Nigerian food costs are growing at the fastest pace in more than 15 years
Nigeriaâs key interest rate is likely to remain unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as concerns about the fragility of its economic recovery outweigh concerns about inflation that is more than double the ceiling of the bankâs official target.
While the economy came out of a recession in the fourth quarter and the IMF sees it growing at 2.5% in 2021, Governor Godwin Emefiele said in March the central bank can only effectively shift to taming price growth once itâs comfortable that output has reached âcruise level.â
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Central bank’s multiple goals make future steps unpredictable
General Economy As Nigeria Faces Rising Debt In 2020
Nigeria’s central bank has analysts guessing about its interest-rate path this year, underscoring the distortions that are stoking inflation while output is languishing in Africa’s largest economy.
All but two of the 18 economists and investors surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the central bank will keep its monetary policy rate steady at 11.5% on Tuesday. However, the outlook for the rest of the year is far less certain.
Of the 18 respondents, 11 said the central bank will raise the key rate rate this year, with forecasts for tightening ranging from 100 basis points to 350 basis points. The rest project policy makers will hold or slash borrowing costs, with one predicting a 400 basis-point reduction.