0 all right it is 1 am on the east coast. i'm ali velshi. this is msnbc special coverage of primary results in five states. arizona, kansas, missouri michigan, and washington state. voters of turned out to the determine their nominees for the mid terms elections to be held in 97 days. the biggest news of the night was in the state of kansas where voters voted to protect the right of abortion. this was the first electoral test for abortion rights since the supreme court overturn roe v. wade. around 60% of kansas voters voted no to removing the right for an abortion in the state constitution. in arizona, watching that closely right now, three races are too early to call for trump endorsed election deniers. mark finchem is leading for the republican state tutored dixon is the projected winner. she will run against the incumbent gretchen whitmer. in missouri, attorney general eric schmidt as won the republican nomination for senate defeating former governor eric greitens. last night, donald trump endorsed a candidate named eric, and wasn't sure who endorsed. and washington state, it's too early to tell for two republicans who are running both of whom voted for whom to impeach donald trump. congressman danny has is leading trump endorsed candidate lauren call. steve kornacki is with us all night. he joins us at the big board. i see once again you are choosing arizona to start with right now. we were talking to vaughn hillyard a few minutes ago. there was cheering in the lake campaign headquarters. tell me why there would be. >> i think this is where they're is the most suspense right now, and think will be stuck in a state of suspense potentially for a few days. what you see here is the karen taylor robson as a lead of eight points here statewide over kari lake. if you were watching an hour ago that was closer to ten points. so what's basically happens in arizona there are three phases to this vote. first, the county's report out, this is what happened in the 11 pm east our. all the votes they receive basically through yesterday. votes cast weeks ago. it was expected that big bucket of votes would be robson's best bucket of votes and will give her some lead and it did. then the question would be the next two buckets of votes. could she withstand what was in them. we are now in the second bucket of votes. we may see these numbers change as we talk. people went and cast ballots in person today. that's expected to be a very strongly pro lake vote and that is what we are seeing. we are seeing these small batches come in in different counties and lake is winning them by 30 40 points margins like that. so the votes coming in the next few hours could draw lake closer. the third bucket which is the giant x-factor, people who dropped off their ballots and the counties collect the ballots and then tomorrow they begin the processing, signature verifications. they will tell us tomorrow how many of those votes there are. it's also expected to be a very pro lake batch of votes. so the key variable as once they count up all the same day votes, how much does this shrink and then how many votes are left? is there enough for her to realistically catch robson? she got a good pad here i think, but it's very much open question whether it's gonna be enough to hold off kari lake. why is this pattern different from other trump back candidates that we're looking at? >> well i think it's interesting, lake down eight points. she could well pull ahead of robson, but she has to do some work here. and we'll look at the other trump backed candidate. blake masters, he's only 34 and a half percent but he's up four points over jim layman. if that same pattern holds, if the trump voters are the ones who are there, then this will grow, and that puts him in a better position. starts from a position of a four-point lead, and of his vote moves in the position that lake does, that will only grow. looking at the secretary of state primary here. finchem the trump backed candidate is already up nine. so that grows that could easily be double digits. he's in the best position i would say of any of those trump backed candidates. but real now real suspense in that gubernatorial race in arizona. we've been saying there had been a lot of suspense in this republican house primary in the third district. pete meijer republican freshman who voted to impeach donald trump. you can see here now that he trails by more than 5000 votes to trump backed challenger donald gibbs. there's a big gap between the mail-in vote in the same day vote. turns out there was a lot of same-day vote left around grand rapids. gibbs took the lion share of it and you see we haven't officially called it but this is a grim situation for meijer. >> tell me again for our viewers who didn't hear earlier of this concept of strategic voting. there were some democrats who were engaged in that, in this race. there were democrats who in a vacuum would rather have peter meijer as their member of congress but thought that gibbs was more defeat-able so supported him for the nomination. that story would be this. michigan changed the way they draw their congressional lines for this now new redistricting district-ing. what it resulted in this district was dramatically changed. i think it's a slightly democratically leaning district. it's definitely a winnable district on paper for democrats. democrats look at these two candidates myers and gibbs, and said it gives us so many we can be. democrats spent big money running sly adds trying to boost gibbs among republican voters trying to get in the nomination because i think they can beat him. the objection that meijer had to that, democrats would gives gibbs is legitimately threatening democracy. why would you spent ascent that might help actually help him put in a position of power if you really believe is direct dramatics retina mobocracy? there's an interesting tension there, be look at close as was. it look at that money that came in and gives gibbs behalf. could make a big difference. >> all right we'll keep watching. thank you steve. you want to wait for a few minutes, i started touching the born and started giving up bad information. >> democrat joining us now david jolly, former member of congress, he's now met msnbc political analyst. also with jonathan alter and msnbc political analyst. david jolly, welcome to the show, what do you make up tonight? you've been watching these results around the country, some things that feel like resounding victories for democrats and some things that still feel like donald trump packs a punch. >> so look, three unrelated reactions. first of all, democrats in michigan are engaging in stupid behavior supporting him an anti democratic candidate because of a stupid formula. if you look at the risk publican arizona primary for senate, something we're not talking about is the republican caucus in the u.s. senate might actually be a caucus that will not ultimately support mitch mcconnell. mitch mcconnell is actually beginning to get in a bit of trouble should republicans regain majority. and again totally unrelated is the big news in kansas. i think the question is, in a world in which we have been told that the two choices are pro-choice or pro-life, there's actually a third choice emerging which is actually pro roe. it's a very different coalition. i think the question coming out of kansas is, is there a coalition of people obviously pro-choice, but those who may have previously consider themselves pro-life but in a post dobbs world, actually those voters are recognizing, the balance test with roe is where my politics are. kansas provides an interesting impression, we'll have to see what that means going into november. >> marie teresa kumar, think this point that david brings up about voters in michigan, saying we can be pigs bigger better than we can beat meijer, there are tricks to playing that game? >> i have to say that this is something that the democrats but giving breath to people who don't believe in our democracy is not a win for anyone that having these said the cook medical report just after maria but again, that is a big bet because you are giving oxygen to what we are trying to tamp down. because of what we are seeing unfold in the january six commission. that there was a good attempt by trump and the challenges, how do you put that away? and not having one of our major political parties endorsed an episode so they can win. that really sets up apart. separately the what we are seeing in arizona, the fact that you have a maga republicans on top of the ticket potentially running against kelly and hub for governor. nothing is going to mobilize voters in that space a more than the maga republicans. since 2020, we are expecting 80,000 more latinos use the turn -- and one of the reasons that arizona became a purple state was because of the ship the jan bharara. because of the sheriff are piles. was basically these antibodies that were carrying the mantle before donald trump came onto the scene. and so while this seems like it's going to be close, i think there will be much more potential for mark kelly and hobbs as a result of these maga republicans. >> jonathan, you called it a choice quake tonight, two things have happened, one as david jolly pointed out. causing people to think about abortion rights is something other than pro life or not it's more complicated. now it's a rights issue. and maybe more people are realizing that. but the other thing that is happened is turnout. we have a strong turnout tonight, we've had turnout that doesn't feel like a random tuesday night in primaries in the summer. >> that's right and turn out is the whole ball gain in midterm election. it really, these aren't really persuasion elections. they are mobilization elections. and just a few months ago there was a big enthusiasm gap as they call it, between republicans and democrats. and republicans seem significantly more enthusiastic. that has rotated and about a month ago, it was basically even. now, i think with kansas, you are gonna see in the polling and there already some indications of this. the democrats are actually gonna have the edge and enthusiasm mostly because of the abortion issue. but there are these other things that are also encouraging democrats, some success on capitol hill. the gun issue is very mobilizing for democrats. it would be more mobilizing for republicans. that's a flip. i also think the danger of these dangerous extremist is really the central kind of motivating issue. democrats in the last three elections have turned out against trump and we may see them doing that again. so trump might be a real motivator and is dangerous extremist followers. this guy mark finchem who's gonna be the republican nominee, likely for secretary of state, in arizona, can to a lot more damage than a member of congress. this guy was there on january six. he is qanon, he called charlottesville a psyops operation. truly unhinged. puts him in charge of the election in arizona? they are already believe that it's heads we win, tells they lose? really, the stakes are enormously high for democracy in the secretary of state races and democrats i think stupidly are not financing those races. they've got an almost no money from democrats and that's going to have to change to protect democracy. >> david jolly, we got a couple of minutes left, i want to ask you about what this does for moderate. people who don't want any part of this extreme right conspiracy, layton qanon, trump world, republican party. what's do they do and where do they go with this information? >> it's a fascinating question ali because i think we might be moving into the chapter in which all republican candidates are actually maga candidates. the trumpism effect is fully taken its foothold in the republican party. and so because of that, the actual analysis of whether or not a trump endorsement helps or hurts is maybe the wrong analysis. the secondary analysis might be whether it's even relevant. that's a question for donald trump himself. does he assert him saw say going into november, running in 2024, and claiming the mantle of the republican party? because otherwise, honestly, but for a few outliers, and you see a little bit in the arizona race, robeson, first, like where robson tries to defend the accuracy and authenticity of the last election. but still, the party itself is a fall maga party. and not only a full maga party, but one that has to hug closely to the election deniers, just as it does to the truth tellers. but there is no big win for democracy. within tonight's republican results. we know that, it is a mcgill party. there are no moderates left. when the new congress convenes in january, whatever the numbers are, between hours and days, the republican congress will be more maga, more deniers than true tellers, and that is the state of today's gop. >> that is a big matter to consider. as we think about tonight, there are successes, there are victories, there are losses, but the thing to consider is whether, jonathan you brought this, up there are gonna be some people who are running for office and might win who can change the outcome of how we vote. and a row democracy yet more. thanks to the three of you. it is great to spend this evening with you. david jolly, maria teresa kumar we are grateful for your time. jonathan alter, we are grateful for your time tonight. that does it for me right now, thank you for watching msnbc's primary night coverage continues right after this.

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