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And civil wars and intergroup violence and they were saying that that s incredibly unusual that that s like flipping a coin and i m getting heads 27 times in a row which is quite alarming. yeah, but, robin, you said in your article that an increase on average of 2 degrees celsius is likely to happen around the world by 2014 rather 2040. 2040, right. 25, 26 years from now. i mean then we re all going to go and get angrier. the one kind of ray of hope in that figure is that what they didn t necessarily look at was the gradual increase over time. so that is quite a few years from now that several decades, so it s not necessarily saying that over time that that would happen, that 50% increase, right now it looks at if, say, tomorrow there was a 2% increase, then that would be more likely. now, they didn t say that would not happen but something they haven t considered yet which is definitely a study i think they ll look into going forward. absolutely fascinate. robin wilkey and ....
Technically, how does it back it up? the study is really interesting because it takes data going back for many, many years, it takes data from around the world and sort of really shows quantitatively that increases in temperature, increases in drought are dire directdirect ly affiliated with increases in violence of all kinds. yeah. you know, we ve seen it not just with political unrest and political violence but also as you say increases in temperature in cities will lead to increased domestic violence. very comprehensive. you know, it s an interesting study that, robin, you have highlighted an alarming section of the study in the article you wrote for the huffington post which says we found that a one standard deviation shift causes the likelihood of personal violence to rise 4% and intergroup conflict to rise 14%. so you re saying a temperature ....
Spike of just two degrees on average could increase the likelihood of civil wars by 50%. can you break that down? right, and, alex, the study wasn t necessarily saying that that would lead to that. it s saying that if trends continue as they have been in the past that that kind of a warming could cause that kind of an increase in violence. okay. it also talks about, though, droughts and floods and tying that to human conflict. is that a fair assessment, robin? right, and i think coral hit the nail on the head when she was talking about that kind of being that final spark. when you already have climate affecting things like farming, agriculture, crops, kind of the economics and that starts brewing, then when you have that rise in temperature on top of that that s when we really have that stronger spike, especially in intergroup violence. for instance, in the research they looked at 27 different modern societies and found that in all 27 cases, there was a positive correlation betwe ....