president. all at the forefront as a nation once again heads to the polls. >> an election is not a referendum, it's a choice. >> at the center, control of congress with a 50/50 senate boiling down to a series of tight races that could tip the scale. >> the open nature of our border which john fetterman supports. >> trying to make himself not appear to be the radical leftist that he is. >> this is the man who spent 12 years in office misleading people. >> it's the voice of the voters that will prevail. which issues matter most to them in this final stretch. >> after roe, i've never lived in this type of era. >> gas prices, food prices. >> everything is so expensive now. ♪♪ from the nation's capital and from just down the road from the u.s. capitol, i'm steve kornacki, and we're eight days away from the midterm election that will decide who controls that building right behind me. the margins, they could not be tighter. democrats clinging to a senate majority thanks only to the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and republicans needing a gain of just five seats to win back the house. as for the polling, well, it's sending decidedly mixed signals. adding only to the uncertainty and the suspense before the election. brand-new numbers from four senate battlegrounds, georgia, arizona, nevada, pennsylvania, numbers that if you're a democrat should encourage you. of course, we've also seen the polls lead us astray more than once in recent years as well. on this halloween, there are also plenty of numbers that might frighten democrats as well. the president's popularity remains low and new polling underscoring that the economy and inflation are at the very top of voters minds. these are issues where republicans enjoy a decided advantage. already now, more than 22 million americans have cast their ballots early and that gets to the ultimate variable. next week's midterm should shatter all records when it comes to turnout. who exactly will and won't turn up? that's another layer of uncertainty there. former president donald trump, meanwhile, his presence is unusually large. he'll be hitting the campaign trail. so too will be president biden. his presence rather muted for a sitting president. instead, it is the last democratic president before biden, barack obama, that democrats are more eagerly turning to in the final days. >> fundamentally, you should be asking yourself right now is, who will -- who will fight for you? who cares about you? that's the choice in this election. all the other stuff is surface stuff. it's distraction. >> and welcome to our set here in d.c. as we count down eight days to election day. as we say with all the early voting going on, the election in many ways already under way. again, to underscore the stakes here, a 50-50 senate. republicans needing a net gain of one seat to get control of the senate back. the house sits as close as it could possibly be pretty much. it would be a net gain of five seats that republicans need if they're going to take back the house here. taking a look at the senate battleground in blue, you see, the five most vulnerable democratic seats in red. you see the five most vulnerable republican seats. for every one of these blue seats that republicans are able to flip red, if they're able to flip any of them red, for every one that they do, democrats have to counter by flipping one of these red states blue. that would keep the senate at that 50-50 balance where democrats get the majority because kamala harris breaks the tie. we've been asking, what is the current political atmosphere? we've been tracking the generic ballot, do you want republicans to be controlling, democrats to be controlling, we've looked at this thing in past midterms. sometimes it's been shouting and screaming a week out from the election one party has a clear advantage. that was the case four years ago with democrats. you could see that in 2010 when republicans had that huge year. there's confusion in the polling. there's a couple of different folks here who track the average of the generic ballot. real clear politics has been doing this for 20 years. their average of the polls puts republicans ahead in the generic ballot by just about three points here. in the last two weeks, in their polling average, last three weeks it went from even to republicans by about this margin. that's real clear politics. 538 average closer. republicans 0.8 of a point ahead in the generic ballot. let's do our own average here just for the heck of it. let's take every poll that has come out in the last two weeks, what would happen if you average those together? just to see, and it would be republicans by 0.4 of a point. there's a range of possibilities here in terms of the poll average. as i said, in some past midterm elections, there have been very clear, very pronounced leads for one party at this point. republicans seem to have some sort of edge here right now on the generic ballot. but exactly to what degree they have an edge, that's the mystery and the suspense, again, it raises all sorts of possibilities, especially when you factor in the possibility for record-shattering turnout. north of 128 million people. numbers that would have been unthinkable in a midterm election a decade ago. now perhaps our new norm. let's dive into it. let's bring in our reporters and experts, chris jansing, she's been speaking to voters in the key state of ohio. rich lowry, nbc news political analyst and editor of national review, jen psaki, former press secretary in the biden white house now with msnbc and charlie cook, nbc news political contributor and the founder of the cook political report. chris jansing, i want to start with you on the ground in ohio. the senate race out there, ryan versus vance, one of those key races when you talk about senate control. ohio a state that went for donald trump twice by big margins, eight points in both elections. democrats trying to pull off a senate victory there that could scramble that map. you're on the ground. what are you hearing there? >> reporter: that eight points is key, so is the fact that there's only one person, sherrod brown, who is in an office in ohio, the only democrat that gets voted on statewide. i wanted to find out what is it in this red state that makes this a horse race, frankly, how did tim ryan get to the point where he's challenging jd vance and i guess if i had to use a word, it's shaken. this is an electorate already shaken by everything from the cost of groceries to crime. now the attack on the home of speaker nancy pelosi. so i sat down with four voters, they haven't voted yet, one republican, one democrat, two independents, only one has decided how they'll vote in that senate race so far. take a listen. >> i'll be voting for jd vance. i agree with him on a lot of different levels in a sense that -- and let me admit to, he was not my first choice during the primaries. >> i'm looking at tim ryan, but i'm not sure. i'm looking at jd vance and i'm -- i don't know. >> they both have pros and cons. i see what jd vance -- he's a fellow marine. i'm a marine. tim ryan brings experience to the table. it's hard. a lot of the stuff that they want out there is in favor of them. you have to dig a little deeper and find out past the super pacs and past all those people, because they're obviously -- it's propaganda and persuasion. >> i'm 70% picked, but i just like to be sure because the person that i pick not only has politics up in line for what's going on the next few years, but they set the bar for the other politicians that come after them. >> it doesn't sound like any of you will vote for someone who you feel enthusiastic about. [ laughter ] >> it seems like we went from a civilization where we used to vote for who was the best candidate, now we vote for who is not the worst. i don't know why it went to that. >> i don't know why either. >> reporter: steve, saying you're fed up with politicians is not new, i would say the depth to which people feel that fear, fear about everything from the state of politics today and where it's going, about the economy, about their own physical safety in their homes, in their neighborhoods is extraordinarily deep. they feel the weight of the decision they're making. they know ohio could help tip the balance. if there's good news for candidates, there's still an opportunity, again, not a single one of them, steve, has voted yet. they're waiting for something from these candidates to say to them, this is how i should vote. >> chris jansing out there in ohio, thank you. we'll be looking for you on your show there just a few hours from now. appreciate you joining us. let me turn now to our panel and, charlie cook, start with you. we raised some questions here from the polls that's out there right now. i'm curious, you've seen your share of midterm elections. when you look at the climate right now, when you look at some of those different ballot numbers that you have out there, you look at this variable of kuf the polling has been a little spotty the last few election cycles, how do you look at this race a week out? >> the broader environment is bad for democrats, but there are some cross pressures because of the dobbs abortion issue. the other thing is, i think republicans -- unless this is a tsunami or something, i don't think it's going to be that, they're going to leave seats on the table because they nominated some exotic and potentially problematic people that if it's not an 80 miles per hour tail wind, they're going to lose some places that they would otherwise win. where they would be better off with placebos than who they ended up with. that's going to trim down a little bit. it's a not good environment for democrats. if it wasn't for abortion, donald trump and exotic candidates, this would be a horror show for democrats. >> rich, picking up on what charlie is saying there. we're going to dive into some of the polling numbers a little bit later. one of the themes there is that some of these individual republican senate candidates in this new round of polling are underperforming sort of generically what voters are saying they feel in terms of republicans versus democrats. do you agree with what charlie just said, that republicans are leaving seats at the table and how costly could that be? >> yeah, they're going to leave some. it's -- the senate seats you don't want to leave on the table. that's costly and matters a lot. and the -- the key here is pennsylvania. that's -- democrats aren't going to take ohio, not in a year like this. republicans have had to invest more in ohio than they should have, but there's no way jd vance is losing ohio. if republicans hold pennsylvania, it's really easy to see how they get to 51 or above. if they don't, it gets much diceyer and the "new york times" times policy today had fetterman up by three. most of that poll was taken prior to the debate. i'm not sure it's the best pressure. but that one -- whoever is ahead, it's really narrow and it's going to be really close on election night and perhaps beyond. we might not have a result on election night. but that's the real one to watch. it's not a great -- republicans don't have a great candidate there, mehmet oz, not a natural fit for pennsylvania, but fetterman has had his problems too. >> from a democrat standpoint, what is a good night for democrats next week? does it involve actually holding the house or is a good night, they hold the senate and they keep the republican victories in the house to a minimum, but they still lose the house. >> a good night is holding at least one house of congress. an amazing night would be holding the senate and the house. but clearly the pathway to holding the senate is an easier pathway for democrats than holding the house. in the house, they only have a five-seat margin to lose. that's very narrow. and a lot of -- their charges right now are the number of retirements, the number of resources they have and that gives republicans -- in addition to all of the headwinds that charlie talked about, some advantages in that area. but the senate would be a huge victory. >> what about the issue of turnout? if you just go back to 2014, it was 86 million, that's the number of people that voted in the midterm election. in 2018, it was about 116 million. now we're talking 120 to 130. does that add a layer of uncertainty here in terms of how this could go? >> it does. one thing we could all thank donald trump for is no one says it doesn't matter who wins elections anymore. in '18 and '20, just off the charts turnouts. but that doesn't really tell us who that advantages. to jen's points, candidates matter in the senate than the house. it's just -- that's just really hard for democrats. but the senate, you know, you could have 150,000 votes decide between republicans, pick up a seat or two or democrats pick up a seat or two. i would keep an eye on washington state. that's getting a little tighter. >> there's a sleeper one there too potentially. rich, when we talk about this issue of turnout here, you know, democrats will say -- and we'll show this a little bit later too -- particularly the issue of abortion in the wake of the supreme court decision has motivated and will motivate democratic voters to turn out, perhaps voters who wouldn't ordinarily turn out in a midterm election and that it will neutralize republican advantages on other issues. it will create a little bit more of a level playing field. gets to that question of 120, 130 million people turning out. does that include a larger number of democratic friendly voters. do you see that possibly? when you look at a generic ballot, it's not a blowout for republicans right now, do you see that potentially happening? >> there's no doubt dobbs benefitted democrats, it turned on their voters which is really important, turnout, obviously, is really important. i think it has faded. i think it's a secondary issue compared to the economy and inflation and also a lot of republicans actually finally found their footing on this issue and staked out some compromised ground they found was defensible and started taking shots at democrats as extremists for favoring basically no restrictions on abortion. so it's -- it's the best era the democrats have had in their quiver. i think they've played it for all it's worth. there's no way it's going to change the overall environment which is so hostile to democrats. >> speaking of that environment, jen, when you look at the economy and you look at inflation, it consistently rates as a top issue of voters. and republicans, they're consistently saying they're going to vote republican by pretty lopsided margins. is there anything democrats could have done? was there a missed opportunity here for democrats to not face that kind of a headwind? >> on inflation, it's a global issue. there's not a lot of democrats could have done to change that reality. what you are seeing, people like barack obama and joe biden do, is really try to make this about a choice and not a referendum on president biden. you heard him say almost exactly that when he was answering questions over the weekend. if we're looking back and the democrats can't hold the senate, that will be a question, should they have hardened that and been tougher on that earlier? but right now, i think that's their closing argument. it's about we know inflation is an issue. we know your costs are too high. who has a better plan? we have a better plan. give us a chance to have more time. and we're going to have to see if that works or not. >> all right, jen psaki, rich lowry, charlie cook, thank you for helping us lead off our election special here and thanks to chris jansing. she had to prepare for her own show. but you can catch that live from cleveland, 1:00 p.m. eastern today, the heart of a battleground state. catch up with chris jansing about an hour and 40 minutes from you. brand-new polling this morning, democrats clinging by a razor's edge advantage in some crucial senate races. does that track with what our reporters are seeing on the ground? plus he's still the biggest name on the campaign trail. how former president donald trump is motivating voters on both sides of the aisle. we'll look at the biggest issue on voters' minds as they head to the polls. >> the most important issue in arizona, when i'm voting, is protecting the essence of our democracy. we're for worse ground zero of this election denier stuff. doesn't your family deserve the best? eggland's best eggs. classic, cage free, and organic. more delicious, farm-fresh taste. plus, superior nutrition. because the way we care is anything but ordinary. ♪♪ (vo) with verizon, you can now get a private 5g network. so you can do more than connect your business,g but ordinary. you can make it even smarter. now ports can know where every piece of cargo is. and where it's going. 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or is it too stubborn for him to overcome. >> the split-ticket trend has been a stubborn trend for republicans. kemp has a lead over stacey abrams. it could spell trouble for herschel walker. that would be the difference between a victory for herschel walker and a runoff in december. i'll tell you, even though these polls show it's very close, both campaigns are girding for that december 6th runoff right now that could determine control of the u.s. senate. >> and just in terms of what it would take for walker to catch warnock here in the home stretch, is he going to be getting explicit help at all from brian kemp, or is there a distance between the two of them? >> that's a great question. kemp continues to hold herschel walker at arm's length. they haven't campaigned together. they're not rallying for each other. they're going after different audiences. kemp doesn't have to consolidate the republican base. you're hearing herschel walker take those stances. he's talking about transgender athletes in sports, immigration. brian kemp is aiming for more of the middle. >> thank you for that update. now from the peach state, let's head up to the keystone state. you see right now, that is a republican-held seat. the republican incumbent not running for re-election here. this one is especially important for democrats because all year it's been the only one of those red states that democrats have had the lead in the polling. it's a potential pickup for democrats. again, we got new numbers from that "new york times" poll out of pennsylvania today, fetterman, the democrat, continuing to lead mehmet oz the republican. we did mention this in the last segment now, most of this poll was conducted before that debate last week between fetterman and oz and in the final day of that polling, oz was doing a little bit better in the polling than he had in the other days. a bit of an open question there about do we know the full measure of what that debate did in terms of fallout. let's bring in a national political reporter with "the philadelphia inquirer." he's been following this race closely. let's pick up on that. that debate, obviously, much anticipated. we're getting to be close to a week out from it. we get a little bit of a measure of the fallout. how are the campaigns feeling about the fallout from that debate and where this race stands right now? >> both campaigns, both in their posture, advertising, spending, they show you that this is a jump ball here with a weak to go. both sides think they can win. momentum has been moving in the republicans' direction for some time now. the question is, does oz hit a ceiling? she's still carrying significant negative public image and so does he hit a ceiling eventually with voters. but republicans feel like, look, they have momentum behind them already. the debate, they think, went their way, they expect that they could see more gains as more polls come out that fully capture the effectiveness of that debate. >> we appreciate that update. continuing just our whiparound here. let's out west, let's go to nevada. and, again, right now, cortez masto, democratic incumbent here, one that republicans are hoping to pick off. you see, again, new "new york times" numbers this morning adam laxalt, cortez masto, dead even in that poll. it looks like it's been the closest consistently of the democratic-held seats. joining me ceo of the nevada independent, political analyst, all-around nevada political expert. john, look, you know nevada politics better than anyone else. how do you read this race a week out? >> i think it's close. every poll has shown the real issue i think for the democrats is as you know, they usually build up a significant lead in the early voting period which is much more predictive in nevada. it's about 3% or so statewide. election day is going to be even more important here than it usually is. the key to this whole thing is the independent vote here, steve, which has gotten much bigger over the last couple of years and how they lean and they are 8% for laxalt in that poll you put up there. if they go double digits for the republican candidate, i think catherine cortez masto is going to lose. >> all right. i am sure we'll be seeing and hearing a lot from you over the next eight days. thank you for taking a minute and updating us right now. coming up, a 2020 rematch. what midterm voters say about the possibility of former president biden and president biden running again. how both parties are hoping to use issues to drive turnout. >> i feel like my rights and my livelihood are constantly at stake. onstantly at stake. breakthrough heartburn... means your heartburn treatment is broken. try zegerid otc. it contains the leading medicine to treat frequent heartburn, uniquely designed for absorption. get all day, all night relief with zegerid otc. it's the subway series menu. 12 irresistible subs. the most epic sandwich roster ever created. ♪♪ it's subway's biggest refresh yet! if you have this... consider adding this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare. medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. so if you have this... consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today for your free decision guide. ♪ my asthma felt anything but normal. ♪ ♪ it was time for a nunormal with nucala. nucala is a once-monthly add-on treatment for severe eosinophilic asthma that can mean less oral steroids. not for sudden breathing problems. allergic reactions can occur. get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. infections that can cause shingles have occurred. don't stop steroids unless told by your doctor. tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. may cause headache, injection site reactions, back pain, and fatigue. ask your asthma specialist about a nunormal with nucala. kids getting hooked on flavored tobacco, including e-cigarettes. big tobacco lures them in with flavors like lemon drop and bubble gum, candy flavors that get them addicted to tobacco products, and can lead to serious health consequences, even harming their brain development. that's why pediatricians urge you to vote yes on prop 31. it stops the sale of dangerous flavored tobacco and helps protect kids from nicotine addiction. please vote yes on 31. vote yes on prop 31. we keep talking about that potential for record-shattering turnout in next week's midterm election. what are the issues that would drive voters to come to the polls and potentially historic numbers. a new readout from gallop, let's take a look here at what voters are saying are the most important issues on their mind heading into this election next week. these are issues that voters rate as extremely important, again, the top of the list, the economy. you see abortion, again, months after that supreme court ruling, second most important, crime, gun policy, immigration now. here's the question, what are voters saying in terms of when they rank an issue as extremely important, which party do they prefer on that issue? crucial question here, so let's take a look again from the gallup numbers. and you can see on the economy, the single most important issue here, republicans, look at that advantage here, this is with registered voters in the gallop poll, 31 points. on abortion, it's not as lopsided but it is a double-digit democratic party advantage and you see on crime and on gun policy and immigration, republican advantages as well. so, again, these new numbers just out this morning from gallop underscoring that above all, it is the economy, it is abortion, those are the top two issues that are on voters' minds, it seems, as they prepare to head to the polls. joining me to discuss more of this, we have with us, the editor of commentator magazine and donna edwards from maryland and a columnist at "the washington post." thank you for joining us. donna, let me start with you. i don't know if you can still see it, when i look at that, four of the top five issues, republicans, it seems, have an advantage on, when you ask voters how they're going to vote. there's a lot that democrats are putting on abortion in this election. do you think it will be enough? >> it is. i think it's a question of turnout and which voters are going to drive that turnout, and i think democrats calculate that abortion is going to drive turnout of young people in particular and women and especially independent and suburban women. and so i think that's why the focus on abortion -- look, you can't ignore this chart right here. when i look at it, i see the reverse of 2016 and then 2020 where immigration was at the top of these -- of these lists. so, you know, i'm looking for democrats to, you know, really hone in on the voters there, trying to turn out on november 8th. >> john, let me flip it around to you. there's -- we talked about this at the top of the show, pick your poll average. the numbers are a bit all over the place right now. but they're relatively close on the generic ballot, i think. the most lopsided you're going to find is republicans by 2.9. there's other average that is have it closer. when you look at the republicans having this kind of advantage on four of the five most important issues, should the republican advantage be bigger in the generic -- in the generic average? is there something that's being missed here? is there another factor, perhaps, that's keeping this tighter than you might expect looking at the poll numbers? >> something is hinkie here. we'll know what it is when the count comes in because these numbers are not connecting properly. this atmosphere as that chart shows is so dramatically leaning toward the republicans on the issue sets that americans care about, that the relative -- not relative, but the actual sort of tight as a tick nature of the generic ballot doesn't compute somehow. and i -- not only that, but in these very close senate races, the polling that we had this morning which shows democrats ahead in three of the four states that are going to decide control of senate and tied in the fourth, again, don't seem to have any relation to the fact that republicans are absolutely crushing it on the issues with people who say they're going to vote. so i would turn to you, steve, and ask you, how you make sense out of it. i'm just -- i'm baffled. this should not be happening. >> it does. it feels like -- when i look at these numbers, donna, it's -- it's a degree to which we haven't seen in past midterm elections. there's mixed signals out there. in the run-up to 2018, we were getting strong indicators that democrats were poised to have a big year. you think back to 2010, it was very clear indicators republicans were poised to have a big year in 2010 and they did. and i feel right now, a week out, you can kind of make a case that this could all kind of break republicans way pretty divisively in the final days or end up more of a muddle. is there more uncertainty than we've seen in the past? >> i look at this and i agree. this should be a runaway for republicans given the top issues that voters seem to be concerned about. the challenge here is that we can't factor in questions about how people feel about democracy, questions about how people feel about republican leadership. all of those things that are kind of baked into these numbers. and i think that's what gives democrats hope, that they might actually be able to pull this out because so many of these races are going to be decided by one or 2% in an environment that has historically given republicans the store in the house and the senate. >> there is potentially another x-factor here and we're going to get it in the next block. coming up, it's the trump factor. how much will the former president help or hurt republicans and we've all been watching for that latest polling from the swing states. we'll get to that as well. t to . 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is there why there may be some uncertainty. trump's fingerprints are all over a lot of these republican candidacies. you look at ohio, he endorsed jd vance in the primary. it may be the reason that jd vance is the nominee in ohio. other states where trump had an enormous influence, he recruited herschel walker into the race in georgia. walker is trailing in that poll we showed today. you take a look at pennsylvania, mehmet oz was a trump-endorsed candidate. we saw him trailing in that poll. in the governor's race in pennsylvania, doug mastriano trailing shapiro. you can see the trump effect in nevada. laxalt endorsed by trump in the primary. governor's race in nevada, again, trump endorsed candidate there. there are other examples. that's one of the features of the primary season this year. it was donald trump getting involved. he didn't win every time, but he won a lot in terms of getting candidates or republican nominations who might not have gotten them otherwise. the presence of so many trump-aligned candidates, what affect is that going to have? john, let me ask you a specific question here when we talk about the trump effect. i noticed the saturday before the election, donald trump is scheduled to have a rally in pennsylvania with mehmet oz. you look at why donald trump lost pennsylvania in 2020 after winning in 2016. there's those four suburb counties just outside of philadelphia where trump -- if trump had just gotten the numbers in 2020 in those counties that he got in 2016, he would have erased his entire statewide deficit. he lost big in those suburbs, those suburban voters, the voters republicans are trying to win back. is mehmet oz bringing in donald trump to pennsylvania the weekend before the election, is that risking in that -- is that an example of a republican risking the very voters the republicans are counting on in these midterm elections? >> i'm not sure, because i think, you know, donna mentioned in the last segment that democrats need to turnout their voters. they need intensity among their voters in order to prevail in some of these races. and you could see the reverse here in the case with mehmet oz and trump, the four days before election day, which is that maybe they're seeing a little softness in some of this republican, like, ornery republican vote and they want more enthusiasm and they want enthusiasm that may be the trump base can bring, conversely, i think, you mentioned that trump had this role in getting these problematic candidates nominated and i think that's his legacy here which is that probably these races with more conventional republican candidates would have been put away by now. that they're close, but that's baked in the cake. the problem is the candidates themselves, not really their relationship to trump, i don't think. and i think it's a bank shot for democrats to be basing their hopes or focusing too much hope on a person who is not on the ballot. that that may not really work very well. i think it had a good effect on fund-raising in august when trump re-emerged because of the search of mar-a-lago and his temper tantrum about it and all of that, reminding democrats how much they disliked him and raising money and new enthusiasm. but i think that was a bit of a sugar high and went away and i think now, really, it is just these dogfights between these candidates. >> yeah, i wonder if that idea john is putting out there, trump's name is not on the ballot. his presence is here, but his name is not on the ballot. could this work for democrats? i'm thinking of -- there's a voter out there, talking about the suburbs of philadelphia and suburbs all over the place, doesn't like biden much, that what we're seeing in the polls, doesn't like the democrats, but also doesn't like donald trump. is that voter persuadable for democrats right now just based on trump's continuing presence? >> well, here's the thing. the voters that democrats, for example, when they put barack obama on the road, they know that not only does he appeal to the base, but also he doesn't turn off independents and those swing voters. i think that's the difference between having a donald trump on the road and having a barack obama on the road. so the ability to gin up the base and appeal to those swing voters. and i think the voters that we're talking about, we're not talking about democratic voters. we're talking about suburb women who may be republicans who are concerned about abortion and the tone of elections, what they want their children to see. donald trump is a complete turnoff to those voters. we saw that in 2020 and i think that same effect is going to be true in 2022. you can imagine, mehmet oz and donald trump on the same stage, it's going to be a reminder to those voters about how much they dislike donald trump and they attribute that to mehmet oz. >> the saturday before the election, this coming saturday, you're going to have obama and biden in philadelphia and trump out west in pennsylvania and then tuesday, we're going to find out who wins. donna edwards, john, thank you both for joining us. why is the new york democratic governor in a potentially close race there? what is happening in the empire state and some other significant governors' races? we're going to look at those next. es we're going to look at those next [coughing] hi, susan. honey. yeah. i respect that. but that cough looks pretty bad. try this robitussin honey. the real honey you love, plus the powerful cough relief you need. mind if i root through your trash? robitussin. the only brand with real honeyand elderberry. before we begin, i'd like to thank our sponsor, liberty mutual. they customize your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. and by switching, you could even save $652. thank you, liberty mutual. now, contestants ready? go! why? why? only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty.♪ announcer: type 2 diabetes? only pay for what you need. discover the power of 3 in the ozempic® tri-zone. in my ozempic® tri-zone, i lowered my a1c, cv risk, and lost some weight. announcer: ozempic® provides powerful a1c reduction. in studies, the majority of people reached an a1c under 7 and maintained it. ozempic® lowers the risk of major cardiovascular events such as stroke, heart attack, or death in adults also with known heart disease. and you may lose weight. adults lost up to 14 pounds. ozempic® isn't for people with type 1 diabetes. don't share needles or pens, or reuse needles. don't take ozempic® if you or your family ever had medullary thyroid cancer, or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, or if allergic to it. stop ozempic® and get medical help right away if you get a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, or an allergic reaction. serious side effects may include pancreatitis. gallbladder problems may occur. tell your provider about vision problems or changes. taking ozempic® with a sulfonylurea or insulin may increase low blood sugar risk. side effects like nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea may lead to dehydration, which may worsen kidney problems. join the millions already taking ozempic®. ask your health care provider about the ozempic® tri-zone. announcer: you may pay as little as $25 for a 3-month prescription. for people living with h-i-v, keep being you. and ask your doctor about biktarvy. biktarvy is a complete, one-pill, once-a-day treatment used for h-i-v in certain adults. it's not a cure, but with one small pill, biktarvy fights h-i-v to help you get to and stay undetectable. that's when the amount of virus is so low it cannot be measured by a lab test. research shows people who take h-i-v treatment every day and get to and stay undetectable can no longer transmit h-i-v through sex. serious side effects can occur, including kidney problems and kidney failure. rare, life-threatening side effects include a buildup of lactic acid and liver problems. do not take biktarvy if you take dofetilide or rifampin. tell your doctor about all the medicines and supplements you take, if you are pregnant or breastfeeding, or if you have kidney or liver problems, including hepatitis. if you have hepatitis b, do not stop taking biktarvy without talking to your doctor. common side effects were diarrhea, nausea, and headache. if you're living with hiv, keep loving who you are. and ask your doctor if biktarvy is right for you. the u.s. capitol up for grabs next tuesday, it's a bunch of state capitals across the country. some extremely significant governor's races taking shape here. some that could have big implications for 2024. big picture, everything you see shaded in here is a state that's holding a governor's race next tuesday and the party that currently controls that state. now, if it were up to me, we'd go through every one of them but that would take about six and a half hours so let's go through a couple of the most significant governor's races and the dynamics defining them now. let's start in florida. that is where ron desantis is running for re-election again charlie crist, the republican turned democrat, former governor. you see desantis enjoying a comfortable lead. would he run? would he challenge trump? trump who backed him aggressively does not seem as enthusiastic about desantis. would he parlay a campaign into 2024? this might be teeing up a story line we'll be following after the election. from florida, we take a look at the next one. pennsylvania. we mentioned this. doug mastriano here who's leaned hard into donald trump and his claims about the 2020 election. pennsylvania very central to that. running against democrat, josh shapiro, the state attorney general. mastriano, not in a close race according to the polling. a senate race much closer. could shapiro do so well he pulls john fetterman over the top in that senate race? a possibility. another key governor's race to keep an eye on. new york. here's the polling average in new york. kathy hochul took over the job when cuomo resigned. lee zeldin, this has been a wild card. it would assume hochul would win comfortably, but the margin getting tight. if some kind of republican wave takes shape next tuesday across the country, this is the kind of race that could get very, very interesting on election night. we'll see. suddenly on folks radar. similar story when you look at michigan. gretchen whitmer, tutor dixon. she still leads in the average, but it's gotten much closer. then there is arizona. kari lake, katie hobbs. lake, again, like mastriano we just mentioned in pennsylvania's leaned hard into donald trump. his claims about 2020. there's the entire republican slate in arizona that ran with trump's backing in the primary. all four of those major offices, but lake unlike mastriano in pennsylvania, not just competitive, she's been leading in the polling in arizona so an interesting potential question here if lake wins this election, she becomes the governor of arizona. what could that mean for 2024 given what she has said about 2020? given what some of her fellow republican candidates have said about 2020. vaughn hilliard is in phoenix. he's covering that governor's race and vaughn, yeah, i think the fact that here we are a week out from election day and it's close, but lake has had the lead in a number of polls that have been taken out there. has this surprised democrats out there? how are they feeling about this race and what's your sense of where things stand now? >> reporter: there's anxiety and anxiousness especially on the democratic side. when you look at the poll numbers for the governor's race, but also the senate race with mark kelly. the secretary of state race. the attorney general's race. you are seeing tight, tight margins here. we are on the border of phoenix and scottsdale. where you have seen a willingness among voters, especially those typical conservative mccain voters who showed a willingness to vote democrat in the pass. go back to 2018. remember these are the very voters that picked doug deucey by 14 points. at the same time, they voted for democrat kirsten sinema, but also picked hobbs to be secretary of state. they picked a republican to be attorney general. they picked a democratic to be superindent of public instruction so we may be looking at voters picking republican on one hand, democrats on the other. i want to let everybody hear from the attorney general last night on 60 minutes, this is an individual who ran for the u.s. senate but came increasingly under scrutiny by republicaning to investigate 2020. i want to let you hear his new public comments talking about voter fraud allegations. take a listen. >> we as prosecutors deal in facts and evidence and i'm not like the clowns that throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks. i think there are a lot of clowns out there that saw what they wanted to see. simon and garfunkel line, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest. there's a lot of that going on. >> reporter: that's a republican attorney general one week before the election essentially calling those including likes of kari lake, a clown, for continuing to perpetuate these claims of voter fraud. you see it in the polling numbers here. right now, lake has a very reasonable shot at becoming arizona's next governor, steve. >> all right out there in phoenix, thank you for that. by the way, there's another reason that i'm standing not too far from the capitol today. not just because of the looming midterm elections, but because of the podcast i'm launching today. the idea, the origin can be traced back to the mid 1990s and in particular to what they call the republican revolution. in 1994, a republican takeover of congress and the rise and fall of newt gingrich as the leader of the republican party. the podcast called the revolution with steve kornacki and for part of this, i sat down with joe scarborough. i talked to him about a race he was never expected to win. >> i remember on election night the race was supposed to be tight. i was 31 years old. i was inexperienced, running against a guy who's the member of the most powerful political family in the area and the returns started coming in. they had me early on in the night, i was like 65 to 35%. and the people i was watching returns with were going oh, my god, look how much you're winning. i'm like, i don't think that's right. i think they've got the numbers reversed. that went on. finally about an hour in, i called the news station, wear and i called the news desk. i said hey, this is joe scarborough, i keep looking at these returns. i think you've got the numbers mixed up. i remember the guy at the desk said, no we don't, congressman. you're on your way to a landslide victory. >> 1994 truly was a huge shock. i think the start of the nationalized red versus blue politics. i hope you'll check out the politics. you can scan this code on the screen, check out all six episodes of the revolution with steve kornacki. they are all available now. thank you for joining us. it was a busy hour. i appreciate you being here. "andrea mitchell reports" is next. here. "andrea mitchell reports" is next nancy pelosi's husband still in intensive care is recovering from that violent attack. the suspect, whose blog posts highlighted extremism, facing attempted homicide as well as possible federal charges today. this just eight days ahead of the midterms with former president obama blasting election denying