crossed paths with the world's largest animal -- a blue whale. what is it like to be up close and personal with this large creature? we'll find out when we talk to him, this real-life jonah. today, saturday, august 13, 2011. good morning, everyone, welcome to "today" on a saturday. i'm lester holt. >> and i'm amy robach. and i have to say blue whales apparently aren't a threat when they're in the water with you. but that would, i think, provide little comfort for me if i were that guy staring one in the face. >> it's not going to attack you, but it's a big creature. to get up close and perhaps to be hit as it's flipping through the ocean -- this is incredible video. was it a week ago, two weeks ago, we had the guy who jumped on a shark? let the animals alone, folks. >> how about just stay in the boat? >> stay in the boat. incredible picture. we'll find out how this came about later. also, here we go, 14 months until the presidential election, but the gloves are off in this first test of the 2012 season. >> that's right. today is the ames straw poll. nine republicans are on the ballot, and winning is often defined as doing better than people thought you would. what can we expect? we'll find out when we head live to iowa in a few minutes. then we'll get the latest on a missing american tourist. the fbi is conducting interviews on the island of aruba, and there are reports that investigators are searching an old abandoned mine for 35-year-old robin gardner. we're live on aruba with the latest. then a real-live 12-year-old hero. she fought a boy her own age struggling to stay afloat in the surf. she tried to swim and bring him to safety. she lost him to a rogue wave. he was pulled from the water. doctors say her efforts helped save his life. coming up, we'll meet this pint-sized hero live. >> doctors first gave the family no hope. he's spoken -- he has a long way to go, but remarkable story. let's start with the ames straw poll. after all the talk, all the debates and rhetoric, a town of about 52,000 people in the middle of the country is the first test of the 2012 presidential season. nbc's kelly o'donnell is live in ames, iowa, with more for us. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. this is where the big speeches happen today. outside there will be live entertainment, the smell of fried food in the air. that is how iowans bring the ames straw poll to life. the real prize for gop contenders today is momentum, attention, new leverage for fundraising. and while not all of the names are on the ballot, they all have something to win or lose. under the iowa sun and on top of the hottest place in politics -- >> iowans are going to send the signal this is where barack obama got his start. this is where he's going to come to his end in iowa! [ applause ] >> reporter: michele bachmann making the final push before today's straw poll. pumped up crowds -- [ cheers ] >> reporter: tailgate rallies, and all the deep-fried delicacies that go down easy at the fair. >> the food, definitely. >> we tried the -- >> the fried butter. >> it was so good. >> reporter: republican contenders like tim pawlenty have poured huge campaign money into getting supporters here. paying for buses and the $30 ticket needed to attend and cast a straw vote. a pivotal test of any candidate's organization and energy. >> going to have a lot to say about who the candidates are who are going to be going forward as president of the united states. >> reporter: those relying on a less expensive grassroots game plan get the same soapbox to make their pitch. businessman herman cain. >> i didn't get the memo that we were supposed to fail. i didn't get the memo that america can't fix its problems. >> reporter: former house speaker newt gingrich. >> as far as i'm concerned, i want to be a citizen this summer helping my country get back to work. helping my country solve its problems. we've got plenty of time to run for president later. >> reporter: today's results can be make or break. even though the outcome carries no official weight, it is influential. for candidates needing buzz, donors, and a case for staying in the race. and the undeclared and undecided sarah palin braved cameras and crowds here. palin said to expect whether she's in or out by the end of november. >> i want to be fair to supporters and not keep them hanging on in perpetuity. it's fair to them to give them an answer here in short order so that they can jump on board with someone else and/or, you know, decide for themselves what they want to do. >> reporter: not here and not actually competing in the straw poll -- mitt romney back in new hampshire -- was pressed on his much-talked about comment that corporations are people. >> it's astonishing to me that the obama folks would try and argue that businesses aren't people. what do they think they are? little men from mars? it's -- businesses are comprised of people. >> reporter: so mitt romney's name is not on the ballot, but he may get write-in votes. that will be a measure of his candidacy in iowa. that may also be true to some extent for rick perry. the texas governor who is making some folks in iowa unhappy that he's using today to make his announcement to get into the race while in south carolina. lester? >> kelly o'donnell, thanks. the ames straw poll has multiple overlapping questions -- who could come out a winner, who could pack it in at the end of the day. and what about the candidates not on the ballot but on the ground in ames? for answer we turn to nbc news political director chuck todd. good morning. good to see you. >> good morning, lester. >> before i get you to handicap this, remind us again what this straw poll is. my understanding, this is a test of their orgz -- their organizations as much as the candidates themselves. >> reporter: official at the's a republican party fundraiser. they've been doing it since the 1979. always in the summer before the caucuses. what it's turned into is the campaigns try to see how many they k bring to ames. in 1999, george w. bush and steve forbes spent millions at this thing, to something around $-- 10,000 to 15,000 is what many of the field experts expect here. what does that mean? means about 3,000, 3,500 votes could win this thing. the goal is to identify every single one. campaigns today -- no, probably the exact number of people that will be here because they've bought the tickets and personally been handing them out. >> then i know winning here is relative. that if you're in the top three, you're likely in good shape. who are likely to be the top three? >> reporter: the thinking is that it's ron paul, michele bachmann, and tim pawlenty in some order. they've poured the most resources into this event. they are buying buses. pawlenty and bachmann have bought tv advertising throughout the state to get folks here. if one of those three weren't in the top three, that would be a surprise. the question is the order. interestingly enough, when you talk to unaffiliated republicans out here, they keep saying that this ron paul unlike four years ago has a much deeper organization here than many people would have expected even two months ago. >> let me ask you, at the beginning of the program we laid out the possibility that this could end campaigns. historically, does the straw poll end the weaker candidates? does it begin to whittle the field even this far out from the election? >> reporter: it actually really does. in fact, it's almost taken the place of what the iowa caucuses used to be. the caucuses themselves would win the field. in 1999 it was basically -- i've called it the glen gary/glen ross rule. first place and second place you get to go on. third place, even though that sounds good, the third-place candidacies the last two times have ended up quitting the campaign within a couple of weeks. 1999, that was libelizabeth dol. after lamar alexander didn't make it a couple week after the straw poll. then sam brownback was in third, romney won it. huckabee was second, brownback was third. but he couldn't go on rea. really when there is a day when candidates didn't announce like today, second place is pretty good. i don't know if the second place matters as much because of the rick perry announcement. >> talk about the rick perry announcement and his timing. is it smart timing? we're talking about him obviously and he's not a candidate in the straw poll. what's his thinking here? >> it's absolutely smart timing. they've been plotting this for six weeks, the perry folks, putting this campaign together. what better way to diminish a little bit the rest of the field? mitt romney decided he wasn't going to put resources into the straw poll today. already there was one major candidate not here. perry by announcing today guarantees that tomorrow's front pages at best a split photograph. a split headline. the winner of iowa and rick perry announcing. fair or unfair, if it's ron paul that wins this straw poll it could get diminished even more since many republicans don't believe he could win the nomination. >> chuck todd, thank you very much. >> you got it. >> amy? thank you. now to the wild week on wall street. the week marked the biggest roller coaster of downs and ups since the near global collapse three years ago. what's causing all the market turmoil, and how will this affect the consumer? here to break it down is cnbc's amanda drury. good morning. so the market dramatically fluctuated all week long. why? >> i think the market is seeking answers to many questions. for example, is the u.s. economy backsliding? what is washington doing? is the fed doing something to help stimulate the economy, and what does the downgrade mean? we have to remember there was a high level of fear and uncertainty in the market that always causes irrational moves. at the end of the day, if you had done nothing, not bought, not sold, net-net you would only be slightly down at the end of the week. there are wild swing up and down. >> is this the new norm signal are we going to bottom out, more to come? >> that's the million-dollar question, isn't it? we're all hoping that the worst is over. but i would say that many people who speak to us on cnbc say that we could still see volatile and bumpy markets as the economy is trying to get its recovery back on track. as we're trying to work out what is happening in europe. people will have to remember it's not just what's happening in the united states. what is happening in europe and their debt problems has a big influence on our markets, as well. >> how does this translate in terms of the impact on the everyday, average consumer? will we see changes at the grocery store? at the gas pump? >> that's an excellent question, and i think it is the one silver lining that we can point to. because of the market turmoil, because of the problems we're having in the economy at the moment, it's been pushing don crude prices. that in turn has been helping gasoline prices at the pump come down, as well. for example, last week i think the national average was at 3.70 per gallon. we've come down to $3.62. you might say that's not much, but if it keeps coming down on the trajectory, at the end of august we could get to $3.50 or lower if it continues at the same trajeory. >> consumer confidence number hit the lowest level since 1980. what are consumers looking for to regain confidence in the economy? >> well, that consumer confidence number needs to be put in context. it was giving a snapshot of how consumer wes were feeling in ea august. think of the things we were contending with, the problems with the debt ceiling, turmoil in the market. it's not a huge surprise that we got that number. i think consumers really want to see direction coming out of washington. they want to see clear leadership, that things are in control and that they're going to at the end of the day have a better economy, more jobs. >> all right, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> you're welcome. time for a check of the morning's other top news stories. for that we turn to chris jansing at the newsdesk. good morning, everyone. we begin in pakistan where an american contractor has been kidnapped. nbc's jay gray is live in london with details. good morning. >> reporter: good morning. the state department confirms a u.s. citizen was kidnapped this morning in the eastern city of la hor. an embassy spokesperson tells nbc news the man is in his 60s and works for a private u.s. contractor. pakistani police say the attack was carried out by as many as ten gunmen at around 3:30 in the morning. there are reports the men persuaded security guards to open the gates at the upscale home by telling them they wanted to share some food, an act that is common during the muslim holy month of ramadan. once inside, they apparently overpowered the guards, then forced a driver to knock on a bedroom door. when the american opened the door, the kidnappers grabbed him, loaded him into a car at gunpoint, and sped away. at this point there's no indication of motive, and no group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping. abductions are common in pakistan, though rarely as brazen as this. it aep's even more rare for americans to be kidnapped. there's a travel advisory for u.s. citizens working or traveling in pakistan. chris? >> nbc's jay gray. thank you. those three florida siblings who led police on a nationwide search that ended in colorado may face new charges. a judge friday said that lee grace daugherty and her brothers dylan and ryan may be charged with attempted murder in two colorado counties. they also face charges in georgia and florida. the siblings were caught after being spotted near colorado's san isabelle national forest by two retired officers. an emotional day in an ohio courtroom as serial killer anthony sowell was sentenced to death. the 51-year-old was convicted of murdering 11 women, dumping their bodies near his property. dozens of the victims' relatives addressed the court before the sentence was read. president obama's health care law may be headed to the supreme court. on friday, a federal appeals court in atlanta ruled that the requirement that all americans must purchase health insurance is unconstitutional. that's different from previous federal and some lower court rulings which means the final decision may well rest with the high court. search and rescue crews will be out again today in utah looking for a missing boy scout. 12-year-old jared ruffleetto hiked with his troop but somehow went mittsing yesterday. the good news is that overnight temperatures have been mild, and his mother says she's hopeful he's okay. finally, "todkw today marks 50th anniversary of the construction of the berlin wall. there was a moment of silence for those who tried to flee to west germany. communist east germany began building the wall on august 13, 1961. nearly 100 miles long, the wall divided the city for more than 28 years before it fell in 1989. and that's a look at the news. now back to lester, amy, and bill. >> thank you very much. we welcome mr. bill careins with the first check of the forecast. bill? there are people happy in dallas because it's raining. first time in a month and a half that we have rain from dallas to west texas, out to the abilene area. it has been so long. and the drought is so horrible. this won't end the drought, but this is just a good morning. go outside with the kids and splash in the puddles. the first time you've been able will to do that in a long time. we have an interesting forecast for the eastern half of the country. humidity levels are up, gorgeous weather is exiting. we have rain and thunderstorms in the great lakes from chicago to indianapolis. also the southeast will be dodging the storms. all of that wet weather will head to the eastern seaboard including new england and the mid-atlantic on your sunday. plan accordingly. that's a look a >> good morning. a nice morning this morning. some clouds have moved in, an indication we will see a change in the weather. we'll be in the 80's for highs. today, only 69 degrees for your high. that's your weekend forecast. amy? >> bill, thank you. a church outside atlanta had a noble idea -- free dental care for those who can't afford it. the clinic attracted a crowd of 4,000 people. many of those people waited in line for hours, and many will go back today. nbc's mark potter reports. >> reporter: the line to the clinic stretched around the block with more than 1,000 people already there when the doors first opened at 5:00 a.m. friday. with 200 dentists and 1,300 other volunteers, this free clinic north of atlanta is sponsored by the georgia dental association. caring for those who can't pay. >> they're getting fillings, root canals. extractions. >> reporter: among the chronically poor and their families are some new faces in line. for 15 years before she lost her job as an administrative assistant, karen spears had dental insurance. but now cannot afford care. >> never, never anticipated it. then my mother got sick and had to care for her while in hospice. and just, you know, could not get a job. >> reporter: clinic organizers say they're seeing many jobless people now who could afford private dentist a year ago. >> a lot of our patients from a year ago have lost their jobs and benefits. >> reporter: the demand for the sclng so great that after the first 1,400 patients were admitted on friday, another 1,000 in line were told to come back today. among those told to return is sheilah phillips, who had a 30-year sales career. before losing a job at ibm two years ago. now she struggles. >> it doesn't say anything about me. it says something about the state of our economy. >> reporter: an economy where for many even basic care is now a luxury. for "today," mark potter, nbc news, woodstock, georgia. london is relatively calm after a week of rioting. now as folks pick up the pieces, the people who lived through are t are -- through it are asking why and showing resolve and reaching out to each other in the face of overwhelming tragedy. jim maceda with our story. >> reporter: it was not a week for the proud or patriotic here. >> i don't know why people do this. >> reporter: moments of senseless violence, hatred, and desperation shocked the nation and those beyond. now the cleanup has started, but so has the fight. >> we will do whatever it takes to restore law and order and to rebuild our communities. >> reporter: there's defiance in the streets. vigilante groups, sikhs and turks defending their communities. police raids on alleged rioters have led to at least 1,700 arrests. the courts are in overdrive. fight-back is also in the heart. 89-year-old widower aaron baeber thought he lost everything when a bank broke into his barber shop. >> they took my kettle, my two cups of coffee, sugar, i couldn't believe it. >> reporter: nor could he believe the $40,000 campaigns raised to get the world war ii vet back in business. >> there must be some good people in this world. >> reporter: this student had every reason to hate britain -- mugged, his jaw broken, and robbed by the people who pretended to help him. the video of his ordeal went viral. and britains, total strangers, raised about $30,000 as a gift to him. >> people are very generous, seriously. >> reporter: "new york times" reporter ravi salvia said he's seen a courtesy return. >> the things that caused riots paradoxically may have come back in the aftermath. >> reporter: there are centers for donations and walls for compassion. >> it's about showing that we do love our city. we're proud of our city. we want the world to know that. >> reporter: a nation taking control and believing in itself once again. for "today," jim maceda, nbc news, london. and we can report this morning that the top cop who helped clean up new york as well as boston and los angeles is headed to lond