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Reflation Trade Gets Shot in the Arm With Rate Hikes in Focus Bloomberg 2/22/2021 Vivien Lou Chen and William Shaw (Bloomberg) A wave of reflation bets sweeping across global markets is prompting traders to brace for an end to the low interest-rate regime earlier than expected. The ramp-up in inflation expectations intensified a selloff in Treasuries sending the gap between the 5- and 30-year yields to the widest since October 2014 and bringing forward expectations for U.S. rate hikes to as early as mid-2023. That’s reverberating across assets from credit to emerging markets, and emboldening commodity bulls who are betting on a super-cycle to drive a surge in prices including for copper. ....
Treasury Curve Steepens to February 2016 Levels Before Sales Bloomberg 2/4/2021 Vivien Lou Chen (Bloomberg) A widely watched segment of the Treasury yield curve has reached its steepest level in almost five years as expectations for more stimulus overshadowed the government’s decision to leave auction sizes for long-maturity debt unchanged. The gap between 5- and 30-year yields touched 147 basis points, the widest level since February 2016. The driving force was a sell-off in long-dated debt, which continued even after the Treasury announced Wednesday that there would be no increase in sales of notes and bonds at next week’s quarterly refunding sales. The decision was in line with Wall Street forecasts, though a minority had seen another round of increases. ....
Bond Record, Budget Pain, Iran and Biden: Mideast Risks in 2021 Bloomberg 12/22/2020 Netty Ismail (Bloomberg) Gulf Arab nations approach 2021 with their currency pegs steadied, oil prices clawing back ground, and bond investors keen for the region’s high-rated, high-yielding names. But the pain from Covid-19 and the slump in crude hasn’t gone, and S&P Global Ratings predicts only a “modest recovery” in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council through 2023, after a contraction of about 6% this year. And while the region’s markets are used to geopolitical ructions, investors are waiting to see how Joe Biden’s presidency might tilt the picture, according to Tarek Fadlallah, the Dubai-based chief executive officer of the Middle East unit of Nomura Asset Management. ....