Dang there’s a lot going on in Texas. One week it’s raining “hail the size of goat balls” (not my term; it was the phrase used by the woman mortgage banker who wrote me), the next week the state is experiencing a heat “dome” while malaria is in the headlines and a San Antonio airport ramp worker was sucked into a jet engine (ruled a suicide). Meanwhile, per the latest report from the Dallas Fed, “Texas home prices have headed steadily higher, a byproduct of rising housing demand and pandemic-related supply shortages.” For any originator interested in demographics like that, on a national scale, in doing some work for The STRATMOR Group I came across the article, “The Racial Segregation of American Cities Was Anything but Accidental.” And in the capital markets, mortgage rates have gone up faster than the 10-year. The spread between the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and the 10-year bond yield has surpassed the highs of
Tired of playing Rummikub with the fam? (Why are those red 11’s always in short supply?) Let’s divert your attention and ease back into residential mortgages with a news story from the Census Bureau. Sorry California: for the first time since 1957 Florida is the fastest growing state. Sure, in “God’s waiting room” there are hurricanes, and the place is as flat as a pancake, but a 0 percent state income rate versus California’s 12 percent may have something to do with it. And then we have those winter temperatures to help one forget about the palmetto bugs (aka, wood cockroaches). Returning to the numbers, Florida has no state income tax, no tax on retirement income, no inheritance or estate taxes, has homestead exemptions for permanent residents, property tax cuts for anyone over 65 and for older veterans. Florida is certainly not broke but where do to ducats come from? Florida’s state government generates the bulk of general revenue (75
The other day I walked in on Myrtle who was looking at the litter cleaning robot on the screen as if to ask, “What’ll they think of next?” Businesses and arrangements are always coming and going. There’s a new in-house appraisal product, noted below. Who wants to go in with me on starting a 2nd home company with a common-sense name, nothing foreign sounding. “Let’s Split It.” (Tagline: “Your Perfect Vacation Home Awaits.”) Wouldn’t “I Gotta Guy” be a cool name for a business? And useful? Call the number, they hook you up with a plumber who shows up, or a gutter repair person who is competent, or whatever you need. New companies are out there. Ever heard of “Calque”? Me neither until Morgan C. from Highland Mortgage pointed out “The trade-in mortgage.” Freddie Mac announced its newly enhanced mortgage rate survey. Progress Residential, with over 85,000 single-family rental (SF
Running feels great unless you compare it to not running. While here in Northern California for a board meeting, I received, “I read your capital markets section every day because I can understand it, but can you please knock off using ‘basis points’? They are confusing.” I admit they take a while to understand, but easy to compare & convert the two. 1 percent is 100 basis points. 50 basis points is ½ of one percent. 75 basis points is ¾ of one percent. I mention this because “seventy-five basis points is the new 50 basis points.” Everyone was expecting ½ percent increases in Fed Funds, but no more. A relentlessly hawkish Federal Reserve is ramping up market expectations for big interest rate hikes that would have been considered unthinkable (and market crippling) just two months ago. Nomura says that the FOMC will hike the fed funds rate by 75-basis points in June and July after a 50-basis point rise in M
At the Ides of March, inflation is pervasive. Today rumors are swirling that Tom Brady ended his retirement because of not being able to afford to retire given the price of gasoline (more in Capital Markets section below), and I head to the home of Holiday Inn: Memphis, Tennessee. (Yes, the title of the song is a little misleading; it spot-on focuses on Tennessee.) Millions in China have re-entered COVID lockdown, once again impacting the supply chain. Russia continues to batter Ukraine, with its terrible loss of human life, impacting the worldwide price of oil and other commodities. We’re watching it all happen in real time, through the use of technology. In this country, Census Bureau construction surveys (brought to you since 1959) are being upgraded with satellite images to provide instant updates on projects at every stage of construction from start to finish down to the county and metro level for the first time. The changes will modernize nearly every aspect of the con