at this point, the most likely outcome is probably a 50/50 senate with whomever the vice president is breaking the tie. >> we keep talking about tuesday as though it's election day. but in fact, 40 million people roughly have already voted. what do we know from the early voting? what conclusions can you draw? >> i think that we know this is a presidentialelectorate. this will not be a low-turnout election. many parts of the country, the turnout will surpass that of 2012. a presidential electorate will draw millions of young and non-white voters. it may not be the same as the electorate that voted for the president in 2012. hispanic voters could tick up perhaps significantly, but the electorate we're seeing is largely the electorate assumed by the polls. >> we see a real surge in hispanic voting, right? >> that wasn't inevitable, and there are parts of the country right now where the early vote has already exceeded the total