not answer, when a man does not insist, when a man does not take the first steps, what did you feel at that moment, that you had to rationalize it . Anxiety, what were you worried about . But that there is something wrong with me, and they dont choose me, they dont choose me, yes, so he never chose you, and im afraid that mom ....