The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum predicts above-normal rainfall in most parts of south Asia during the 2024 southwest monsoon season, with India expected to experience below-normal rainfall. The forecast is based on favorable La Nina conditions, which are expected to set in by August-September. Moderate El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, with neutral conditions expected in the first half of the season. La Nina conditions, the antithesis of El Nino, are the dominant factor in the likelihood of above-normal rainfall.
After a drier-than-usual December and January, northwest India is expected to see normal to above-normal rainfall in February, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The IMD predicts above-normal rainfall for northwest India, while northeast and central India can expect normal to above-normal rainfall. Find out more about the weather forecast for February in India.