New approach can improve COVID-19 predictions worldwide
ANI |
Updated: Dec 15, 2020 22:26 IST
Copenhagen [Denmark], December 15 (ANI): Methods currently used for predicting the development of COVID-19 and other pandemics fail to report precisely on the best and worst-case scenarios. Newly developed prediction method for epidemics, published in Nature Physics, solve this problem.
"It is about understanding best and worst-case scenarios-- and the fact that worst case is one of the most important things to keep track of when navigating through pandemics--regardless whether it be in Denmark, the EU, the USA or the WHO. If you are only presented with an average estimate for the development of an epidemic-not knowing how bad it possible can get, then it is difficult to act politically," says Professor Sune Lehmann, one of four authors of the article Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles just published in Nature Physics.