Stay updated with breaking news from Fed barkin. Get real-time updates on events, politics, business, and more. Visit us for reliable news and exclusive interviews.
It’s all about March US payrolls today with consensus expecting another decent job growth of 214k in combination with a slightly lower unemployment rate (3.8% from 3.9) and firm wage pressure (0.3% M/M & 4.1% Y/Y). The rather high consensus bar and this week’s failed test push US yields through the roof suggests that those levels will be able to hold into this week’s close. The dollar proved to be vulnerable when the long end of the curve underperformed (rising inflation expectations?!), but found (safe haven) relief after yesterday’s late swoon in US stock markets (up to -1.5%). We expect EUR/USD to gradually return to the low 1.07 area. ....
Japanese stock markets and JPY still account for today’s biggest market move in a telling sign about current market momentum. The Nikkei closed slightly over 2% higher. USD/JPY sets a new YTD high at 149.40 with both the psychologic 150 mark and the 2022 (151.95) and 2023 (151.91) tops coming dangerously close. ....
The GBP/USD pair posts modest losses during the early Asian session on Thursday. The recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bond yields exerts some selling pressure on the pair. At the press time, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2665, up 0.01% on the day. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surges to 102.45, the highest in three weeks. ....
The dollar loved the combination of higher yields and some risk aversion with the trade-weighted greenback rallying from 101.42 to 102.20. Technically, DXY stays trapped in the downward trend channel since early November. EUR/USD fell from 1.1045 to 1.0942. A firmer floor below core bond yields could help a more firm bottoming out pattern in the dollar as well. ....