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Steel. the labor movement is not as big as it used to be. but this will be a key test of whether the democrats can close the intensity gap. we know right now it was the democrats in 2006 and 2008 who had all the energy at the grass roots. when you talk to people here and the union guys will tell you this privately. the democratic candidates will tell you this privately. the energy is on the other side now. can the president help gin up vote? maybe. can the labor unions help gin up the vote, they re going to be involved in a multimillion dollar effort here. between eight and 12 times, every household will hear from the union. phone call, visit them at work, they re trying to convince them, do not vote republican. we ll see if it works. and we ll know in this part of the state and the others by again two or three. there s a congressional seat near pittsburgh the republicans have targeted. another one up to the northwest corner of the state up in erie, the republicans have targeted. and a ....
President obama won by a huge land slide in 2008 because of increased turnout of young people and african-americans. will they vote this year? i want you to look at some interesting new numbers out today. is there an enthusiasm gap out there? there we go right here. nonhispanic white voters, black voters, african-american voters the yellow line. you see white voters are much more interested in the campaign than african-americans. that suggests african-american turnout will be down. younger voters is the gold line. again, look at that. not much interested at all in this campaign. older voters, slightly. that s still not a great number. much lower among young people. men and women down here, the purple line is women. much lower interest among women. men a bit higher. men vote more republican than women. when you look at something like that, we talk about an intensity gap and turnout. ....
Organization might i got to tell you something it s not a sure fire republicans do have a secret weapon. we re sending michael steele to guam for a couple weeks. the same argument was used on the virginia race last year, the new jersey, massachusetts race last year. what they found is all those resources, all that money didn t make up for the intensity gap for the angry independents. if labor day is monday and that s the curtain raiser on the stretch of it, when you say how do i want to look at the map, what is your question? oh, my gosh. it would be, who comes out to vote? it all comes down to that. you know, when your chart doesn t have senior voters, we know in midterm elections, 40% of the electorate are seniors and they ve never been a good group for barack obama. they ve been trending more and more republican. ....
one factor is in 1994, we saw the intensity gap at 6% in the spring grow to 10% during the summer and stay there. this year we saw it at 14 points in the spring, grow to 16 points. as you see there it s in many cases 17 points. that s only half the story. the other half is the independents. in an off-year election, it s the angry independents that turn out to vote. this isn t even reflecting those angry independents that also play into the republican s favor. so in 60 days, there are some things you can do tactically for the democrats, but that requires tough choices if you re speak e pelosi. you re going to say, you re eight, ten points down, you get no money. their majority depends on it. a new batch of polls are coming out next week. ....
Colorado. that helped bring romanoff become to the table much more quickly than some folks may have thought. this is right sleuthly right. this will be a tough race for democrats. colorado, classic rocky mountain west state we have talked so much about in 06 and 08, trending toward democrats, every indication now seems to be it is coming back toward the gop. you looked at the vote between buck and his opponent, they added up to a lot more votes than michael bennett got. exactly right. you talked to republicans out there and crowing about that intensity gap, they call it the fact that two contested primaries, high-profile primaries, the republicans got i think about 50,000 more votes out in the poll than democrats did that is a pretty ominous sign for democrats who have had great success recently, it is a centrist, maybe a shaved center right and hard for bennett, an appointee, has not run for ....