editorial report. we hook ahead to 2024 and a new set of challenges and opportunities for the country. i m edward lawrence in this week for paul gigot, and we begin with the u.s. economy which defied expectations in 2023 as inflation fell and recession fierce faded. now the santa claus rally in the stock market giving us another record close this week for the dow jones industrial average and the federal reserve signal rate hikes are done and cuts could be in store for 2024. let s bring in jason trennert, he s the chairman and ceo of strategists and investment strategy firm. jason, let s start overall here, we get this. you know, overall we get some the contrarians won in 2023. so people were projecting the most predictive recession in history, and it didn t happen. so is the recession then off the table for 2024? edward, it probably is. i will say that the recession didn t happen in 2023 partly because we ran a budget deficit of close to 6% of gdp, $2 trillion at full em
even say i guess how old i am. i can t even say the number. it doesn t register with me. and only thing i can say is that, one of the things that people are going to find out they re going see a race and they re going to judge whether or not i have it or don t have it i respect them taking a hard look at it i would as well. i took a hard look at it before i decided to run. paul: let s bring in poll strer strategist doug served as advisor to former bill clinton doug nice to see you again. good to be here, paul. polls say majority of democrats would prefer another candidate to be their nominee in 2024 can you remember a case when that was the true incumbent? i can t remember a case where that was true of the incumbent or case where the field of perspective challengers to the president was as frankly limited as the field would be. there s an old adage in politics you can t beat somebody with nobody. that s what we re facing. paul: is there a doubt about him related to his
this week s actions demonstrate our resolute commitment to insure that our financial system remains strong and that depositors savings remain safe. paul: let s bring in jason trender, chairman and ceo of an investment strategy firm. jason, quite a week in financial markets. you know, the treasury secretary says all is well, safe and sound, but the markets aren t acting like it. just how big a question a problem is this in the banking system? well, paul, we don t know yet, but i think that, you know, history has taught us that, generally speaking, when there are problems like this in the banking system, they re not they generally don t tend to be isolated. i feel very strongly that in many ways the precursor for this has been 12 the years of i would say borderline irresponsible monoair the policy and fiscal policy paul: right. and so in some ways, it s not surprising that when inflation moves higher as a result of those policies, that people get caught offsides when
Earnings. And your earnings read is. Some are cloudy, some are bright, some are messy. We will try to find a signal in all of the earnings noise. Im alix steel here with guy johnson in new york. So interesting to see the stock reaction to earnings. Finally, earnings seem to matter, but are we having the right takeaway if you are an investor . Guy difficult to draw a comprehensive conclusion. You need to take every stock on a casebycase basis. The answer to the question about the signal is really hard. Is there a signal in all of this, macro takeaway, something that we can deduce out of this that is useful beyond investing in the single stock story . What is happening in tech is so critical. Alix did you see the chart . Sell google, by microsoft. Guy now we wait for amazon to see what is the deciding vote. Will they provide the conclusion to this narrative . The existing market has broken because of you. Alix thank you. Guy the new homes market is not. That is a market that continues to
Paul: mortgage rates jump to the highest level in 20 years helping dr. mortgage applications to 3 decade low as borrowing costs surge and existing home sales tumbled, one of the many worries on wall street and main street as long-term interest rates rise. fed chairman jerome powell signaling interest rate increases could be coming. jason triggered is chairman and ceo of investment strategy firm. good to see you. why are long rates popping now? is it that investors here there is going to be more spending in government and more inflation or is it because they look at economic growth and it is higher than people estimate?