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This morning I head from Chicago to Orlando along with 74 million others (yearly). More fun with numbers: Although the MBA thinks we’ll fund about $1.7 trillion in 2023, weekly applications continue to reflect a declining market so let’s use $1.5 trillion to make the numbers easier. That averages out to $6 billion per business day of production. The Fed is looking to offload $13 billion in MBS from bank seizures. To keep things in perspective, that is only two days’ worth of production, certainly not enough to “swamp the boat.” Perspective is good, and here’s another example. Higher and volatile interest rates, uncertainty about property values, and stresses in some property markets have increased pressure on some loans and properties. Accordingly, MBA reported that commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquencies increased in the second quarter of 2023. Even with the uptick in delinquency rates, they remain at the lower end of historical rang ....
“The world is going to come to an end tonight at midnight. Tune in tomorrow to see if it did!” Sensationalist headlines or bad predictions are tiresome at best, misinformation at worst. There is actual news, however. For example, thank you to the Knowledge Coop’s Ken Perry who sent along the latest in the Matter of ICE and Black Knight. LOs and underwriters know that the Supreme Court overturned the Biden administration’s student-debt forgiveness plan which would have wiped off $430B in loans from the government's books, and people who worked hard to pay off their debt cheered. Although there are already some alternatives that are in the making, this carries huge implications for inflation, consumer discretionary spending, and the distribution of wealth in the U.S. In other news, the latest update on inflation in the U.S. is this week with June’s Consumer Price Index report. Economists forecast headline inflation to fall to 3.0 percent from 4. ....
If I had a dollar for every time someone called me a boring nerd, I'd have a mean daily income of $5.64 with a standard deviation of $1.25. Turning “boring” into “interesting” is something to be proud of. How about a hand-held miniature chainsaw or a shopping cart with a magnifying glass attached for reading labels? For loan originators, new and old, who think creativity has vanished from residential lending, maybe they should focus on the basics. This eBook has been recommended to me: “The Ultimate Borrower Communications Strategy for Mortgage Lenders.” I recently received this note from a successful loan officer. “Rob, my commissions in 2020 and 2021 were over $500k each year. In 2022 they dropped about 50 percent to about $250k. 2023 promises to be even lower, and I’ll be lucky to make $200k. Are you seeing this everywhere?” Yes, I am. But keep things in perspective. In the U.S., and certainly in the world, $200k ....
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