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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 11, 2024

We welcome you on the simulcast. Bloomberg radio and Bloomberg Television across this nation and worldwide. This due of news is just extraordinary. An important moment will be Lawrence Kudlow after the jobs report. But jon, i want to talk for a moment about the markets. Affected. Oeing come up 5 . Igit 13 on the s p 500 yeartodate, and the nasdaq 100, lisa has loaded the boat on the nasdaq, up 38 . This is a boom and great bull market. Jonathan record on the nasdaq, just off that on the s p 500. The market has ignored all of the bad stuff over the last month and held onto all of the good stuff. Does that change in 29 minutes . The payrolls report, the estimate for hunted 60,000 the estimate 460,000. Tom Kevin Cirilli talking about the enthusiasm to get something done. We will talk about that in the moment. I love w ....

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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

Worldwide, and television as well. A bit of a fog and rain in new york. A fog towards the election seven days on. After the carnage we saw yesterday, we really have to recalibrate where we are because we advanced so nicely for it yesterday. It really isnt all that much of a pull back to, is it pullback technically, is it . Jonathan lets be clear, the s p 500 might be bouncing back by about 0. 5 , europe is not as all. Not just the caseload, but also the restrictions around the continent. Europe has a problem. I keep talking about this. Theres a real issue in the european economy. The recovery had already lost moment him just lost momentum. Then you throw this on top already lost momentum. They need for this on top . It doesnt look good. Ecb that gets to in meeting. S of freedom that Christine Lagarde has gets ever more narrow, doesnt it . Jonathan keep financial conditions loose. What i found fascinating, and guy and i went bac ....

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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

American labor economy will fold into what we hear from that press conference. , howevera longer bid long rates will stay. But then there is this reality of x million of people here with no hope of a job. Jonathan we get the forecast and i think that is important. This Federal Reserve may have to upgrade them and say we are not doing anything for a long time. Tom while you were sleeping, i was saying following this delegate meeting. Saveel mckee is going to me and the 2 00 p. M. Show. Nuancescacies here, the i would suggest would be important. I was up at 1 00 eastern just to throw that out here. 1 00 eastern your time. Lisa, a retail sales late this morning. Lisa 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. To be the first read on Consumer Spending aspect and thats at the extra jobless benefit that did end of the end of july. We will be getting the
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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

You are, a lockdown. A judicial lockdown in washington as well. One of the tea leaves am looking at is strong in, really indicative of the correlated angst we are seeing right now strong yen, really into get of of the correlated angst we are seeing right now. Jonathan in europe, the ftse off by more than 3 . The dax off by 3. 25 . Europe also looking to washington. Let me be clear about that. That has been the conversation throughout the morning here in london. What do the evans over the weekend me for policy and washington, d. C. . The past toward the fisc or agreement much trickier now toward fiscal agreement much trickier now. Point, there was a huge worry on wall street about the period from november after the election went into the end of january. For market participants, they are probably a little more worried about that this morning. Tom not just 40 days away from the election. I think really unspoken in all of this is eight days to the first president ial debate. That has radic ....

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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance July 12, 2024

To see a two year yield come in and a 10 year bond coming in with a vengeance. Coming in is that signal slowdown, massive curve flattening. Jonathan 10year yield breaking down. We are down eight points on the s p 500. Lisa, phase one was about access to capital and drawing down credit lines. Phase two is about the permanent decisions, cuts and layoffs. That is what has been building this week. Lisa we have seen those cuts and layoffs likely to be ongoing with a number of cfos studies pointing at Bigger Companies looking to shrink their workforce further through the end of the year. The thing im watching is how much can we plug the gap, the deficit of production with regards to fiscal stimulus . As we wait for that, we will be waiting for the data coming out today. We get the u. S. June Producer Price index, measure of inflation. 1 00 p. M. , this will be interesting in ligh ....

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