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Today is 092023 and I head to Savannah, GA for the SECUREN (credit union) conference. Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? In other “fun with numbers,” as a stockholder in a lender, how’d you like $5 million because your company couldn’t keep its costs down? The median sale price per square foot in Savannah is $197, up 13 percent since last year, if you believe Redfin. Want to build wealth? The median sale price per square foot for new single-family homes in the U.S. has increased a whopping 368 percent since 1980. Additionally, the median square footage for homes in the U.S. has increased 52 percent since 1980, while the median sale price has increased 609 percent. Compared to 2008, the peak financial crisis, home buyers today face an 85% higher median sale price per square foot of homes. California is the most expensive state when looking at price per square foot. Highest and lowest cities? San Jose at $845 per square foot, Cleveland at $133 p ....
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Notes to start off the week?! First off, there are some darned clever people around, and this ditty (thank you to John H. for sending) sung to “American Pie” and lamenting the loss of the refi biz, ranks right up there for quality! (“… I can’t remember if I cried, when I read my client’s DTI, now considered too damn high…”) Second, lumber prices have dropped as the mortgage market has slowed. Lumber now comes in at $829 per 1,000 board feet, down 39 percent from its 2022 high of $1,357 in March. (To keep your perspective, today’s price is still nowhere near pre-pandemic levels of $300 – $500; One can always increase timber cutting on Federal land or reduce tariffs on Canadian lumber.) For bad news, last week investors focused on inflation with Treasury yields climbing higher, and back-to-back inflation reports showed prices posting record advances. On Thursday, the benchmark risk-free 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ramp ....
The risk-free 2-year Treasury began 2022 yielding .73 and is now at 2.52 percent! Does your company offer 2-1 buydown loans? Do your LOs even know what a 2-1 buydown loan is? (If they don’t, bring them up to speed internally or through a program like XINNIX.) Things are changing. My gauge is very unofficial, but the number of emails saying, “Hey Rob, I am retiring but love your Commentary so can you change my email to…” is picking up. And I received this note from a mortgage vet. “Well, with the rates going up, looks like the mortgage industry is heading for another purge. We’ll start seeing the LOs that only had refi business slowly migrate away. Loss of ops staff still continuing. Like we haven’t heard this song before.” Lending aside, what do we make of these recent headlines? Investors place inflation bet on US farmland. Prices for prime Midwest ground climbed by up to a third in the past year as world food prices hit records. ....