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In from outside gallup, the university of michigan, texas, maryland. we ve really taken the hood off to look at what we did last fall to try to answer your question. four things, likely voter estimation. we had obama up by three points among registered voters, which is about where he was at the end. won by about 3.85%. moved it down to a one-point romney lead, and that was more than the average for all other models of a similar fashion out there and we think we overcorrected. so the model itself is something that we really think needs reevaluating. this is an historic way we ve calculated for decades, but we re going to use new jersey and we re going to use virginia and those races working with the university of michigan to really try to figure out how in today s changing environment you do the best job of estimating. so, frank, let me ask you this, what happened, there were times you guys put out a poll and you d have romney up by 9, 10, or 11. and you talked to the obama people and ....
Same thing day in and day out. look at these polls. and they go, we re up by three. look at these polls, no matter where you went, look at our 3%, 4%, 5%. how did you guys get it so wrong? it wasn t just the likely voter approach. what changed from what you ve done through all the years to 2012? well, there are other factors. there were times when certainly we did have him up. we think romney may have been up at times, even if the smoothed over polls of the obama administration did not show it. other polls had romney up in october, as well. we clearly were at the outer edge. there are other factors involved. the way we conduct surveys, that were needed to be changed and we re changing them in the process of changing. how is that? we hear a lot need to have a lot more focus on cell phones. are you guys looking at that, as ....
And we re in the process and have already changed to. how do you get to likely voters? how do you nail down likely voters? was that an issue at all for you last fall? we think it was. keep in mind, i think obama won by about four points. the average poll said obama was going to win by one point. the whole industry had some things going on that were not right last fall. and hopefully we re helping to contribute to understand the whole industry. we ve used a model for many years. we ask people questions, it s called boot strapping. your interest in the election, do you plan to vote, what s your history of voting. and based on that, we calculate our estimate of who is likely to vote and who isn t. and those are the people we count. it s similar to what other people use. but we overcorrected. that model probably moved us too far towards romney and that s when i mentioned a moment ago. that model probably needs a complete overhaul and we re working with the university of michigan this f ....
Romney is seriously competing in these states, should they have spent money earlier to shore up those voting blocks, to make sure it wasn t even close? that they can t make a real play? you know, listen, i think when you look at this battleground map, and this has been one of the most difficult races to get kind of a handle on because you have national polls, you know, most of them showing a small, narrow romney lead. you have battleground polls showing a small, narrow obama lead. it is a very different state to get a grasp on. all that being said when you look at the battleground map and focus on the key states that i think the obama campaign is focused on, with key firewalls in wisconsin, ohio, virginia, florida, those are the states that romney must win to win this election, in particular, ohio, virginia, florida. you stop him in any one of those three states, president obama stays president. so that s the strategy. you don t want to bleed yourself so much, even with the amount of ....
Different than the person that you ll only find the innovative sleep number bed at one of our he showed himself to be in 2008. 400 stores, where queen mattresses start at just $699. i mean, you talk about the smallest of things, bayonets, big bird, a dunce cap on romney, sean: and this is a fox news alert. con edison in new york is reporting that large portions of accusing him of murder, dirty mid town manhattan are now air and aware. a pro obama super pac just came without power. over 250,000 customers are in out. watch this bad. the dark. new york governor cuomo s office how bad and how low this sunk is reporting that there are and how beneath the dignity of the office of the presidency storm-related deaths tonight. meanwhile as election day fast this is. mitis. approaches, both campaigns have flooded the air waves in key watch this. battleground states with television ads and a last ditch effort to sway undecided voters. joining me to help all sort it the week before they came ....