captioning funded by cbs good thursday morning, everyone. i'm jeff glor. >> are you sure about that? >> my name or the day? >> i don't know. >> i get confused about both at times ist it times. >> well, it is the holiday. good morning. i'm debbye turner bell. >> welcome, by the way. new polls show significant changes in the republican presidential race in iowa. >> it's good news for mitt romney and bad news for newt gingrich. chief political correspondent jan crawford is in cedar rapids with the new lineup and a surprise for michele bachmann too. good morning, jan. >> reporter: good morning. the latest iowa has more movement. mitt romney at the top followed by ron paul and then a name we haven't heard lately, rick santorum. the biggest surprise of the day came from the camp of michele bachmann. the sometimes bitter battle for iowa took a slightly unexpected turn monday when state senator kent sorenson joined ron paul's team. >> in twelve when i was running the for state senate, congressman paul came and did three separate events for me. i felt like he was by my side and hi a tough race and now it's my duty to be by his side. >> reporter: but bachmann fired back. >> kent sorenson personally told me he was offered a large sum of money to go to work for the ron paul campaign. >> reporter: paul finds himself in a tough three way battle with mitt romney and a surging santorum. paul, a libertarian with a small government message, said his rival are no different than president obama. >> you pick another status quo president and presidential candidate, nothing is going to change. >> reporter: santorum said he knew his time in iowa would come. >> we had the right message, we had the bold plans and consistent track record. >> reporter: santorum has run a traditional political campaign and spending almost all of his time in iowa and hitting all 99 counties. he appeals to the social conservatives. but the new front-runner is the man who has kept expectations low in iowa, mitt romney was greeted by big crowds of voters who like his business experience and think he is their best hope of beating barack obama. >> i've got no predictions for exactly where we will end up in the tally, but i feel like it's going to be a good, strong showing. >> reporter: many voters here worry the one time front-runner newt gingrich can't win because he has too much baggage to five over obama. which is why he may be down in this latest iowa poll. gingrich is feeling the heat after joking to fail to get on the ballot in his home state of virginia by mitt romney. >> more like lucille ball at the chocolate factory. >> i'd love to have him say that to my face. >> reporter: yesterday, gingrich was joking himself as he made chocolate in a campaign shop. >> governor romney had a huge line saying i resembled lucille ball in a chocolate fap factory and here i am in a chocolate factory. >> reporter: i asked romney about that yesterday afternoon. and he said, listen. if you can't handle the heat now from the republicans, how are you going to handle it when president obama throws everything your way? >> that is an interesting point, jan. even romney has been modest about his expectations in iowa. how do you account for gingrich's slide in the state? >> reporter: you know, it is remarkable to see what has happened in these polls in the last month. they have absolutely flipped places. gingrich has plummeted 20 points and everyone where i go the voters are saying the same thing, they worry he can't beat barack obama of his past, because of his baggage, as they say. i heard that word baggage over and over and over. i talked to voters who said we were going to be for newt, we like newt, he's smart, but obama is going to kill him and that is why we are going to back romney. they think he is a electable and think think he can beat barack obama and they don't wosrry abot his background that comes out. nothing came out four years ago so why they are going to romney and keeping their eye on the prize as one voter told me, that is taking back the white house from barack obama. >> jan crawford in cedar falls, thank you. not everyone is focus on iowa. one week after the caucuses is the important new hampshire primary and where republican candidate and former utah governor jon huntsman is campaigning. he joins us from manchester this morning. governor, good morning. >> hi, jeff. great to be with you. >> glad you could be here. we just heard jan talk about the elect ability issue. is mitt romney to the only electable candidates? >> no, you have other candidates. in iowa, they pick corn in iowa and pick presidents here in new hampshire. this is a state where they want to know your heart and soul and want to know what is in your head and vision for america. when it comes down to there are two key issues i think are going to drive this election and mitt romney is not the one who is going to be able to drive those home. they are both deficits, one is an economic deficit and take someone who can approach debt and spending and who can fire the engines of growth much like i did as governor of the state of utah but the second deficit is one of a different kind, it's a trust deficit. people no longer have trust toward their institutions of power in this country. people don't trust congress any more. everybody knows that congress needs term limits. everybody knows that we need to shut the resolving door in congress that allows members of congress to file on through to become lobbyists. everybody knows on wall street where there is no trust either that we have got to deal with banks that are too big to fail and i'm here to tell you that we need a president who is going to be as aggressive on the trust side in dealing with that deficit as on the economic side. >> governor, we see rick santorum surging in iowa where he concentrated almost exclusively. we see you're concentrating almost exclusively in new hampshire. are you looking to get the same sort of thing? >> i used to be the margin of error candidate. last week, we were in the teens in three different polls and overtook ron paul for number three position in the state. today, we will celebrate public event number 130. we're putting out the shoe ledger and doing it the old fashioned way and handshake by handshake. people want to know who you are and what is inside and what your vision is for this great country. and that's got to be done at the ground level. >> governor, what do you -- >> burning it. >> what do you consider a win in new hampshire? i know you say it's the beat market expectations. the latest poll puts you at 10. you get an 11 in new hampshire, do you consider that a win? >> we have been in the mid teens here well. market expectations were low as we started this journey. we were at zero, the underdog. by the end of our journey here, the market expectations will be higher and we have to exceed those market expectations whatever they might be. every town hall meeting we are doing like last night they are bigger and bigger with more people turning out and we are connecting with our message and i have every confidence that as always, new hampshire is going to up-end conventional wisdom. people think they know how the elections are going to turn out and then comes the vote out of new hampshire and up-ends conventional wisdom and that is going to term lex ability and who can go on to beat barack obama. the rap on me has always been we know he can win the general election but can he win the primary phase of this election circle and we will start doing that here in new hampshire. >> governor, if you had to do anything differently in your campaign, what would it have been? >> i'll let the historians deal with that. you can only look forward and what lies ahead. we are gaining ground and moving up as opposed to moving down. that's the good news coming out of our campaign. in terms of what goes right and wrong like any start-up organization, you'll have to let history and historians deal with that. >> quickly, governor, north korea which is in transition now as you know. you spent a lot of time in china and well aware of what happens in that area of the world. what do you make of it? >> i say not a very good outcome coming out of north korea. looks like kim jong-un is successful his power and you have the most reckless brutal dictatorship in the world today. a less outcome would be implosion of north korea as a nation state and in which cases millions of people flee into china and then loose nuclear weapons, probably a half dozen and a huge international concern. as for the united states, northeast asia is probably 25% of the world's gdp when you got a reckless regime like north korea it impacts trade and flow of commerce and it impacts our economic relationship with south korea, japan, taiwan, parts of china and parts of russia. i say we have an economic interest at stake and we must do whatever we can to preserve stability. that is koocoordinating are sou korea and japan and in deep talks with russia and china to ensure stability on the peninsula and to make sure if there is some implosion of the nation state of north korea that people have an eye on those nuclear weapons. >> governor jon huntsman, always a good conversation and we appreciate your time, sir. thank you. >> thank you, jeff. move to the latest on europe's debt crisis. >> this morning, in italy signs things are getting better in the euro zone as allen pizzey reports. >> reporter: looking very much the contented techno, the prime minister told that a growth package was ready for italy but warned what he called the turbulent phase wasn't over yet and a lot of work remained to be done in spite of a bond auction of government debt having gone well. the yield under 7%. a sign that the markets are banking on a less than miserable new year for the ailing euro zone. the barometer of italy's credit worthiness were half to under 3%. >> the auction went through that important 7 prps figure. remember, that is the key level that was deemed when portugal and greece and the other struggling nations after they went through that 10% and found it hard to borrow from the main market. >> reporter: the replacement of sill ve yo berlusconi with a calm monty may have calmed the markets. tax increases and severe pension reforms haven't gone well with trade unions and some opposition parties here and italy's growth rate is expected to contract by 0.4% next year. with a threat of a full-blown recession. opinion on the streets of rome is divided. there are all signs for incumbent disaster this man says. and next year will be a lot worse. but others see some hope. if we manage to hold on and to make everybody pay, this man says, maybe we will make it. the tenth anniversary of the euro is only a few days away. and it's looking more like a tired old man than a near teenager heading for a growth spurt. allen pizzey, cbs news, rome. here to tell us about what the euro troubles mean for the u.s. is alexis christoforous of cbs "moneywatch." good morning. >> good morning. >> translate some italian here for us, if you would. why should americans be concerned about italy's bonds? >> if this was two years ago we wouldn't be concerned talking about italian bond action but it's very important in this atmosphere. this is a litmus test of investment confidence. italy is the third largest economy in europe and struggling under a mountain of debt and having auction to try to raise badly needed cash. if there is strong demand for this auction it sends a huge investor confidence boost out to the world and says we believe italy is still a good investment and willing to hold on to the bonds and this debt and it drives interest rates in that country lower. which is good news, because it helps to spur economic growth and makes borrowing costs cheaper there for consumers and businesses. >> we learned that the euro fell to an 11-month low against the dollar today. that sounds like bad news for europeans but is that good news for u.s. investors and consumers? >> it depends. if you're traveling to europe any time soon your dollar will go further there because the dollar is now stronger and you can buy more goods in europe. on the flip side multinational companies here in the u.s. that does a lot of business overseas see their exports becoming more expensive. the trickle down effect is if they are going to sell less overseas they may have pull back here and cut jobs and not hire as many people planned as next year. >> ask about this iranian threat to close the strait of hormuz and why a serious effect on oil prices here in america. big deal? >> possibly. we know that this is a speculative market so possibility can drive prices and other arab nations saying we will pump enough oil to make up for the fact that iran may shut down this important route. the fact is oil prices have been good to us lately. we are getting a break at the gas pump. gas prices down 30 cents the past six weeks. the national average now $3.24 a gallon and if we were to see a supply crunch or even the possibility of that, prices could move up, we could see higher heating oil bills as we move further into the winter and higher gas prices. depending how high they go that can bite into a family's budget. >> alexis christoforous, thank you for breaking it down for us. >> sure. here is whit johnson at the news desk with a check of the headlines. >> good morning to you. it's reported that justice department is considering the first criminal charges in the gulf oil spill disaster. the "wall street journal" reports the charges would be brought against u.s.-based engineers for bp. prosecutors say bp failed to conduct error pressure tests on one part of the oil rig. conviction would carry a fine and ten-years in prison. the spill killed 11 workers. $11 billion worth of weapons and training intended to help iraq rebuild its military and defend its borders and despite concerns the iraqi government could create a one-party state and align itself with iran. 35 people killed in turkey by turkish war planes near the iraqi border. local officials say only civilians were killed. new attacks in afghanistan this morning. two members of the french foreign legion shot dead by a soldier in the afghan national army. earlier ten afghan police officers were killed by roadside bond in helmand province. tens of thousands of people packed a square in north korea in honor of dictator kim jong-il. his son and successor kim jong-un was called the predecessor. a whole day will disappear at is a msamoa. they want to align their calendar with trading partners and the line is being moved and tomorrow will be eliminated. america samoa will remain east of the line and its calendar still ahead this morning, we have been watching these spectacular pictures. >> so amazing. >> great whales making a big splash off southern california and returning in record numbers right now. >> we will take you there for some amazing whale watching. you don't want to miss this on "the early show" on cbs. it feels totally different from a regular toothpaste. new pronamel iso-active is a toothpaste in a can. the gel transforms into a foam and surrounds your teeth. pronamel iso-active helps protect against the effects of acid erosion. absolutely. thank you so much. no problem. man: do your simple return with the turbotax federal free edition, and now get our free, one-on-one, expert tax advice, live by phone or chat. get the federal free edition, at turbotax.com. hershey's drops. a lot of hershey's happiness in little drops of milk chocolate. and cookies n creme. pure hershey's. is this your normal? 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