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Fed Speak Cemented Higher-for-Longer Case Last Week actionforex.com - get the latest breaking news, showbiz & celebrity photos, sport news & rumours, viral videos and top stories from actionforex.com Daily Mail and Mail on Sunday newspapers.
It’s all about March US payrolls today with consensus expecting another decent job growth of 214k in combination with a slightly lower unemployment rate (3.8% from 3.9) and firm wage pressure (0.3% M/M & 4.1% Y/Y). The rather high consensus bar and this week’s failed test push US yields through the roof suggests that those levels will be able to hold into this week’s close. The dollar proved to be vulnerable when the long end of the curve underperformed (rising inflation expectations?!), but found (safe haven) relief after yesterday’s late swoon in US stock markets (up to -1.5%). We expect EUR/USD to gradually return to the low 1.07 area. ....
Focus shifts to first major central bank gatherings of the year. Chronologically, the Bank of Japan has a first go tomorrow. Rumours suggested downward revisions to the near term growth outlook and the near/medium term inflation outlook. ....
Attention turned to central bank speeches again in absence of key eco data in the US and EMU. Chicago Fed Goolsbee had the biggest market impact. He said that markets may have put the cart before the horse on cuts. He’s seen surprising progress on services inflation, but want to see more progress on housing inflation. It triggered a new sell-off in US Treasuries with the front end of the curve underperforming. US yields add 4.7 bps (2-yr) to 0.5 bps (30-yr). German Bunds shadow the move to a lesser extent with yields rising up to 2.5 bps at the front end. The dollar fails to profit with EUR/USD going nowhere at 1.0875. Sterling slightly underperforms following the release of very weak December retail sales. EUR/GBP moves from 0.8560 towards 0.8590.' ....