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Lake Ontario Flood Risk Diminishes; Very High Outflows To Continue


Lakeshore of Lake Ontario near Rudy s April 11, 2020. Photo by: Kassadee Paulo.
OSWEGO – The risk of flooding on Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River has declined from moderate in December 2020 to low, according to the International Joint Commission.
In December, the risk analysis indicated a 28% chance of water levels exceeding a threshold at which damages occur in many shoreline communities. The risk is now down to 8%. There is a comparable risk of flooding on Lake St. Louis in the lower St. Lawrence River.
This risk reduction is largely the result of dry conditions throughout the Great Lakes Basin in January and February. Lake Ontario water levels declined 8 cm in January and 7 cm in February. Lake Ontario’s level is currently 11 cm (4.3 in) below the long-term average (LTA) level for this time of year. The lake level is almost 2 ft (58 cm) lower than at this time a year ago and the lowest it has been at this time of year since 2015. ....

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