Skymet had earlier predicted the monsoon onset on 7th June with an error margin of 3 days. The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive within this bracket. Onset criteria require stipulated rainfall on 2 consecutive days over Lakshadweep, Kerala and Coastal Karnataka.
Indian seas are likely to be active basins during the 2nd week of June. The trio of El Nino, IOD and MJO has a significant role in accelerating the monsoon stream during the initial onset phase.
As per normal dates, the monsoon reaches Mumbai and Kolkata between the 10th and 12th of June. The monsoon arrival date for Delhi has now been revised to 27th June from its earlier landing on 29th June.
Global average temperatures tend to be higher in El Nino years. A spike in global temperature over ocean and land leads to an uptick in extreme heat, hazardous tropical cyclones, and disturbing ecological balance posing a serious threat to mass mortality of delicate sea life, especially fish and coral reefs.
Global average temperatures tend to be higher in El Nino years than in La Nina or ENSO-neutral years. Warm ocean conditions are not just limited to the tropical Pacific, most other oceans globally are in the grip of rising spree. Glimpse of cool are rather few and getting outperformed by global simmering.