in our part of the world, cattle outnumber people six to one. reporter: okay. got it. yeah, so you could say we re rural. reporter: it s an unlikely place to find an outspoken republican advocate for ied ho s november ballot initiative to expand medicaid. that s what this rancher became when he says his son s health care premiums jumped to $33,000 a year when he fell into the so-called coverage gap. reporter: that s outrageous. that s what happens when you end up in the gap. reporter: too much money to qualify for medicaid or for subsidies. idaho, utah and nebraska will decide on ballot measures to close the gap by raising the eligibility level for medicaid and expanding who can apply. montanans will vote to keep, potentially providing health care to hundreds of thousands of people who can t afford it now. on election day voters in these
are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that s based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it s actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won t know the answer to yet. so that is oop why it s important to not just look at who is up plus 2 or what does the model say about this, but what are the issues that are driving voters? what are they thinking about? what calculations are they making? enthusiasm is one metric, but an enthusiastic voter s vote counts the same as someone who reluctantly goes the day before
and we can take them at their word. we can use other information. there is certainly internal polls and campaign polls that are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that s based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it s actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won t know the answer to yet. so that is oop why it s important to not just look at who is up plus 2 or what does the model say about this, but what are the issues that are driving voters? what are they thinking about? what calculations are they making? enthusiasm is one metric, but
votes. we re trying to find out exactly which county, which big county came in here because we saw that lead for hillary clinton. one thing is poke county here, sort of in the middle of the state. you can see trump now with a narrow hang on. there you go, trump right now, that s a little better than mitt romney did four years ago, but really the story looking at these returns in florida, the story seems to be almost a rerun of the 2012 election. a lot of these counties look an awful lot like they did in obama versus romney. steve, can we go back to the statewide in florida just a second. heading into today, we knew that three-quarters of the 2012 vote basically had already been cast in terms of the early vote. so looking to fill in from today s election day voters is going to be somewhere in the order of a quarter of the vote if they vote in the same proportion as they did in 2012. with 88% of the vote that we ve got in and we ve got trump leading by 1 percentage point.
the hillary coalition is in tact and ready to go. that s what we ve been focused throughout. you heard canckelly ann conw say they ve got you guys on the run. michigan and pennsylvania. those are the firewall for secretary clinton. how confident are you that you will hold turf there? because of the upset in the primary to bernie sanders. we feel fantastic and as you re seeing, a lot of great surrogates there. we re going to keep doing everything we can on doors but we know that as we get into these final days, timing really matters, and michigan is one of those places that does do it the old fashioned way and a lot of election day voters. you ve seen in our schedule and our surrogate schedules that we ve got to get out to michigan in these final days. michigan, pennsylvania, new hampshire. we ll be there, we ll earn every vote and keep working hard. i want to get your take on some of what we have seen in early voting. record numbers of latinos in