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come in and supply ukraine with so much money, and so many weapons. but this is a significant escalation from vladimir putin. the fact that he s calling up the reservists shows that he has no intention of backing away from this war. in fact, in his comments, he framed the war not against ukraine, he described this as a war against the west. and that the west, he didn t mention the united states, but clearly, that s the main power he s referring to, has been propping up ukraine and intends to bring down russia and bring down the russian federation the same way that the west primarily the united states, toppled the soviet union. so he is framing this very much as an existential fight for russia. and in order to fight this fight, he s calling up the reservists and making nuclear threats to show that he is serious and that he has no intention of backing down. so, richard, is there a sense this could lead to some sort of nuclear standoff? i think that is where this is he ....
And just kind of keep the possibilities in my mind open there. and look at all indicators, like primary turnout, as well. well, i like your piece, david, because it somewhat makes the case for focus groups, for adding in a human touch that s been cure rated for a certain electorate you re trying to track. are there any states that you re seeing this year, where the polling seems to be particularly dicey? yeah, so it s interesting. there s a number of states sort of in that midwestern tier where the polls have been along before that everyone in the world in data is kind of biting their fingernails over. you have states like pennsylvania, you have states like wisconsin, you have ohio. all of these rust belt states where people are kind of saying, okay, are the polls going to move towards republicans, understatement republicans again and have the pollsters really done enough to sort of eliminate the errors that we ve seen before. so i would say that sort of core tier of swing states i ....
Going to be a big issue today. and this issue about credit cards and guns are going to be a very big issue today. i think you re going to see lots of questioning about the role that banks play or should be playing or might be playing soon, in monitoring gun sales and you already just saw some of the red state ags come out against this. and i think you re going to see quizzing on all of these big social issues, which, of course, becomes very political. absolutely does. cnbc s andrew ross sorkin, thank you very much. we ll be talking to you about all of this tomorrow. coming up, the top republican in arizona s statehouse warns that a proposal from his fellow republicans could take the state back to the dark ages. we ll explain that. plus, our next guest says that there s a key indicator that looks good for republicans heading into the midterms. that is straight ahead on morning joe. that is straight morning joe. ....
Latest survey from politico and morning consult shows 46% of voters say that they would vote for the democratic candidate on the ballot, if the election were held today. 41% say that they would vote republican. this lead for the democrats has grown since march, but our next guest is looking into one little-known election predictor that he says should worry democrats. joining us now, columnist and data analyst for the washington post, david byler. dave, what is this predictor that you are focused on. right, so it s a really simple predictor. it s just primary turnout. if you total up the number of people who voted in republican primaries and the number of people who voted in democratic primaries and you see who won, you see the republicans have about a 4 or 5-point advantage in this metric. and i think that might mean something. because the last two times republicans won on this metric were 2010 and 2014 and in those ....