are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that s based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it s actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won t know the answer to yet. so that is oop why it s important to not just look at who is up plus 2 or what does the model say about this, but what are the issues that are driving voters? what are they thinking about? what calculations are they making? enthusiasm is one metric, but an enthusiastic voter s vote counts the same as someone who reluctantly goes the day before
and we can take them at their word. we can use other information. there is certainly internal polls and campaign polls that are different than some of the national public polls, that look at turnout scores and turnout modelling. but that s based on past voter propensity. you talk these estimates into account and look at the different range of turnout scenarios to see what the range of outcomes will look like. but and then we have now early voting which in some states is starting to look democratic, and some states it s actually a little more republican. is that a signer where things end up? or is that just election day voters who are just voting early as opposed to election day. these are all questions we won t know the answer to yet. so that is oop why it s important to not just look at who is up plus 2 or what does the model say about this, but what are the issues that are driving voters? what are they thinking about? what calculations are they making? enthusiasm is one metric, but
the obama number sticks right at 48. could the president slip down to the 44s rather than 48? is he that close to trouble? we haven t seen that sign yet. the president has, at the national level and the state level, and the state numbers are just trying to take on some relevance. it s wet cement but the national numbers have not been 44, 42, 43 for the president in a long while, not since august. but here s what we think about florida, ohio and virginia. republicans and the republican brand vastly underperformed in all three of those states by 4% aj points in ohio, 4.3 in virginia and 3.2 in florida. if republicans do better than half, get half of that back, okay, in their turnout modelling, then romney is in all three of those states very, very competitively. but they have to gain back at least half the vote they gave up from 2004 to 2008, and if they