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In Germany, factory orders for the month of December rose unexpectedly by 8.9% m/m compared to consensus expectations of -0.2%. The big jump was however largely due to some major orders related to airplane manufacturing. Looking past these orders, factory orders fell 2.2% m/m, which also appears more in line with German GDP shrinking 0.3% q/q in 2023Q4. ....
ECB President Lagarde said it is likely the ECB could begin to cut interest rates in the summer. She emphasised however the importance of data coming in late spring, thus reiterating the views of Chief Economist Philip Lane who spoke of the need for Q1 wage data that would not be available until end of April, thus only come in time for the Governing Council meeting in June. GC member Knot also pushed back against springtime rate cuts and market pricing stating, "markets are getting ahead of themselves on cuts". ....