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New approach can improve COVID-19 predictions worldwide ANI | Updated: Dec 15, 2020 22:26 IST
Copenhagen [Denmark], December 15 (ANI): Methods currently used for predicting the development of COVID-19 and other pandemics fail to report precisely on the best and worst-case scenarios. Newly developed prediction method for epidemics, published in Nature Physics, solve this problem. It is about understanding best and worst-case scenarios and the fact that worst case is one of the most important things to keep track of when navigating through pandemics regardless whether it be in Denmark, the EU, the USA or the WHO. If you are only presented with an average estimate for the development of an epidemic-not knowing how bad it possible can get, then it is difficult to act politically, says Professor Sune Lehmann, one of four authors of the article Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles just published in
Researchers develop new method to predict COVID-19 worldwide
Methods currently used around the world for predicting the development of COVID-19 and other pandemics fail to report precisely on the best and worst-case scenarios. Newly developed prediction method for epidemics, published in Nature Physics, solve this problem.
It is about understanding best and worst-case scenarios - and the fact that worst case is one of the most important things to keep track of when navigating through pandemics - regardless whether it be in Denmark, the EU, the USA or the WHO. If you are only presented with an average estimate for the development of an epidemic - not knowing how bad it possible can get, then it is difficult to act politically.