parges of past sexual misconduct against moore are true, and those who don't. 49% say the charges are definitely and probably true, 49%. 45% say the charges are definitely and probably not true, false. another telling result is on the question of president trump's job approval. look at this number, 48%, even steven on trump's job performance, a great leading indicator of what's coming tonight. this after trump began election day by accusing"-=v÷ new york sr being a flunky for chuck schumer, saying she would do anything for them. that was the phrase trump used tonight, that she came into hiso office, met with him, she had she would do anything to get his campaign money. senator elizabeth warren called that a case of slut-shaming. a lot hangs in the balance down in alabama tonight for the republican party. a victory for jones would weaken republican control of the senate, potentially jeopardizing the president's agenda. a victory for moore could leave lasting effects on the party struggling to define itself. both men made a last-minute appeal to voters. let listen to them. >> here today thshlgs a very important race for our country, for our state, and for the future. >> we feel very good about where we are in this race, what we'veu done, what we've accomplished. if alabama, we have come so far with too many things. and there's this saying. fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me. alabama's not going to let that happen again. >> moore had been missing from the campaign trail almost a week, made a defiant return last night rallying supporters and attacking the women who accused him of sexual misconduct. let's watch. >> we've been intimidated. other people have been intimidated. we're tired of it. "the washington post" put out this terrible, disgusting article saying i had done something. and i want you togáunderstand something. they said these women, two, had not come forward for nearly 40 years. but they waited till 30 days before this general election to come forward. actions are going to speak louder than words. >> the former judge got some serious reinforcement from his biggest booster, steve bannon. >> this is greater than judge moore. right? it's even greater than the people of alabama. i know one thing. nobody can come down here and tell folks in alabama what to do. >> well, he's doing it. anyway, challenger doug jones held his own rally and made his closing arguments to the voters of alabama. >> it is time, and i think we're going to see it tomorrow, that the majority of the people of alabama say that it is time that we put our decency, our state, before political party. >> jones brought along some support and it came from alabama native and one of my favorites, charles barkley, used to play for the sixers, here he is.soñ >> i am begging and urging everybody to get out, call all your friends. we got to at some point, we got to stop looking like idiots to the nation. >> love barkley. early this morning the president weighed in and reminded his supporters where he stood tweeting, the people of alabama will do the right thing, jones the pelosi schumer puppet, roy moore will always vote with us, vote roy moore. for the latest, joe archibald, columnist for the alabama media group. and the host of the most?yk listened to radio news program in alabama. john, thank you.hp÷ay first, what do you smell tonight? that's my favorite question politically, what do you smell? you know what i mean. >> i smell a tight one. i don't know what's going to happen. it's getting intense out there. the exit polling is really interesting. this one's going to go down to the wire. i tell you what i've never seen anything like it in my 30 years of doing this stuff. >> let me go to you, when you see the exit polls that say frump, 48/48, what's that tell you about tonight, anything? onnie first. >> could you repeat that, chris? >> when you see an exit poll that shows president trump's job support in alabama, among those who voted today, at 48-48, what does that tell you about who's going to win tonight? anything? >> it tells me this race is, as we say, tight as a tick, chris. >> how tight is a tick? hah! i don't know any ticks. how tight are they? when it's bitten into you? i guess that's what you mean. >> i don't know, we kind of went into this thinking there may be a 5-point lead. i bumped it down to a 2-point lead. but i don't know. i mean, i just don't know. >> who do you give to it right now? >> roy moore. >> same question? >> it's a lot tighter than i expected, even a week ago, chris. i would expect that roy moore squeezes this one out. it's a lot tighter than anyone would have expected, considering some of the exit polling we're getting with african-american turnout being a little higher than we anticipated. it is anybody's bargain. it's a jump ball right now. >> how high is it? up to 25%? back to john on this. the black vote, is the black vote going to be 25%, which apparently is the threshold to win this thing for jones? >> it looks to me like the turnout is going to be a little what makes -- what's turning at the last minute? ana, tell me what you see happening. i like to call races starting thursday before and getting a number in my head, then thinking from that number which way's the wind blowing? then coming up with who i thi: is going to win. four, five days ago, then look at the wind direction, where do you end up? >> i can tell you what our listeners have been saying when they call in to us. i think it's a lot like the presidential vote was. there were people who would not say they were voting for trump, weren't answering poll questions, kept to it themselves. didn't talk about it at parties that sort of thing. but then they went into the polls and they ended up voting for trump. i feel the same about this. not a lot of us are excited to vote for roy moore. but some of us will go in and do that. and we didn't answer a poll question, we didn't tell people how we were voting. i think there's a silent vote we can't discount. >> along those lines, i believe completely in what you said. people don't like telling people how they're voting if they think it's politically incorrect. by they also go by the voice that's on the phone. if somebody calls up, they may have a northern accent, may have perfect standard englishçfzxñ wo regional accent whatever, or -o hifalutin, seems to me i'd be hesitant to tell them what i thought. because i'd think they had a predisposition to not like me if i had the wrong view as far as they're concerned. you know what i'm talking about. do you think that plays a roll in polling and its inability to tell us who's going to win? >> it may but i don't discriminate against accents, wherever you come from, it's good by me. i don't have a land line. so i don't have a land line, those are disappearing across the country. i think that factors into it. unless they catch me on my cell phone, they have no clue what i think. >> what do you think about the sound of the voice that says, excuse me, how would you be voting today, are you going to vote for that mellow mr. moore? or vote for mr. jones?4#ç you don't think that plays into it?tx >> chris, i was talking about the days of my grandpa. grand park if he didn't recognize the voice on the other end of the phone, he hung up the phone. i think a lot of conservatives áu$at. they're just going to hang up the phone on someone they don't recognize. i think that plays into it. for me, though, it's all about where the turnout comes from. it's not necessarily about the polling. it's just does the turnout come from rural areas? does it come from urban areas? that's going to be the key tonight. >> what about the wealthier suburbs around birmingham? the college-educated folk with a little more money than average? how are they going to vote tonight?2u you first, onnie. >> that's a tough call. i know there are people who are disgusted about what's out about roy moore or never liked him in the first place. roy moore is not new to alabama politics, he's been around for decades. those comments over the years we've all heard. there are some who won't go vote. on the other hand, i think some of the educated -- college-educated will go. they're the ones who won't tell anyone they're voting for roy moore but they'll go do it. >> that's what i think happened in pennsylvania last year, by the way. exactly what you just said. the so-called better-educated, people who think they're better, ended up voting republican. why would they do that? because that's their ideology, right? how would you describe la÷it? >> i was raised that way in the south. i'm a christian, i tend to lean conservative and vote conservative. it's the lifestyle i grew up in. the majority of the state was raised the same way. not all of us but the majority. that's clear by us being a red state. >> the only woman on the show right now, i've got to address you. how big a mistake was it or wrong answer was it for doug jones to say he's for abortion basically right through? all the way to the end? to delivery almost? >> when i heard that interview that was a game changer. i went on social media and said, if you're a republican and you can't stomach voting for iv back that up and he didn't. so for me, that's a huge part of this. and a lot of people in this state. >> matt, do you agree with that? it could be a game changer, particularly for evangelical people? >> i am on record as saying if doug jones had taken a more moderate position on the issue of abortion, heeding ahead by points right now. we get call after call after call above and beyond the issue of the recent allegations against roy moore that tell us they simply cannot pull a lever for a person that believes in their words, in abortion on demand. >> earlier this month roy moore accused of anti-semitism after he seemed to say billionaire investor and liberal donor george soros was headed to hell. let's listen. >> soros certainly is trying to alter the voting populace, and that's true. he's pushing an agenda. his agenda is sexual in nature. his agenda is liberal. and not what americans need. it's not our american culture. soros comes from another world that i don't identify with. i wish i could face him directly, i'd tell him the same thing. no matter how much money he's got, he's still going to the same place. the people who don't recognize god and morality and accept his salvation are going. and that's not a good place. >> you heard it right there. no explanation needed to interpret what he ã[ñsaid. last night moore's wife kayla attack the media for their reporting on the comment and defended her husband against those claims. let's listen. >> fake news would tell you that we don't care for jews. i tell you all this because i've seen it also. i want to set the record straight while they're here. [ cheers and applause ] one of our attorneys is a jew. >> john archibald, i'm sorry. this is the funniest thing i ever heard. maybe because i live in the northeast, i live in a diverse society. i don't know how who your lawyer is tells you what your attitudes are. what did you make of that? all three of you comment on what you thought of that comment. >> you can't make this stuff up. you know, we've lived here in alabama, covered roy moore for a long time, so we've heard a lot of crazy stuff come out of his mouth. to hear it dribble out like this is kind of a wakeup call to all of us. but it's amazing. >> what do you make of it, onnie? your thoughts. >> you know, we talked to charles bym:gáey he called in our show this morning. politically i don't agree a lot with particularly, even though we went to auburn university, we share that love. i heard him say last night that, i know all sorts of people of different races, different religions, but that doesn't mean racism isn't around. i thought it was awkward to say, our attorney is a jew. we know jewish people, we're friends with jewish people. it sounded a little awkward to me. >> it harkened back to the days of, well, i have a really good friend who's a black person. it came off very awkwardly. i find it intriguing that everybody has a special place in hell nowadays. >> that's the thing. >> steve bannon thinks you have a special place in hell if you don't vote for the gop. everybody that votes differently than you seems to have a special place in hell. >> it took the place of everyone is hitler. you know, in the presidential race. >> i agree. let me give you a minute or two, what is it about alabama, just tell me, give me the picture of the culture of alabama. you first, onnie. how do you feel if you're going to somewhere overseas somewhere? let me tell you about alabama. what would you tell them? >> let me tell you something about alabama, yeah. >> i'm all ears. >> the rest of the nation thinks we are redneck, backward country. we did get plumbing, that's something new for us here. we have an auto industry that is thriving. >> sure is. >> we have a food industry that's thriving. we are educated, thoughtful. this is a complicated election. it's not as simple as are you8d going to vote for the child molester or the abortionist? it's not that simple. we've been dealing with hell since our governor was kicked out shenanigans in the officex'7l with one of his assistants. don't judge us by some of these politicians' actions because we are not to be -- thought less of. it's not allngzñ÷ what you peop think out there. >> you people. i accept that. go ahead, matt. i love that. >> i don't think we're nearly as monolithic as the rest of the country might have you believe. roy moore's been a known quantity for 20 years. and he's been a controversial figure for 20 years. he was alm58 default. if luther strange had made an attempt to be what he had always been during the course of the election, he would be the candidate in this race right now. think heat beat doug jones by 15 points. unfortunately he didn't do that. i would tell you that alabama, since i've been here, i got here in 1999, it is a thoughtful, considerate place when it comes to politics and despite our conservatism and how that might be perceived around the nation, we do put a lot of thought into the candidate that we vote for come election day. >> you know, i did go to chapel hill, i'm not completely alien to the south. you guys ar piece of work, you're great. john arch bald, make your call, who's going to win tonight? >> i still think that it's leaning toward roy moore. but, you know, anything can happen. it really is -- i hate to say it, it is a coin flip. >> thank you so much. sometimes it is. sometimes we smell a tie. anyway, thank you, john arch baeld, onnie linden berg, matt maturefy. you two are something special. we'll get a look more at the exit polls in alabama in just a minute. we were learning before the polls close. back at midnight with the results in the alabama senate race. i'm going to call the show tonight, late night midnight cowboy because of that candidate, roy moore. also coming up tonight, donald trump lashing out at three women on who revived their accusations of sexual misconduct against him, the president. now he's making a sexual insinuation about a sitting senator who called on him to resign or face a congressional investigation. that's ahead. he's getting pretty nasty. the russia rest gation as robert mueller moves in, conservatives want him stopped. trump wants a special prosecutor to investigate the special prosecutor. you know what that's about, deflection. alabama voters go to the polls. will they reject roy moore by 8:00? we'll see when voting ends tonight at the end of the hour just 45 minutes from now. finally let me finish with "trump watch." we'll see how he likes this the baby. this is "hardball" where the action is. i am totally blind. and non-24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. talk to your doctor, and call 844-214-2424. we are the tv doctors of america, and we may not know much about medicine, but we know a lot about drama. we also know that you can avoid drama by getting an annual check-up. so go, know, and take control of your health. it could save your life. cigna. together, all the way. as i said, we'll have more on the race in alabama throughout this hour as we await poll closing at 8:00 eastern time. it's coming up fast now. about 42 minutes from now. don't forget our special q:é "hardba "hardball," we'll call it midnight cowboy. roy moore. president trump attacked senator kirsten gillibrand in new york. this is democrats calling on the president to be investigated for his misconduct or resign. i don't think he's going to do that. shawn evans: it's 6 am. 40 million americans are waking up to a gillette shave. and at our factory in boston, 1,200 workers are starting their day building on over a hundred years of heritage, craftsmanship and innovation. today we're bringing you america's number one shave at lower prices every day. putting money back in the pockets of millions of americans. as one of those workers, i'm proud to bring you gillette quality for less, because nobody can beat the men and women of gillette. gillette - the best a man can get. welcome back to "hardball." donald trump lashing out against dtqi áq'ate against sexual misconduct, new york senator kirsten gillibrand. in a tweet early this morning that many have interpreted as sexually suggestive, i'd say so, trump said the senator said she would do anything for him. if he'd give her campaign money. watch this. trump wrote, lightweight senator kirsten gillibrand, flunky for chuck schumer, someone who would come to my office begging for campaign contributions and would anything for them, is now in the ring light fighting against trump. crooked, used. that was his phrase. the president's tweet sparked a fierce backlash, let's watch. >> it was a sexist smear attempting to silence my voice. and i will not be silenced on this issue. neither will the women who stood up to the president yesterday. >> when the president tweeted about our colleague, senator kirsten gillibrand, is grotes e grotesque, it took my breath away, and it represents the conduct of a person who is ill equipp eped to be the president the united states. >> the president's tweet this morning against senator gillibrand was a disgraceful, sexist slur that has no place in american dialogue and diminishes and shames the office of the yuñ president. >> white house brace secretary sarah huckabee, who will say anything in the president's defense, was asked about the president's tweet. here's what she said. >> gillibrand owed an apology for the misunderstanding of the president's tweet this morning? because many, including senators, think it's about sexual innuendos. >> only if your mind was in the gut we're you have read it that way. so, no. >> well, she seemed to be 0a to ding -- trump appears be responding to senator gillibrand's call yesterday for congress to investigate allegations against him of sexual misconduct. more than 50 democratic congress woim have echoed jilli grand's appeal asking for a probe by the house oversight committee which has wide-ranging authority to hold such investigation. senator gillibrand is one of six democratic senators who have called for the president to quit. for more i'm joined by u.s. congresswoman brenda lawrence from michigan, one of the democrats calling for f the president. stephanie shreeyok, she's been here forever, "emily's list." robert costa, "washington post." i don't think it takes a lot of interpretation the president tweets she came into his office, all alone, says i'll do anything for money. it was pretty clear it was a slut-shaming to use the phrase of elizabeth warren. >> this is a continuance of behavior, of wording, of just his view of women. it is so comfortable for him to give these type of comments. and for him, he's been teflon. nothing has stuck.ywsñ >> it has stuck, we all know this stuff about him and he actually never denies it, he gets away with it. >> we have called for an investigation saying this president, if we're holding other members of congress accountable, it doesn't stop in the house, it should go to the white house. he admitted he said those things in the recording, then they goes back and said, well, it's just shop talk, locker room talk. now here we have it again. look at how he tweeted other anchor women, and it's continuous. this is a president has no respect for women. and even in this moore situation, he takes a national platform to say, these women, they're just allegations, don't pay them any attention, men can do what they want to do and there's no accountability. he should be investigated just like everyone else with allegations of sexual harassment. >> robert for a minute, why do you think he did this this morning? he really upped -- you're not supposed to shoot down. he's president of the united states. he's going after the junior senator from new york who's not known by 90% of the in the country. she's very smart and may well be president someday but right now she's not known. he's building her up to a duel. he's like, it's me against kirsten jillen brand. people in wyoming are saying, who's this he's fighting with today? why is he building her up by accusing her of this? >> you hinted at it in your question. he sees in senator gillibrand and in senator elizabeth warren potential 2020 and he wants to define them on his own rough terms at this early stage. >> wow. what do you make of that, c:f stephanie? you're a smart pol. do you think it's smart of him to build them up because he thinks he can beat them? >> no, i don't think most of the things he does as very smart, to be fair, he's not. i think it is how he is doing it that is so disgusting. i was outraged this morning as we all were -- >> did you hear it as elizabeth warren heard it? basically accusing -- >> yes. i say to the press secretary as well, i mean, sarah surely heard that it way too. >> why did she say your mind's in the gutter? >> because she has to defend. but we all know what he said. because he's a bully. and he's really good at using this coded language. and as he goes after senator gillibrand, goes after senator warren, we see it over and over again. he's using this gender coded language. he also does it on the racial front as well. and that's really what this was. >> can i -- let's talk about this. he did the same thing against the opponent, a woman opponent, he made fun of her looks. >> yes. >> then the woman said brilliantly, the smartest thing she said, every woman in america knew what you meant. i think this time every man and woman knows what he meant. why does he then deny it? he clearly intends to reduce her sexually. that's what he did. >> this man is a predator. he has demonstrated time and time again that he views women at a level that is unacceptable for anyone. but for him to be the president of the united states, just think about the young girls who are watching this. the girls who are growing up and seeing the president of the united states saying, oh, you were in the office and you'll do anything to get money from me. the shock is, oh my goodness, what is he saying? and this is -- we need to call for accountability. accountability for this manlecto has taken his platform to attack women. >> she's not taking credit for something great that happened today. the difference about this moment now is we have these incredible women in congress, like congresswoman brenda lawrence, senator gillibrand, who are willing to stand up, to hear the women's voices that are being call the. and i think about the "me too" movement that we are in the middle of. and to know that the women in congress are there to say, we are going to hear you. we're going to listen. i'm telling you, you know me, i worked to elect democratic women at "emily's list." >> let's talk about democrats. >> across the board, we need more of them. >> the tools the opposition has, you guys, you democrats -- i'll talk at democrats although i tend to vote that way, not all the time. i'm looking at you and saying, you could get special orders, the minute the session's over tonight or tomorrow, go into the well of the house and all night long on c-span, you could rail against this president and the accusations against him. you could quote chapter and verse all the charges again. you own that facility. yet the democrats don't use the tools of public communication the way the republicans know how to do. >> i would have to push back. we have never had a president that every single day -- >> why don't you do what i'm saying? >> every single day we are attacking those issues -- >> why don't you use special orders? >> we are doing. >> when? >> on the floor every night, the tax plan, we have to fight for taxes, we have to fight for daca, we have to fight -- >> are you on this all night? >> am i -- >> are the democrats using the floor of the house on this issue? >> on this issue we had a press conference today, over 100 women -- >> we're arguing against each other, okay. i hate to give advice because it's never really taken. >> we said it was criminal -- >> you've got a platform in the house, you should use it. i love to argue. robert, is president trump happy with the way this thing's turned out, a battle between him and kirsten gillibrand? >> he always likes to be at the center of things. he now faces the point that if doug jones wins in alabama or he comes close to winning, it's going to show that even in red states, questions of character and conduct÷igu matter. even to trump voters. trump's core base. that could have reverberations in the 2018 midterms. because the allegations against president trump have been revived and will continue to be revived. >> well said. thank you much. by the way, u.s. congress women, they're called special orders, i'm pushing for them. use them, exploit them. >> yes, sir. >> don't call me sir, just listen. the age and experience of history, i'm so much older than you. thank you, congresswoman brenda lawrence of michigan, stephanie with "emily's list," robert costa ""the washington post."" as specialon)ñ mueller's investigation closes in on trump's inner circle. back to the alabama senate race. polls will be closed in half an hour. i'm looking at less than half an hour. oh, not so fast, carl. ♪ oh no. schwab, again? 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[ both laugh ] here, blow. blow on it. you see it, right? is there a draft in here? i'm telling you, it's so easy to get home insurance on progressive.com. progressive can't save you from becoming your parents. but we can save you money when you bundle home and auto. welcome back to "hardball." trump's defenders and his lawyers are trying to deflect attention from the ongoing russian probe and are instead calling again for investigations of the fbi. and of hillary clinton again. now trump lawyer jay sekulow is getting into the game after fox news reported a justice department official was demoted for having connections to including his wife having worked for the research firm that hired the former british intelligence officer christopher steel to compile the dossier on donald trump. fox reported the house intelligence committee led by devin nunes has evidence the demoted just did it department official met with steel during the election and met with the founder of the company that hired him to produce the dossier. fox reported yesterday that the wife of the demoted official work the for the opposition research firm last year. now trump attorney jay sekulow tells ax yoes "the department of justice and fbi cannot ignore the multiple problems that have been created by these obvious conflicts of interest, these new revelations require the appointment of a special counsel to investigate just a moment he added "it has nothing to do with bob mueller or mueller's team." paul butler, former federal prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst. he's saying it has nothing to do with bob mueller's investigation so why are they having a special investigation about an internal matter within the justice department about whether there was a conflict between a guy having something to do with picking this research firm and he's wife working for that research firm and that research firm having worked for hillary? it doesn't necessarily mean they're doing any corrupt, and by the way can't the department of justice figure this out? >> special counsel for what? so i do my homework, i looked up this special counsel statute. it says, if there's a conflict of interest that the department can't prosecute the case objectively, like for example when the attorney general does not tell the truth about his own dealings with the russians and he's supposed to be investigating the russians, that's a conflict. it's not a conflict when there's no allegations that anyone's done anything wrong. or who's a subject of this new call. all he has is a wife who has a job. you're allowed to have a partner who works outside of the department of justice. he hasn't done anything wrong. again, we do need to know about his conversations with steele, with theñvxñy people who collec this dossier, whether that had anything to do with how the department ruled. but again, there's no allegations at this point of any impropriety.!kuj it's a false equivalence. the president's lawyers are saying, because there's a special counsel investigating treasure, there ought to be a special counsel to investigate hillary. that's not how it works. >> what do you think they're doing it for, to create trouble? >> again, i don't blame the president's defense attorney because finally the president has a lawyer who understands that this lawyer's responsibility is to president trump. tofíóp keeping donald trump out prison, or in office. as opposed to his loyalty being to the6m)vz united states. which is the loyalty of the attorney general. who i do blame is the people who are on the senate intelligence committee, the republicans who are also calling for a special counsel. because their duty is to the united states. and this investigation, for which there is a special counsel, russian collusion, that's about the integrity of american democracy. it's more consequential than watergate. for them to play politics about this and say, oh, we need another special counsel, that's unconscionable. >> that's what they do. they did it before during the iraq war cover-up. they went after a u.s. ambassador that reported back from africa because he wife work the for the wcia, theyout out heard toçscñ show something tha don't prove anything except that they were scurrilous. alabama, the polls close in 20 minutes. will republicans break with theirasz&x candidate roy moore not? it looks really close based upon all the numbers we've looked at. will democrats see heavy turnout at the polls, especially african-american and women voters? more from our exit polling coming up next. what's inside the box. it's what's inside the person who opens it. ♪ give ancestrydna, the only dna test that can trace your origins to over 150 ethnic regions- and open up a world of possibilities. ♪ save 30% for the holidays at ancestrydna.com just serve classy snacks and bew a gracious host,iday party. no matter who shows up. do you like nuts? let's get the big guy in place. the ford year end sales event is here. i can guide you in. no, thanks , santa. i got this. santa: uh, it looks a little tight. perfect fit. santa needs an f-150. that's ford, america's best selling brand. hurry in today for 0% financing for 72 months across the full line up of ford cars, trucks and suvs. for a limited time, get an additional $1,000 cash back on top of 0% financing for 72 months. get these exclusive offers during the ford year end sales event. get these exclusive offers why did you take credit card debt on? second kid. private school. medical bills. moving costs. solid ground. a personal loan from sofi is a smart way to consolidate credit card debt. certain borrowers cut their credit card interest rates 42% and increased credit scores 17 points on average. borrow up to $100,000 with low rates and no hidden fees. find your rate in just two minutes, and take on your debt at sofi.com. there's that music again. it's an election on nbc news at msnbc. welcome back to "hardball." polls in alabama will be"çí8 cl in less than 20 minutes. for the latest exit polling in the race let's go to our expert who's always0 kornacki. >> chris, look, the word we've been using in the race, talking about the horse race here, was polarizing. how polarized the electorate was, how polarized poll tibs are. we have a polarized exit poll. some of the highlight questions, the question of values, a basic car judgment about the candidates, does roy moore share your values? you see here 46% in this exit poll saying yes, 49% saying no. if you turn the question around, awez' th0 same thing about his opponent, doug jones, what do you see? not that different. 49% saying jones shares their values, 48% no. so almost an event split for both candidates. a very, very slight difference in jones' favor. a couple ofryfw.her things we c show you here. this is the issue, one of the big issues the moore folks want people to be voting on, party instead of person. which party do you want controlling the senate? you can see here it is a slight majority for the republicans, 51-43. in a state like alabama, traditionally that number would be much higher. still ahead for the republicans there. then the question of abortion. this is the other issue that moore's people want folks focusing on instead of the scandals. the question of abortion. you see alabama one of the most anti-abortion states in the country, not a surprise to see the majority here, 54%, saying that abortion should be illegal. jones, the democrat, he is running as a pro-choice democrat in one of the most anti-abortion states in the country. so again, this is one of those numbers that jones folks were thinking about during this campaign, chris. >> let me get back to my tut-tut there. do you think 8 points is slight? i really think that party i.d. thing seemed pretty significant, that number. >> well, sure. look, if you're looking in the abstract, 51%, 43%, republicans have the advantage. from the standpoint of donald trump just won this state last year with 63% of the vote, if you're looking at this, you had to go back to 2002 to find a senate race that was within 20 points in this state. >> i see. >> in the context of alabama politics, you'd never see it this close. >> so well said. with recent public tracking polls varying so widely the winner of tonight's race between roy moore and doug jones is anybody's guess. roy's counting on turnout by trump returns. are they willing to overlook the numerous allegations of his past sexual misconduct? according to exit polls 72% say they believe those allegations are false. that's a powerful number. they've heard the same news we've all gotten and they're rejecting it. in return doug jones needs women voters as well as solid support from african-americans who represent one-quarter of the state's polltation. however, a voter i.d. law could suppress turnout among potential jones voters. as scott douglas writes in "the new york times" op ed, in alabama an estimated 118,000 registered voters, registered voters, do not have a photo i.d. voters, do not h!ujya photo i.d. black and latino voters are nearly twice as likely as white voters to lack such documentation. this is democracy? i'm joined by the "hardball" roundtable. sofia nelson, former house gop committee counsel. cornell belcher, msnbc analyst. heidi press ton, senior political analyst. what grabs yourg=uq this race? >> i think that this race is going to come down to white evangelical christians. i have a piece right now on nbc think about this and i break it down, that's the real story here. is there hypocrisy? will they choose the guy who's pro-life but may have done inappropriate things with young girls? or the democrat who's pro-choice and who helped to findt8p people who killed the four little girl in the black church? so there's a real)td conundrum white evangelical christians. that to me is the story. >> i love sofia but i'm going did disagree slightly rewide receiver know what white evangelical christians are going to be. to me it's what are the more moderate, middle of the road republican women doing, right? let be clear, this is a republican state. republican as all heck. he only wins if republicans either sit on their hands or some switch over. >> you're saying -- >> it's going to come down -- >> doug jones only wins if there's a strange development? >> if there's increased turnout among minorities, which the early exit polling says they're overindexing. and still, even with that -- >> over 25%? >> right now it's over 25%, which is better than it typically is. but you still need republican women to cross over. >> 25% of the electorate tonight will be african-american. that's a good sign. >> more than 25% of the electorate is reform reform, rightxe)ju$e early exits show it more, that's a good sign for democrats. one quick thing, only 49% plurality, that think the allegations is true is a bad indicate foreroy moore. >> bad indicator yes. >> if the turn out models are that if overall numbers get up to not just midterm b u of lot of national attention on this race across the country, the whole world's watching this, anybody following the news around the world is watching this. has that been a plus or negative for roy moore? i think it's probably encouraged the turnout. but it's also created this sort of alabama against the world mentality. >> i totally agree with you. >> what's the net effect of all this publicity? >> i think cort0v's right. if there's a 30% black turnout, i think doug jones has a shot. if it's below that, white evangelicals and white women are going to carry him into this seat. >> i think that the world is watching this is bad for mitch mcconnell. either way -- >> let's go back to this question. is it driving up the attitude of alabama outside agitators, which we grew up with that phrase -- >> i had a conversation with senator kennedy, who's in laboring louisiana but similar culturally today. we cannot underestimate the seeding anger of people in that region about washington, not just washington but the rest of the world coming down there, people like charles barkley saying, show them y'all are not rednecks. >> you heard it a minute ago, lindbergh, she was saying we're not all the way you people think we are, throwing me in that barrel. >> the flip side of that is the business communities who are saying, we don't want to look -- a state that's trying to be a tech and manufacturing hub, who wants to bring in all these new companies, we don't want to look backwards in the view of the world. >> that's a great conflicting strain. the roundtable's sticking with us. up next scoops from these people by tomorrow. they can predict if they want to before 8:00. you're watching "hardball."paig , malware attacks... actually, we just handled all the priority threats. you did that? 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( ♪ ) program note, msnbc will be tracking results out of alabama all evening including a midnight cowboy for guess who, back on the air at midnight, 12:00 eastern. we'll be right back now. that's it? yeah. ♪ everybody two seconds! ♪ "dear sebastian, after careful consideration of your application, it is with great pleasure that we offer our congratulations on your acceptance..." through the tuition assistance program, every day mcdonald's helps more people go to college. it's part of our commitment to being america's best first job. ♪ i am totally blind. and non-24 can make me show up too early... or too late. or make me feel like i'm not really "there." talk to your doctor, and call 844-234-2424. you only earn double withmiles when you buy stuffds, from that airline. is this where you typically shop? is this where anyone typically shops? it's time to switch to the capital one venture card. with venture, you earn unlimited double miles on every purchase, everywhere, every day... not just airline purchases. seriously... double miles... everywhere! what's in your wallet? the polls are going to be closed in alabama at the top of the hour which we're getting to right now. we're going to get our first characterization of the race. right now we're back with "the hardball" roundtable. sophie yeah tell me something i don't know. >> first i think roy moore will win by 3 points. what you don't know is -- >> testable prediction. >> three "washington post" away from the moorehead quarters event tonight. the election campaign event. >> turned away. >> yeah, they wouldn't let them in, they don't like "the washington post." >> i've changed my tell you something. my opinion is, i think that doug jones is going to win. >> by how many? >> i think doug jones wins by a percentage point. and i think no one's rooting more for$+ doug jones than mitc mcconnell. that's something you don't know. >> i'm not making a prediction. >> you don't have to. >> i'm going to report here that i've been in touch with mitch mcconnell's aides this evening and if moore wins, as we're expecting potentially, he will try and kick this over to the conference as a decision about what they're going to do with the committee posts, about what they're going to do with an ethics investigation. stress that many of these things are2v6i very complicated proces and it's up to the conference. >> fascinating. great forward-looking reporting. sofia nelson, cornell belcher, heidi, of course. when we return let me finish with "trump watch." remember how the economic crash was supposed to be a wake up call for our government? people all across the country lost their savings, their pensions and their jobs. i'm tom steyer and it turned out that the system that had benefited people like me who are well off, was, in fact, stacked against everyone else. it's why i left my investment firm and resolved to use my savings for the public good. but here we are nine years later and this president and the republican congress are making a bad situation even worse. they won't tell you that their so called "tax reform" plan is really for the wealthy and big corporations, while hurting the middle class. it blows up the deficit and that means fewer investments in education, health care and job creation. it's up to all of us to stand up to this president. not just for impeachable offenses, but also to demand a country where everyone has a real chance to succeed. join us. your voice matters. we're on a mission to show drip coffee drinkers, it's time to wake up to keurig. wakey! wakey! rise and shine! oh my gosh! how are you? well watch this. i pop that in there. press brew. that's it. so rich. i love it. that's why you should be a keurig man! full-bodied. are you sure you're describing the coffee and not me? somesend you and your family overwhelrunning. y can... full-bodied. introducing febreze one for fabric and air. no aerosols. no dyes. no heavy perfumes. it cleans away odors for a pure light freshness... so you can spray and stay. febreze one, breathe happy. to find smarter solutions. to offer more precise and less invasive treatment options than before. like advanced genomic testing and immunotherapy. see how we're fighting to outsmart cancer at cancercenter.com/outsmart "trump watch." we're on the verge of getting alabama's verdict. polls will close in just a minute. much of the news-connected world is looking to see the latest take on what america stands for. are we a country that upholds traditional values even if it means abiding their violation? that will be the message if roy moore comes out the victor because the voters of alabama will be saying just that, they want a senator in washington who shares their values on abortion and marriage, that would be republican roy moore, and don't want one that is not, that being democrat;pf1jáut jones. the difficulty of predicting this election lies in the unwillingness of people to speak honestly to pollsters. if you get a phone call from someone with a well-educated voice it could face a certain political attitude. you may not be so interested in sharing that fact with someone with a voice like that, of the pollster who's got you on the phone. based on all of this, i think it's going to be close tonight. no matter how close, the verdict from alabama is going be heard worldwide. it's going to be a signal from this country about who we are what we value, what behavior we will abide. that's "hardball"%aftju now. thanks for being with us. the polls in alabama are about to close. i'll be back at midnight tonight with "midnight cowboy," the story of roy moore and how he did today. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. tonight on "all in" -- >> i don't think that roy moore's going to win this election. >> if you don't believe in my character, don't vote for me. >> tonight, the massive stakes of the special election in alabama. >> we've got to stop looking like idiots to the nation. >> would a roy moore win be an even bigger headache for republicans? can the democrat doug jones shock the world? >> get out and vote for roy moore! >> and the president pours gasoline on his own "me too" moment. >> it was a sexist smear attempting to silence my voice. >> the first results from election night in alabama when "all in" starts right now. >> one of our attorneys is a s7m >> good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes and it is a very big night. the polls have just at this moment closed in the special senate election in alabama at this hour, nbc news characterizing the race there as too early to call. with polls closed we can now begin tow8u returns. we don't really have any of those yet because they have