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that is your third scenario where essentially you get two or three candidates all kind of in a lump, huh? this has happened several times in both parties. it s difficult to project a clear victory when there is only one or two percentage points between the first place finisher and the second place fin esh and the third place finisher. you say well there are three tickets out of iowa or four tickets out of iowa. this could happen this time around with mitt romney and ron paul and maybe rick santorum all finishing close to one another. with just continue the campaign. the campaign march through the four january events and then onto the big events in march. jon: then your fourth scenario a false start for a candidate who does well in iowa and then kind of fizzles i guess? sometimes iowa can fool us in another way. i think back to again, george h.w. bush but another election year, 1980 when

Rick santorumBattleground iowaRon paulMitt romneyFin eshJon scottBig events in marchAfghanistan all the wayGeorge bush