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RBI policy bullish on growth, cautious on new inflation risks

Overall, the MPC’s bullish expectations around the growth outlook and its forecast of CPI inflation to ease, albeit remaining above the 4 percent target, reinforces our view of a likely shallow rate cut cycle. We foresee cumulative rate cuts of 50-75 bps, commencing in the August 2024 meeting, and a stance change in the preceding review, after there is some visibility on the monsoon turnout ....

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