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So you think that despite the fact that your models are less confident of a hillary victo victory i don t think the main difference between the models is how far clinton is ahead. the difference is how far the results could differ from our current estimate of the race. you still think, in other words, on the coin toss, trump might win. it could happen. really. guys, thank you. real pleasure. thank you. next on gps, america has never seen an election like it, but surely, there are some precedents for some aspects of it. i have four very smart historians to discuss it all when we come back. what powers the digital world? communication. like centurylink s broadband network that gives 35,000 fans a cutting edge game experience. or the network that keeps a leading hotel chain s guests connected at work, and at play. ....
International affairs, i m also aware of how fragile democracy is. look at poland. the poster child for democracy in europe over the last 25 years, where a new party in power has subordinated the judiciary courts and media to its authority. look at russia, where the democratic tradition so promising in the 1990s has almost vanished. look at turkey, where a once reformist leader has decided to accumulate power and erode traditions of freedom and democracy that were rare in the middle east. it doesn t feel like it could happen in america, the oldest constitutional democracy in the world, with many checks and balances. but in fact, it takes one man, one party, one vote to break long-standing traditions of constitutionalism, and the system can morph. we now face the prospect of a candidate refusing to accept the outcome of the election. of mobs protesting and perhaps hoping to change that outcome because they have been fed lies about voter fraud, of congress ....
I believe hillary clinton will win. i don t think it will be by a large margin, but she will win. i believe the senate can go democratic, and if it does, you have a very interesting dynamic in the senate. you have a progressive caucus for the first time. senator warren, senator sanders, senator sherrod brown, jeff m k merkl merkley. i think you also have the ability to hold hearings on things that matter to the american people. bernie sanders asked the department of justice to hold hearings on drug companies collusion. i think you have interesting new progressives in the house who will lead initiatives and in washington state, jamie rasken in maryland, and i think the court becomes vital. i know there s now obstructionism and the republicans vowing they will not permit a vote on a supreme court nominee. i think it s un-american, unconstitutional. trumpism isn t going away. the fact this election is so close forced us to do some soul ....
At this point, the most likely outcome is probably a 50/50 senate with whomever the vice president is breaking the tie. we keep talking about tuesday as though it s election day. but in fact, 40 million people roughly have already voted. what do we know from the early voting? what conclusions can you draw? i think that we know this is a presidentialelectorate. this will not be a low-turnout election. many parts of the country, the turnout will surpass that of 2012. a presidential electorate will draw millions of young and non-white voters. it may not be the same as the electorate that voted for the president in 2012. hispanic voters could tick up perhaps significantly, but the electorate we re seeing is largely the electorate assumed by the polls. we see a real surge in hispanic voting, right? that wasn t inevitable, and there are parts of the country right now where the early vote has already exceeded the total ....
In this election in ways we have not seen in a long time. the stunning absence of any policy discussions, maybe on immigration and trade a little, the trivialization, the obliteration of the line between news and entertainment, the abetting of donald trump. now there has been fine reporting, but until we have a media which illuminates and it s not left/right. it s about public interest and what is in people s communities, what s on people s minds. we re destined to have a kind of demagogry which afflicts our political system. j.d., i m going to give you the last word because it does seem to me this cultural issue, we don t know how to talk about it. every solution we come up with tends to be, let s do a credit for this, rework our retraining. maybe these trade deals need to be renegotiated. it s harder to deal with these cultural issues. it diefinitely is harder to deal with these cultural issues. you look at these issues from the opioid epidemic to family breakdown. ....