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The model reliability is low at this point of time, the precursors are all hinting at an evolving El Nino during the monsoon months. The process may as well start, earlier than expected. ....
El Nino pattern does not repeat itself verbatim. However, in general, El Nino events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun and quite often reach their maximum intensity during Oct-Feb. ....
The first triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century will continue to affect temperature and precipitation patterns. It will also exacerbate drought and flooding in different parts of the world. The continuation of La Nina for the 4th consecutive year does not find recorded in history, since 1950. ....
The current La Nina will run through the fall of this year and possibly extend to the winters of next year. Therefore, the La Nina event will step into 3rd consecutive winter of the Northern Hemisphere. ....