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U.s. to fall into recession. only way to fall into recession is if the fed is so focused on 2% and wants to deliver it quickly that it overtightens. sandra: and the 2% is 2% inflation. so if they are so aggressive at achieving that, he s warning there is no reason for recession, but they inflict so much pain on the american economy that possibly drives us to recession. muhammad is a friend, a great guy but a lot is baked in the cake. looking at models i like, 70% chance of recession the next 12 months, that s my view based on the collapse of the index of leading indicators, collapse of the money supply, the inverted yield curve, so i think you are seeing a recession in manufacturing already, ism manufacturing index was down for the 8th straight month, some such thing, get services out ....