And what i know here, if we look at the democratic races, a great deal of their competitive races have occurred when the candidate is leading in National Polls readers for the election. So right now doesnt run. Ted kennedy in 1972 and again in 1970s pics three years before the primaries he was the leading candidate. He didnt run. Gary hart dropped out in 1997. Mario cuomo didnt run in 1992. Hillary clinton didnt run in 2004. And each of those democratic years wound up being more competitive. We see a whole lot less agreement among party insiders. Im not showing it in this paper, but the endorsement data for these elections is a lot less consensus among democrats. They are dividing their support among different candidates, but also importantly much more of the Democratic Party establishment spits out. They dont make an endorsement at all. We see that in the republican side of it in 2008 and 2012. For republicans in those years mitt romney, for example, was the consensus pick of the esta
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