kennedy/nixon. i don t know if we will see element of that, but you will see way over the 80 million four years ago for clinton and trump. the interest is ginormous. jonathan: it is a spectacle. it is golden tv. does it have consequences? that is the question. monmouth university come out with a pole that said just 3% they are very likely to hear something that will impact their eventual vote choice. we will all be watching. will it have consequences? tom: let to get the theater out of the way right now. this is very important. this is case western reserve university, one of our great science and engineering institutions, and the richest , secretary 1800s hayes to roosevelt. this is the history of dow chemical as well. and in the 20th century, it is a city that has been flat on its back for a decade for decades. joe biden if can speak to these people, and president trump as well. jonathan: in d.c., there is still something to talk about away from cleveland. apparently there
fed kicking off its meeting today. for more on what investors are watching, sarah hunt is here from alpine woods capital. what could the fed due tomorrow that would most upset the markets? give: i think they did not a lot of detail about how they were going to make sure when it was time for them to change their inflation standpoint, when was too much over. if they narrow the window and say we are looking for a tiny bit of - on the inflation side. i think they are expecting inflation to run hotter if they get there for a longer time. and if they do something to narrow that window, that would make people more nervous. newsbut in terms of the flow, have we already had it? central banks have been dominant this year. it seems to me as if politics is beginning to take over as the key narrative, in london with brexit, and we ve got all kinds of trouble in the mediterranean, we have got tension with china, and of course we have the u.s. election coming up. so does this narrative now
euro-yen shows you the dynamic away from the dollar, translated. it is all about the weaker dollar across the board when i look in yields, i really look at the inflation-adjusted yield as a -0.92. 2012.reaches the jonathan: $2 trillion and 99 days. a $2 trillion spread between democrats and republicans, and 99 days until the election. you have to believe the president steps forward and says it needs to be bigger. tom: no question about it. the president just reads the riot act to his republicans about losing the house, losing the senate, losing the presidency, and getting out. i don t think it is $1.5 trillion where we are heading with mr. trump. what i would focus on in a week of technology earnings is that equities are so resilient here compared to what else you and i see on the bloomberg terminal. jonathan: a massive week ahead. let s get to the morning brief. a fed decision coming up later this week. tech earnings in the mix. latere get u.s. gdp data in the week. here s t
paul: our top stories this wednesday. asia civic stocks are set for heavy declines after president pushes terror threat items down. china confirms talks in washington, but officials also say retaliatory measures are being prepared against u.s. goods, and lyft sees a brighter future as performance beats expectations, but there is worry about ballooning losses. shery: we have breaking news out of south korea, the current account balance, the surplus at surpluslion, the larger 4han previous months, also $8. million much higher than the previous month in february. of course, we had seen exports take a hit in south korea despite the fact that exports fell for five consecutive sessions or five consecutive months. we are now seeing the surplus in the trade, in the current account balance coming in higher than the previous month of march billion. let s get you a quick check of markets closing. downside pressure across the board in the u.s. with all 30 stocks on the dow falling, and w
growth is good, the consumer strong. you don t see enough indicators of weakness. expectations. we are just at a good point for sort of pausing. let s look at the lay of the land. i m not worried about inflation getting out of hand. the main thing about the shutdown, if we re going to be flying airplanes without instruments because we don t get the data as much, that could be a real concern. et al. think so. that it is a good way to give an excuse if something goes wrong but i think it s actually affecting the economy. i think the momentum doesn t change suddenly. recession probability is very low. jonathan: a full house around the table in new york joining me. tiff, kathy jones, and eric stein. great to have you with me. another interesting week. kathy, the mood music has improved and the economic agency and the story around china is improving as well. not the data, but the trade story. is it conceivable we can have a deal where the united states roles back t