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How do you predict the future? Ask Samotsvety.

What the Samotsvety group can teach us about predicting the future. ....

Republic Of China , Taiwan General , City Of , United Kingdom , Hong Kong , Israel General , New York , United States , Viktor Orban , Henry Kissinger , Dan Gardner , Barbara Mellers , Greg Justice , Jason Matheny , Scott Alexander , Philip Tetlock , Molly Hickman , Chinmay Ingalagavi , Eli Lifland , Peter Scoblic , Elisa Murillo , Misha Yagudin , University Of Maryland , Oxford Future Of Humanity Institute , University Of Chicago , Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity ,

Analyzing the Historical Rate of Catastrophes

To communicate risks, we often turn to stories. Nuclear weapons conjure stories of mutually assured destruction, briefcases with red buttons, and nuclear winter. Climate change conjures stories of extreme weather, cities overtaken by rising sea levels, and crop failures. Pandemics require little imagination after COVID, but were previously the subject ....

United States , Daniel Kokotajlo , Louise Verkin , Tamay Berisoglu , Koch Barnosky , Eli Lifland , Dhruv Madeka , Historical Base Rate , Human Population , Great Chinese Famine , Korean War , Pax Americana , Black Death , Little Ice Age , Little Ice , Taiping Rebellion , Late Quaternary Extinctions , Holocene Extinctions , Late Quaternary Extinction , North America , Holocene Extinction , Quaternary Extinctions , What Are Typical Causes , Modern Catastrophes , Sham Kakade , Dean Foster ,