Fresh weather system is likely to come up over Bay of Bengal around 16-17 October, to start with as cyclonic circulation or low pressure area. Strengthening of this system and subsequent movement closer to the east coast, may restrict further withdrawal from West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra.
Monsoon withdrawal need not be construed as total cessation of rains, thereafter. Under favorable conditions, some weather activity, albeit light and scattered in nature, is an integral part of withdrawal pattern. Monsoon systems will continue to emerge over Bay of Bengal and move inland.
The exercise of withdrawal from the country is complete between 15th and 20thOctober. Occasionally, it may coincide with simultaneous arrival of Northeast Monsoon over South India, as it happened last year on 24thOctober.
Another system is expected to form in the Bay of Bengal, close on the heels on the earlier one which now low Pressure area over parts of Uttar Pradesh and will gradually flatten. By the time it flattens completely we expect the system to mark its presence. This system will start as a cyclonic circulation forming around September 17 over North Bay of Bengal.
Now also, parts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam may see heavy to very heavy rains today, but Meghalaya will not see intense rains. This spike in activity will last till tomorrow, at a reducing note. Relief is expected around June 30. However, with a fresh spell of rains, flood situation may once again worsen over Assam region.