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The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study

Author summary Why was this study done? Most individuals who develop tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems, but new TB vaccine candidates may reduce this burden. Earlier studies have estimated the impact of individual diseases and health risks on rates of economic growth, but the potential gains to economic growth that could be produced by introducing novel TB vaccines have not been previously estimated. What did the researchers do and find? In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs, using a macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We compared scenarios for introduction of infant and adolescent/adult vaccine candidates to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. Compared to the no-new-vaccine counterfac ....

United Kingdom , Monte Carlo , United Kingdom Research Innovation Medical Council , World Health Assembly , United Nations Population Division , Research Council , World Health Organization , National Institutes Of Health , Countries Clinical Trials Partnership , World Bank , Global Burden Of Disease Collaborative Network , Vaccine Alliance , Melinda Gates Foundation , Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards , Canadian Centennial Scholarship Fund , United Kingdom Research Innovation Economic , Arcandj L , Creative Commons Attribution , United Kingdom Research , Innovation Medical Research Council , Wellcome Trust , National Institutes , Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership , Innovation Economic , Social Research Council , Eastern Mediterranean ,