We can see the light at the end of the tunnel. We see the kasim terrific vaccine news from the highly promotional mo dederna. Nasdaq advancing. 95 . Despite the case numbers from florida, texas, california, arizona, we might be able to go back to normal sooner than we thought thanks to moderna or frankly, the dozens of Companies Working on a vaccine including astrazenika. The vaccines, thats the light at the end of the tunnel it led to ludicrously bullish action cruise lines, airlines, restaurants, the retailers, the Covid Vaccine gain if everything goes perfect, it will be months for the vaccine is ready, maybe years. You got to finish studying before you inoculate they havent faced trials. They need to make sure it works and no serious side effects when presented on mass, not just this little group and manufacture hundreds of millions of doses, in the interim, there is only one serious fairly foolproof method to bridge us to a successful vaccine and that is stimulus from the federal
Major amples we saw a surge in cases for example, in other parts of the country that had not been as hard hit jim, i can go through a list of things this morning that perhaps would give investors pause in a different environment, whether it be beijing, and the recent closure of schools there as they deal with a surge in cases it is only 137 but nonetheless. Flights also there we will get the update from beijing. Layoffs at the likes of at t or hilton quest giving us gooit guidance that still speaks to the weakness of that business. Yet here we are with potentially another rally in store a half hour from now. David, all of those things you just mentioned were things that maybe we expected to happen im looking at 25 pieces of research that i have sent to you in synopsis, the vast majority of them are raising price targets. Why . Because the targets were slashed before we knew that the Federal Reserve was going to back stop all of these companies so the Federal Reserve is saying if you ar
Dow surging 461 points, s p gaining 1. 21 , nasdaq advancing 1. 31 . The s p up for 2020 now including a 47. 5 gain from the march lows im repeating that, a 47. 5 gain from the march lows. All of the airlines, arent that he mazing . They wont quit. Some goes for the cruise lines, the hotels earnings who needs earnings bother me later. The casinos are on fire. Who can resist now that theyre open again oils warring. The price of crude up 75 from that bizarre bargain, take some will you, this is a vshaped recovery like this, and then theres boeing, up more than 150 from its lows in march. 12 move today the biggest winner of the dow and best month ever can you imagine, humor me for a second, could you imagine if they got some orders it all makes sense even if this run all the recovery stocks are low, so theyre off the highs, and thats why its easy to see why theyre so irresistible since we have no faces here. Buy, buy, buy and any earnings can spoil the party but there are none that said,
Timing, the pace, the safety of this economic reopening. Right i think that at this point, we know that the v is off the table. The struggle here is whether we have a ushaped recovery or whether we dont have a recovery and i keep coming back to there are two things that can happen you get a vaccine, and youll have a vee you dont get a vaccine and youll have an l and i think on days like today when you see the unemployed numbers, you say to yourself, without a vaccine, this is going to be a very, very long slog, just like what chairman powell said yesterday chairman powell is giving you the straight stuff and this number should not be a surprise to people who listened to him yesterday when you think about a vaccine this week, jim, we have heard promising comments from pfizer and j j today, the novartis ceo saying its likely a second half 2021 story. What do we believe i think its second half 2021 if at all. Its a very, very difficult virus. But you know, that may just mean when you look
And you told your club members this morning were done selling for now. You raised the cash for when or if the market starts to revert to its old ways. Weve been selling into this strength and have to set up for another leg down why . Were about to go into earnings. Mcdonalds this morning reported some bad numbers and withdrew forecasts. We may see more of those once april 14th comes around. Its earnings season when we come back from the holiday, i think well have earnings cut earnings cut. I donennt think this is didnt where do we think earnings are trending, with so many guidance pulls, we got more out of levi last night how do we know what a reasonable model for this years models are . Both pinterest and levis rallied, why they said we cant forecast, but we have good strength in the core business. Levis talks about theyre an iconic brand and they can do well i cant hang my has the on that. Those stocks are down big. I would tell you that there are companies that will have better numb